Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 1.40 Fakenham
- 2.55 Nottingham
- 5.45 Kempton
- 7.15 Kempton
- 7.45 Kempton
30-day form..
5-year course form...
...from which, the highest-rated race is the 2.55 Nottingham, a 10-runner, Class 3, 3yo+ flat handicap over a straight 5f on heavy ground...
Rambuso Creek is our only LTO winner, but Magnificence, Fantasy Master, Punchbowl Flyer and bottom-weight Impressor all had top-3 finishes, In fact, Impressor has made the frame in 11 of his last 12 starts, winning four times. Only Came From The Dark and Punchbowl Flyer are winless in seven or more (12 & 18 actually!)
Spoof, Woolhampton and Punchbowl Flyer are the quickest turned back out after racing against each other nine days ago in a race I covered here at Windsor, which went like this...
...but their rivals have all raced inside the last 40 days, so all should be tuned up for this. Those three from the Windsor race all now drop down a class, as do Came From The Dark and Strong Johnson, but Magnificence, Rambuso Creek and the consistent Impressor all all up a level.
Only Magnificence and Punchbowl Flyer have yet to win over this trip, whilst only Spoof and Fantasy Master have won here at Nottingham with both having scored over course and distance. Mind you, the latter has had a fair few cracks at this venue, according to Instant Expert...
...which suggests that Spoof, Punchbowl Flyer and Impressor would be most at home with the underfoot conditions. Spoof, however, has a poor win record at Class 3, as do Fantasy Master and Ey Up It's Maggie, but none of this field have exactly set the world alight in this grade. Fantasy Master leads Spoof 3-1 in terms of track wins, but has suffered ten defeats here and he's hardly the master over 5f and nor is Woolhampton. With so little green above, I think we need to check place form from those races...
...which don't really aid the Class 3 claims of Spoof or Fantasy Master, whilst Punchbowl Flyer looks a win or nothing type at this level. Fantasy Master's course form, however, looks pretty good now with him making the frame in 4 of his 10 defeats to go with his 3 wins.
I generally don't expect to see much of a pace bias in a medium-sized field over a straight sprint and despite having to make some logical tweaks to the parameters to get a workable data-set, I still think that's there's no huge bias here either...
Yes, those drawn centrally have the slight upper hand in terms of wins, but has the same number of placed runners as the low draw. If anything, I'd say the higher drawn runners had whatever slight advantage there might be to be had. All that said, it's still a sprint and it's usually a case of fastest away has the best chance of making the frame and you can't win if you're not in the frame and if we look back those 90-odd races above, we see...
...that leaders make the frame most often and also go on to win a larger chunk of the races, which might be good news for both Impressor and Punchbowl Flyer from oposite ends of the draw, if they run like they ran last time out...
Obviously there's no guarantees that will happen, of course, but Punchbowl Flyer has lost 18 races in a row and almost broke that run by switching to front-running last time out when only beaten late on by a fairly short favourite. What I'm more certain of, is that Woolhampton, Came From The Dark and Rambuso Creek lack early pace and this could be an issue for them.
Summary
Punchbowl Flyer is on a long losing run, but ran really well last time out. He loves heavy ground, he's down in class and now runs off a dangerously low mark of 76. He's on my shortlist here along with former course and distance winner Fantasy Master, who might not have a great record at Class 3, but has a win and three places from just five efforts at Class 2. He loves it here at Nottingham and should be in the shake-up today.
These are the two I like best here and I suspect there'll not be much between them, but if pushed I'd take the 11/2 Punchbowl Flyer to just about beat the 7/1 Fantasy Master, who is pretty close to E/W territory for me., whilst I wouldn't be too surprised if the similarly 7/1 priced Spoof ran a big race here.
