Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 28/11/23

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

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N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

And we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

  • 12.15 Sedgefield
  • 2.20 Sedgefield
  • 2.30 Tramore

Truth be told, the racing on offer in the UK for Tuesday looks dreadful at best, with the highest rated races being half a dozen Class 4 affairs including a pair of Novice races and a mares' maiden! Of the other three, two have just seven runners and as I do like to look for E/W value, I want more than seven runners, so we've landed on the 2.10 Southwell, an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap hurdle for conditional jockeys, where the trip is a left-handed 3m½f on heavy ground...

We've no LTO winners in the field, but the fast-finishing Steal My Sunshine has won two of his last three and only Mountain Leopard is winless in his last five, although Stratton Oakmount's run of form reading 1P12 came in Irish PTP contests. That said, it proves he stays and jumps and can carry 12 stones!

Ithaka's second run in a tongue-tie sees him drop down from Class 3 (16th of 18), whilst Glance from Clover (8th of 10) and Lelantos (7th of 12) both step up a class despite faring badly last time out and the former won't be helped by not having raced for 204 days.

Mind you, he's not the only one coming off a break, as Mountain Leopard and Our Bill's Aunt return from layoffs of 197 and 227 days respectively, with the other five runners all having had a run in the last month.

Lelantos is the sole runner to have either won here at Southwell or over a similar trip to this one and he has, in fact, won over course and distance, albeit just over two years ago off a mark 6lbs lower than today. That aside, Instant Expert suggests that none of the field have gone particularly well under today's expected conditions...

...where Lelantos probably shades it, although it's a fairly low bar and I think we're going to need to see the place data...

...where this quintet make most appeal on stats alone...

Three miles-plus on heavy ground might take some getting here at Southwell and from a small number of similar past races, we've found that leaders in 7-1o-runner contests of soft to heavy ground have often struggled to hang on to the lead...

...which, based on their most recent efforts, probably doesn't bode too well for the likes of Pure Theatre, Our Bill's Aunt and Mountain Leopard from the five I highlighted in Instant Expert...

...with those from course and distance winner Lelantos downwards looking better positioned here.


From the five runners I highlighted earlier, Stratton Oakmont and Lelantos make most appeal and I think both have a great chance of a top three finish. But, if I think Stratton Oakmont is going to be in the mix, I then need to consider Steal My Sunshine, who has a similar pace profile to Stratton and finished one place (4L) behind him last time out. Steal My Sunshine is 2lbs better off here and that should reduce the gap, making this pair more evenly matched.

It's not totally unfeasible that they're the first two home here and I think Stratton Oakmont should still just about hold Steal My Sunshine with Lelantos looking useful for a place. Elsewhere, I suspect Mountain Leopard being the biggest challenge to this trio.

No prices available at 3.15pm on Monday, but I'd be hoping for 11/2 or bigger about Stratton Oakmont and I doubt any of the other three will be long enough for me to go E/W, but you might.


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