Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Tuesday 29/03/22

Tuesday's free feature is The Shortlist report, which is a simple (and usually brief) report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREEN is good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBER is quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
RED is not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is (and has always been) that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply.

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

And this is how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Rocky's Treasure interests me most on his first visit to Uttoxeter. In addition to The Shortlist we also have the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 2.05 Fontwell
  • 2.50 Navan
  • 3.00 Uttoxeter
  • 7.00 Wolverhampton

I had a quick look at Rocky's Treasure and whilst it looks like he has favoured conditions at Uttoxeter, he hasn't ran well for some considerable time and at 11 yrs of age probably hasn't got many wins left in him. This leaves me with the free races of which the last lends itself best to toolbox analysis, so we're looking at the 7.00 Wolverhampton, an 8-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 1m4f on standard tapeta...

So, we've three LTO winners on display in Najeeba, Pecy Willis and Red Flyer with the latter seeking a hat-trick and the former coming back from five months off track. The rest of the field have all raced since Najeeba did with five having been out in the last four weeks.

The top four on the card, including two of our LTO winners, are all dropping down from Class 4 action, but bottom weight El Jad moves the opposite direction from Class 6. Red Flyer has won over this trip at Kempton & Lingfield and Najeeba has won over slightly longer at Newcastle, whilst Richard RHB has won here three times over 1m1½f, but we do have two course & distance winners in Percy Willis and Eagle One.

RED FLYER
Three wins and two runner-up finishes from his last five, comes here on a hat-trick just 2lbs higher than an LTO win over this trip at Lingfield but now drops in class, definite chances.

PERCY WILLIS
C&D winner by a short head here LTO 15 days ago on easily his best run to date. Narrow margin means a mere 2lb rise and he should be on the premises once again.

AFKAAR
Just two poor runs three weeks apart in December to date, as last of 9 (12L) over 1m3f on debut at Kempton and then 9th of 11 here over C&D just before New Year. Down 4lbs, down in class and returning from a wind op are all positives, but not today for me.

RICHARD R H B
Loves it here, winning 3 of 6 over 1m1½f, but his failure to even make the frame in six attempts over C&D tells its own story. 5th of 8 behind Percy Willis over C&D LTO and has work to do.

NAJEEBA
Difficult one for me. Arguably the most promising on show here, but hasn't raced since winning quite comfortably over 1m4½f at Newcastle five months ago. Looks leniently treated on handicap debut and could well be the one to beat if ready first up.

EAGLE ONE
Won here over C&D four starts ago and has been a runner-up in his two both at this trip/class, firstly here over C&D and then at Southwell two months ago. He was staying on well both times, but never really looked threatening, if truth be told.

PECKINPAH
0 from 6 on the Flat, 0 from 5 on the A/W and now returns to this sphere after six defeats over hurdles, where he's 0 from 9. Those numbers speak for themselves and he's not winning here either.

EL JAD
Seven starts, all on the A/W without winning any and making the frame just twice. Fifth of nine at Southwell over this trip last week was a creditable effort , but a rise in class isn't helping him win here.

Instant Expert gives us an 'at a glance' form comparison across today's forecasted conditions...

...and I'm not interested in those with a line of red, which quickly takes Afkaar, Peckinpah & El Jad out of the equation. Najeeba looks the best, albeit off a small sample size and could be thrown in off a mark of 68. Richard RHB has some good numbers, but is now 8lbs higher than his last win and his record at 1m4f is lamentable. Percy Willis & Red Flyer are the pick of the pack at this trip.

The draw stats for similar past races suggest stall 4 or higher is the best place to be...

...which is a negative against Red Flyer and Najeeba and yet another for El Jad and when we look at the pace analysis of those contests above, we see that...

...there's not a great deal in it, but hold-up horses do come off worst which is another red cross next to Peckinpah's name...

Summary

I think Najeeba is the best/most promising on show here, but having not raced for over five months, I can't be backing her at 11/10. Don't get me wrong, she should be winning this, she's not up against too much and 11/10 might end up being good value at 7.10pm on Tuesday, but you need deep pockets to be punting at those prices and the size of my styakes don't warrant the risk here.

Will I have a bet? Probably not, if I'm honest. Red Flyer and Percy Willis the most interesting of the rest, but at 9/4 and 13/2 respectively, there's not enough for an E/W punt, although if one touched 8's that would be a different story.

Bottom line is that much depends on Najeeba's readiness first up, but save your money for better races.

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.