Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/05/24

The Shortlist is Tuesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and it's a simple (usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day and it covers win or place stats for both the current and the next day's racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 pointsThe final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.
N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation has always been that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form and its odds might imply.
My fairly restrictive settings (you get to choose your own) for The Shortlist have generated the following qualifiers......and as ever, the daily feature is complemented by a selection of fully functional racecards opened up to all readers and for Tuesday they cover the following...

  • 4.55 Leicester
  • 5.20 Brighton
  • 5.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.30 Ballinrobe
  • 6.55 Bangor
  • 8.30 Ballinrobe

...from which I think I'll have a look at the Secret Handsheikh vs Jacquelina battle from The Shortlist in the 2.15 Brighton, an 8-runner (fingers crossed!), Class 6, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 5f 60yds on good ground...

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Sole LTO winner Jacquelina arrives here seeking a three-week hat-trick after a heavy ground win over 5f at Windsor and a good ground course and distanc esuccess here a week ago and she is, in fact, the only one of the eight to have made the frame on their last run, but at least all bar bottom-weight and 8-race maiden Haveagobeau have won at least one of their last seven outings.

Haveagobeau's cause isn't helped by not having had a run for eight months either, when all bar Boom The Groom (rested for 60 days) of his rivals have raced in the last month. Better news for Mokaatil, Alpine Girl and the fast-finishing Secret Handsheikh, though, as they all drop down a class to run here.

As an eight-race maiden, Haveagobeau is the only runner in the field yet to win at either track or trip with all seven rivals having won at least once over a similar distance. Jacquelina isn't the only course and distance winner, though, as Batchelor Boy, Secret Handsheikh and Cabeza de Llave (spanner head in Spanish?) have all also achieved the feat, whilst 116-race veteran Boom The Groom has won here over 6f...

As you'd expect from their places on The Shortlist, both Jacquelina and Secret Handsheikh fare well on Instant Expert, as does Alpine Girl off an admittedly small sample size. Mokaatil and Batchelor Boy would probably prefer the ground to be a bit quicker, Haveagobeau has won a race of any description and Boom The Groom's 'better' recent form has been on A/W tracks away from Brighton. Batchelor Boy also has a terrible win record here on this track at 1 from 14 and only 3 placed efforts in his 13 defeats...

I often use the place stats to cross runners off my list of possibles and Haveagobeau has to go now. I knew he hadn't won a race, but the above data says he hasn't been getting close either and he's clearly the weakest of the eight. Batchelor Boy's record on good ground causes concerns, but he has gone well at this class and trip, whilst his 29% place strike rate isn't horrific.

Past races here haven't shown a massive (in my opinion, anyway) draw bias, as those drawn low have a lower win percentage but a higher place ration than those drawn further out, suggesting that there's not a great deal to be had from the draw...

...whilst it's a different story from the pace angle...



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...with those willing to set the pace getting the best results, especially if drawn low to mid-field...

...which based on the field's recent efforts could be more very good news for Jacquelina from her fairly central draw...

Summary

More pictures than words today, but that's sometimes more helpful. And it's probably no surprise that I'm suggesting Jacquelina as my likeliest winner here. She's in great form, scores well on The Shortlist and Instant Expert and has a good pace/draw profile for this race. Fellow featured runner Secret Handsheikh also looks to be in with a good shout of making the frame and if pushed for a third placer, I'd probably look towards Batchelor Boy on his recent form line, even if conditions aren't exactly ideal here for him.

No odds available at 3.15pm Monday, but I'd expect to see something like Jacquelina 3/1, Secret Handsheikh 4/1, Batchelor Boy 6/1, so none would be E/W viable if those odds are right, unfortunately.Please Note No column tomorrow (Tuesday for Wednesday) racing as I'm away at a family funeral. Normal Service resumes Wednesday, of course.

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