Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 25/01/22

Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple and usually brief report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is, and has always been, that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And here's how Tuesday's Shortlist looks...

...with quite a few interesting runners. In addition to this report, we've our usual selection of 'free' races...

  • 1.10 Down Royal
  • 2.40 Down Royal
  • 3.00 Lingfield
  • 4.20 Leicester

One of the more interesting Shortlist horses runs in the last of the free races, so I'm going to take a quick look at Tuesday's 4.20 Leicester with half an eye on the chances of Mr Grey Sky in this 9-runner, soft (heavy in places) ground, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a right handed 1m7½f...

In fairness, none of these are in any great form, but Made For You has at least won twice with one runner-up finish in his last five outings and only stablemate Tinnahalla has a win visible in the formline of the other eight runners. Lignou drops in class after a string of poor results, whilst old-timer (14 now and well past his best before date IMO) Applesandpierres is stepped up in class after finally completing a race last time out.

To be honest, I've interest in either class mover, Apples finished 00PUP prior to being beaten by 32 lengths LTO and now steps up in class? No thanks! As for Lignou : last of 8, 7th of 9 and 8th of 10 at an average margin of defeat of over 20 lengths, he'll need more than another drop in class. I've seen enough of these two already, I won't be backing either.

Shortlist horse, Mr Grey Sky is making a second appearance in a handicap, as is First Angel, but the latter certainly fared of the two on debut. Krypton Gold makes a handicap debut after just three previous NH efforts, where he ran well on debut eight weeks ago, but has been beaten by 24L and 18L in two runs since. He hasn't shown enough for me so far to be considered a winner here, even if his yard are going well right now.

Quiana also makes a second start in a handicap, but it has been 334 days since he last ran and he was only 6th of 7 on handicap debut. His yard are also in good form, but I suspect this one will need the run.

Stablemates Tinnahalla and Made For You along with Shortlist horse Mr Grey Sky hail from yards with a good record at this venue and the latter's jockey has performed well here too.

I didn't intend to eliminate so many runners from my considerations so early in the piece, but the more I looked at them, the less I liked some of the runners and I'm already at the point, where I won't be backing Lignou, Applesandpierres, Quiana and Krypton Gold for the reasons above, even if their Instant Expert stats below make me look foolish...

Of the discards, Applesandpierres is the one most likely to cause me embarrassment until you consider that our figures don't include French races and his last five runs in France saw him 14th of 16 on soft, 15th of 16 on soft, PU on heavy, UR on soft and then PU on soft, so his numbers really aren't as good as they first seem. Mr Grey Sky shows well, as you expect via The Shortlist as do the two Olly Murphy horses at the top of the card.

One of those Olly Murphy horses, Tinnahalla, looks like the one who'll be setting the pace here with old-timer Applesandpierres the probable back marker, based on their last four races...

and if I had to choose one of those before I'd seen the pace stats for this type of race, I think I'd want to be on a front runner, because I definitely don't want to be on Apples! Thankfully, thr pace stats for past similar races point to the pacesetters being the ones to follow...

and when we look at the average pace score of our runners...

...I think that I want to be with the first four on that chart. We need to apply a little logic/common sense here, though. Made For You and First Angel are third ranked, but if they race in that order, they'll not be Mid-Div/Prominent, they'll be prominent, just as Tinnahalla will be the leader, so in effect the top four need moving half a square or so to the right, like this...

...and think is how I think they'll break out and these are the four I'm most keen on here.

Summary

I've taken our nine-runner field down to four, keeping both Olly Murphy runners in the fold...

Tinnahalla looks like the pacemaker and finished 2141 in his first four races of 2021, including a heavy ground win. He was beaten into second place by his re-opposing stablemate here over course and distance last time out, going down by just half a length after being headed on the run-in. That was just over eight weeks ago now and he's since had a wind op and is 4lbs better off with Made For You, who has raced again since that C&D win, going down as a runner-up by a length and three quarters over an extra three furlongs.

The 4lbs pull should be enough for Tinnahalla to reverse the placings, but I think it'll be a couple of runs before he feels the benefit of the surgery and that Made For You is just in great form right now. I think it'll be tight again, but I've got Made For You beating Tinnahalla again here. They're my 1-2 today and they're both available at 6/1,

The bookies also see this as a close race, as my 1-2 are are behind Happy And Fine (5/1), Krypton Gold (5/1) and Quiana (11/2) in a congested market where just three points (5/1 to 8/1) separates the first seven in the market. Happy And Fine will, of course, be up with the pace and I've got him very closely matched with First Angel to make the frame, but I believe the latter is in slightly better form, his yard are in better form and his 8/1 price tag offers me (a) a bit more value and (b) an E/W opportunity, so I'm hoping that First Angel chases the Murphy horses home.

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