The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.
GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points
The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.
HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
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Here are my qualifiers on Tuesday's Shortlist...
...where we've a couple of "15's" that must be worth at least a quick look. As ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover...
- 2.35 Leicester
- 2.50 Catterick
- 3.20 Catterick
And of the two "15's", Cat Tiger's race is the highest-rated so let's look at the 4.35 Leicester, a 7-runner, Class 3, 6yo+ Hunter Chase over almost 2m7f after rail movements. It's a right-handed track and here are the runners set to tackle 18 fences on heavy ground...
None of these seven managed to win last time out under Rules, although Espoir de Tellee does come here off the back of a win in a 3m point to point on soft ground 23 days ago, whilst Benny's King was a runner-up (albeit 15L behind the winner) at Wetherby a day earlier. Shang Tang has made the frame in each of his last two, but neither Percussion nor Hardline have won any of their last seven (9 & 23 repectively to be precise)
The top three on the card all ran at Class 5 on their last course outing, so are up two classes, but Percussion drops down two after finishing 5th of 14 at Class 1, having made the frame at both Classes 1 & 2 in his two previous runs. The last horse on the card, Shang Tang moves up one class here and Gallyhill makes a debut under Rules for his new trainer, although he did run in a PTP five weeks ago for this handler.
Espoir de Tellee won this race off today's mark last year and Cat Tiger landed it in 2021, so they're both former course and distance winners, but none of their rivals have won here before (mind you, only Percussion has been here) and only Benny's King has won over a similar trip, landing a 2m6½f chase at Newbury.
Instant Expert doesn't have much relevant data for this one...
...but it does highlight the two former winners' suitability and poses questions about Gallyhill's record at Class 3 and that of Percussion over 2m6f to 3m, although a deeper dig suggests that his place form is rock solid...
The last three renewals of this race have been won by horses racing prominently or setting the pace and more generally speaking here at Leicester that has proven to be the case in 5-9 runner, 2m5f-3m chases on soft/heavy ground...
...which based on the field's most recent efforts would put the likes of Hardline and Shang Tang at a severe disadvantage...
Summary
Hardline and Shang Tang don't look well suited by the pace stats here and the former has forgotten how to win, whilst the latter would prefer a shorter trip. I'll add Gallyhill to this list of discards based on both his more recent racecourse form and the heavy PTP defeat he suffered last time out.
That leaves me with four (Benny's King, Cat Tiger, Espoir de Tellee and Percussion) to choose from and the truth is that any of the four could win or make the frame, so I'd be wanting a bit of value if I'm putting money down on a fairly tight contest. With that in mind, it's time to look at the 5.30pm market, which looks like this...
I can understand why Percussion is favourite after some decent efforts at a higher grade of late, but I'm not keen on backing 5/2 favourites who have managed to find at least one too good for thm in each of their last nine outings. he might well be the best in the race, but I'm not on at 5/2. Cat Tiger is the next in the market from my list and similarly, he also lacks value at 7/2. Yes, he loves it here and won the race three years ago, but hasn't won a race for 25 months and hasn't competed a race for 15 months, so I'll pass on him too, leaving me with last year's winner Espoir de Tellee at 11/2 and Benny's King at 13/2.
I'm tempted to back Espoir to retain the race and to go E/W on Benny's King. Sure, I'd prefer 8/1 (my normal E/W threshold) about the latter, but it's only a 7-runner race.
Please Note : No column tomorrow (Tuesday), as I'm away at my father in law's funeral, but I'll be back Wednesday for a Thursday race preview.
