Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 26/04/22

Tuesday's free GOLD feature is The Shortlist, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information] and here's how it looks for this Tuesday...

...unsurprisingly mainly made up of runners from the big Punchestown meeting that I tend to swerve, so I'm going to look at the daily free list of racecards, which come from all points North, South, East & West...

  • 1.35 Yarmouth
  • 3.58 Brighton
  • 4.15 Punchestown
  • 8.30 Ayr

It's another small field, I'm afraid, but the 'best' of the UK free races is the 3.58 Brighton, a 6-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ fillies flat handicap over a left-handed 1m2f on good to firm ground...

Thunder Queen is the only LTO winner, but all bar Passionova have at least one win from their last five outings. The latter drops down a class here, but the former is up two levels since that LTO success. Mystic Wells & Undertheboardwalk both step up one class with both making just a second handicap start, as is the afore mentioned Thunder Queen.

Jewel In the Crown is the only previous course winner (over a mile), but she has won over 1m2f at Nottingham whilst Enfranchise won over this trip on the A/W at both Chelmsford & Lingfield. Undertheboardwalk & Jewel In The Crown are making seasonal bows after breaks of 157 and 220 days respectively, but the other four have all been out in the last four weeks.

Mystic Wells and Thunder Queen are both 3 yr olds and receive a whopping 17lbs weight for age allowance here, which could be telling. Plenty of trainers/jockeys with positive form/track icons and it looks like an interesting contest at this point, but I'd say Undertheboardwalk looks weakest right now and the bookies early show had it as a 4-way contest excluding Passionova and Undertheboardwalk....

PASSIONOVA
Won 2 of 6 last season, but hasn't really fired this term just yet, finishing last of seven and eighth of nine in two Class 2 ,A/W runs over a mile. Now up in trip again and despite a good to firm win over 7f at HQ last season, her form is a worry and top weight won't help, even if she is down in class.

JEWEL IN MY CROWN
Won here over a mile last season as part of a campaign that saw her go 3 from 7, including wins over this trip and over a half furlong further. The trip isn't an issue, but she's needing a career best effort here and a 220-day layoff might take its toll on quick ground.

ENFRANCHISE
Made her debut just 54 weeks ago, but has been busy clocking up 11 starts to date. Has won 4 of the 11 and 2 of 5 this year already, including two over today's trip. Just one run on turf to date, winning over a mile at Pontefract on good to firm ground, so she's in the mix.

UNDERTHEBOARDWALK
Just four starts so far, winning a 7f Novice event at Salisbury on debut, but displaying little else as last of 12, 9th of 13 and last of 10 in three runs since. Off track for over five months, she'll need to have improved dramatically to get involved here.

MYSTIC WELLS
Placed in two of four on the Flat and only beaten by a length over this trip as a runner-up last time out despite coming off a 163 day absence. Entitled to improve for the run. Whether she's got more to give is unclear, but a 17lb weight allowance will certainly help.

THUNDER QUEEN
Is also lightly raced, but has won two of four including just getting up on the line last time out over a mile at Winsdor. She gets that 17lb allowance too, but us up in both trip and class. Still holds chances here, though.

An inexperienced field means that Instant Expert is a bit light on data, but it does tell us that...

...three have already won on ground this quick and that two are proven at the trip, as per the comments above. Past similar runnings of small field, 1m2f, good to firm ground handicaps here at Brighton don't show a massive draw bias...

...especially if we treat the stats for stalls 6 & 6 as one stall. Stall 4 has a slightly inferior return, but there's no real rhyme or reason why just one stall would fare better or worse than all the others, so putting draw to one side (for now), it's going to be a case of race tactics and sheer ability. The latter is more 'gut feeling' and a matter of opinion, so let's consider tactics first aka 'pace'. Those 50-odd race above have tended to be won by horses keen to get on with things. Prominent racers and then leaders have the best win records and vice versa for the places...

...which is probably going to suit the likes of Enfranchise most...

Summary

For me it's Enfranchise based on my initial write-up/thoughts, Instant Expert plus the pace profiling. She ticks more boxes than the others and at 10/3, she might be a nice price.

I didn't really like Passionova and Undertheboardwalk from the start, nor do the bookies, so that leaves Jewel, Mystic and Thunder vying for runner-up spot. I think the extra weight carried by the 4yr old Jewel is a negative so she's out.

Of Mystic Wells and Thunder Queen, my heart says the latter based on the odds, but I don't think there's much between them and she's up two classes as opposed to Mystic Wells' one step up and Thunder Queen is actually 1lb out of the handicap, so I'll go with Mystic Wells as my runner-up. She also has a better pace profile.

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