Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/02/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez Gold offering is the excellent Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this free feature, we still have our usual selection of full free racecards and they will cover...

  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 4.35 Dundalk
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

My settings for the TS report have only generated one possible under the 14/30 day form tab...

...and I don't really fancy that one, so I'll revert back to the 'free' races and take a look at the 7.00 Kempton, a 10-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W Handicap
over a right handed 1m3f on Standard To Slow polytrack. It's worth £5,616 and here's how they line up...

The bookies seem to think it's a four-horse race between the top three on the Geegeez Speed ratings along with Crown Power, who actually has the same SR figure as third placed Daheer. My own initial thoughts were that I agree with that prediction, but that doesn't mean we're right or wrong!

Half of the field have won at least once in their last five starts : Daheer, City Tour, Bristol Hill, Elmejor, Berrahri and Almufeed. Elmejor won last time out, whilst Almufeed comes here on a hat-trick. Almufeed, however, is up two classes today and Elmejor, Crown Power & Hackbridge are all up from Class 5. Most of the field are aged 5 or 6, but 2nd-time handicapper Bristol Hill is only 4 and Berrahri is the ripe old age of 11! Bristol Hill has already scored over a similar trip to today and old-timer Berrahri is a former course winner, but City Tour, Just The Man and Crown Power have won at course and distance. We've a fair mix of in and out of form trainers/riders, where green is better than red.

Daheer is the one who shows up best on Instant Expert...

...despite not having raced here before, but I should say that all his form is at Wolverhampton, but he'll be dangerous here off just 3lbs over his last winning mark. Conversely, Berrahri looks very vulnerable, especially with just two placed finishes from 21 efforts at this grade. Almufeed also looks strong here, but the other two "fancied runners" haven't really ripped up any trees. Just The Man is now 12lbs lower than his last win, but that's because his form has been poor for the two years since his last win.

The draw stats here say that the lower the draw the better...

...and if we treat stall 4's results as being an anomaly, there's an almost linear decline in success from stall 1 to stall 8 with a slight improvement thereafter, presumably from horses attempting to "slingshot" the bend. Daheer is out in stall 7, but the other three of the original four are in stalls 1, 3 & 4 with Bristol Hill & Just The Man completing the lower half of the draw.

We've a good range of running styles here, based on their last four outings ranging from out and out front runner Berrahri to absolute hold up horse Just The Man, but to be honest half of this field are generally held up for a run...

And on this occasion, it's Almufeed of the original four who fares best, as yet again, there's an almost linear feel to the pace stats with leaders faring best and hold-up horses the worst...

...yet strangely the low-drawn leaders aren't the most successful here...

...and if I place our runners where I think they sit on that chart...

...then Elmejor is probably best suited, as is Berrahri, Angel On High and then probably Almufeed & Bristol Hill.

Summary

None of these tick all the boxes. I started with a notion/feeling that it was between Almufeed, Crown Power, Daheer & Elmejor in alphabetical order. Almufeed and Elmejor brought the best form to the table, whilst Daheer topped the Instant Expert scores followed by Almufeed.

Almufeed, Bristol Hill, Crown Power, Elmejor & Just The Man were the ones in the perceived "better" half of the draw. Almufeed and Bristol Hill were also in the "better" half of the pace profiles, along with Angel on High, Berrahri and Hackbridge and this then led to Elmejor, Berrahri, Angel On High, Almufeed & Bristol Hill scoring best on pace/draw.

All of which explains why Almufeed is the current 9/4 favourite. My concern is the big step up from Class 6 to Class 4 and an 11lb rise over two races and I fear he'll be vulnerable to the likes of Daheer who looks to be coming back into form and could offer some value at 11/2.

Of my other other pair, I've not much separating Elmejor & Crown Power and it really could be an either/or job from this pair of 5/1 shots.

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.