Racing Insights, Tuesday 30/05/23 geegeez.co.uk

Tuesday's free offering from the GOLD service is the The Shortlist feature, a simple – and usually brief – report highlighting those horses with a largely ‘green’ profile in the Instant Expert Report each day. It covers win or place stats, and can be viewed for both today’s and tomorrow’s racing.

GREENis good (33% or better win rate) – worth 3 points
AMBERis quite good (16-32% win rate) – worth 1 point
REDis not so good (0-15% win rate) – worth -1 points
GREY means there is no available data for that factor - worth 0 points

The final column, ‘Score’, is the sum of the previous five ‘colour’ columns, with 15 being an all green profile, and 9 being the lowest score appearing on this report.

HINT: The best bets are not necessarily the highest scores. Rather, they are often the biggest difference between a Shortlist horse and the ‘best of the rest’ in that race.

N.B. Shortlist selections are unlikely to make a profit, at SP at least, to blind backing. Our recommendation is – and has always been – that The Shortlist should be a starting point rather than an end in itself. That said, it continues to highlight horses whose chance is better than recent form - and its odds - imply. As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information!

And this how The Shortlist looks for this Tuesday...

...where Vitralite is of the most immediate interest, whilst we do still also have our daily list of 'free' racecards, which are as follows...

2.40 Brighton
6.25 Nottingham
6.30 Ballinrobe
7.00 Ballinrobe
8.30 Ballinrobe

I suspect Vitralite will be very popular based on those Shortlist scores, but that might make him shorter than he should be and it might also up the door for some reasonably priced E/W bets in the 8.25 Nottingham, an 11-runner, Class 5, 4yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m½f on good to firm ground...

No LTO winners on show here, but Vitralite is 113 in his last three outings. Eleven eleven won four starts ago, but the rest of the field are winless in five or more. Vitralite is, however, up in class here, as are Bobby Dassler, Eleven eleven, Pysanka, Long Call and Back from Dubai. The last of those stepping up in class is also making a debut for a new yard, as is Tipperary Moon.

Pysanka is running in a handicap for the second time and now wears a visor for the first time, as he seeks a first win. Fellow 4 yr old Marayel is the only class dropper after finishing third last time out, but that was 113 days ago and only Pysanka (131 days) has been off the track longer. The other nine have all raced in the last five weeks.

No previous course winners on display, but Vitralite, Under Fox, Eleven Eleven and Back from Dubai have all won at a similar trip, whilst Instant Expert backs this up and then tells us that there's not much winning form at either going nor class!

...and that we might need to consult place form in the hope of some positivity...

That's a little better but not great, fingers crossed that draw & pace can help us more!

Or perhaps not, for although those drawn highest haven't done brilliantly in similar races, there's not a massive draw bias here...

...as for pace, those races above have favoured those setting the pace...

...which based on recent outings might be good news for Bobby Dassler and possibly Back from Dubai...

...but there's not really much pace in the race.

Summary

This hasn't taken long, has it? Sadly, it's a far poorer race than I thought it might be and there's no mileage in wasting too much time on mediocrity.

Vitralite is probably the least poor runner in the race, so would be favourite almost by default, but he's 8lbs higher than his last win two starts ago and 4lbs higher than when beaten last time out at a lower class, so whilst he may well be the winner, I'm not backing him at 7/4. That's too short for me, but you make your own decisions about that.

He's the form horse albeit at Class 6, Instant Expert didn't help us, nor did the draw, but pace pointed towards Bobby Dassler and Back from Dubai. Bobby Dassler is probably the main threat to Vitralite, but as the 5/1 second favourite, he's too short for me to go E/W. As for Back from Dubai, he'd be an unlikely winner, but is surely better than the eighth place finish on his last run for Roy Bowring. If Kevin Frost can get him running anywhere like he was at nearby Southwell over the winter and you've got an active Paddy Power account, then 14/1 E/W with 4 places might not be the worst bet you've ever made, but the smart money is here is the money you leave in your pocket and walk away.

It's more than fine to consider a race and then not have a bet, in fact we positively encourage it here at Geegeez.

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