Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 01/06/22

Wednesday's free feature, the Trainer Stats (TS) report, is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent (14/30 day) form, and their longer term (1/5 yr) course form, filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

This feature is, as always, complemented by a selection of 'free' races as follows...

  • 1.20 Nottingham
  • 6.45 Curragh
  • 6.55 Kempton
  • 7.40 Ripon
  • 7.50 Curragh

And I think I'm going to use the TS report to focus on a pair of Roger Varian runners at Kempton, because his record in handicaps there over the last year has been excellent...

Zameka is a 3yo gelding running in a 13-runner, Class 4, 3yo handicap over 7f, whilst Prism is a 3yo filly in an 8-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ handicap over a mile. The going, as is generally the case here, is standard to slow and David Egan takes both rides.

Roger Varian has been on my trainers to watch list in Kempton handicaps for some time during my Stat of the Day era, if truth be known, because since the start of 2016, his handicappers are 32 from 129 (24.8% SR) with a £10 level stake on each generating £287.30 at Betfair SP at an ROI of 22.3%. In regards to Wednesday's pair of runners, the 132 original 'cappers include...

  • 3 yr olds at 19 from 90 (21.1%)
  • males at 24/87 (27.6%)
  • over 6f to 1m : 23/84 (27.4%)
  • at class 4 : 10/50 (20%)
  • females are 8/42 (19.1%)
  • during May to July : 12/31 (38.7%)
  • and David Egan has ridden 5 winners from 18 (27.8%)

So, from a stats point of view, there's certainly some encouragement to take a deeper look, so let's start with Zameka in the 7.30 race...

He has raced just five times so far, finishing 3213 on the A/W before a disappointing effort on turf debut at Ascot almost four weeks ago. Finished 321 in three efforts over this trip, beaten by just 0.75 lengths and then by a neck before finally winning and then was dropped to 6f for a couple of runs. Now back up in trip, back on the A/W and eased a 1lb by the assessor, you'd expect him to give a better account of himself here.

Instant Expert documents his A/W form above, but isn't as bad as it seems. He finished 3rd & 2nd on Std to Slow, he was 3rd on his Class 4 bow, was 3rd of 14 on his first visit to Kempton and 3rd of 12 in his other bigger field contest, so the signs are there that he could be good for at least a place. He's drawn 9 of 13 here and has either led or raced prominently in his four A/W outings to date, so let's check the Geegeez Draw & Pace analysis features...

Stall 9 of 13 is on the cusp of mid to high draw and that stall has done pretty well in the past in comparison to some other stalls. Zameka's tendency to race prominently or lead is certainly the best option over 7f here, as shown by the IV figures of 1.60 and higher and when we check the pace/draw heat map, high drawn front runners fare best of all, which adds further encouragement.

*

Half an hour later, we get to see the filly Prism in the 8.00 race...

She made the frame in three of five runs on turf before an A/W debut last time out that saw her win an 8-runner nursery at Chelmsford on her first attempt at a mile. All good so far, then, but the potential fly in the ointment here is that she now hasn't raced for 207 days, steps up in class and has been raised 4lbs for winning by just half a length. That said, the runner-up has been placed in all three starts since and the third place horse has won both subsequent races, the latest here at Kempton off a mark of 85, so Prism's OR of 77 might not be insurmountable. She's unexposed at this sphere/trip etc and if ready first up could well be involved.

She's drawn pretty centrally in what in now stall 5 of 8 after the non-runner and has tended to race prominently up to now. This is backed up by the report from her A/W debut LTO..."tracked leaders, ridden and asked for effort at 2f, ran on well to lead inside final furlong, always doing enough". The always doing enough suggests there's more to come, which augurs well for her handling the extra 4lbs, of course, whilst the Geegeez Draw & Pace analysis says...

So, a prominent running style isn't disastrous here, as an IV of 0.93 isn't far from par and such runners have been profitable to back, whilst her draw in the upper half of the stalls is definitely a positive. Although not ideal, a mid drawn prominent runner can still win here, even if drawn higher and quicker away is more advantageous. That said, when I look at the rest of the field on the heat map, not many sit in a darker shade of green than Prism.

Summary

Messrs Varian & Egan are in good form (amongst the winners again on Tuesday) and go really well here at Kempton. Both runners here look to have a good chance without being standout candidates and I think both have a great chance of at least making the frame and if you make the frame, you're generally in with a shout of winning.

Both are available at 11/2 and I think those are decent odds. Zameka will probably have to beat Skittlebombz to win and Prism's biggest danger is likely to be King's Joy, ridden by Frankie Dettori, who comes along for just one ride in a Class 4 handicap!

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