Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 02/03/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Geegeez Gold feature and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the rather excellent TS report, we also have these fully functionable free racecards...

  • 3.05 Wincanton
  • 3.30 Musselburgh
  • 4.15 Wincanton
  • 5.30 Kempton

And I'm going to take a look at trainer Jeremy Scott via the TS report, because of the following...

A yard clearly in form and with a good record at Wincanton over the last year, we need to at least have a quick look at his runners.

Champagne Court is a 9 yr old gelding, who'll be ridden by Lorcan Williams in the 2.30 Wincanton, a five-runner, Class 3, 2m4f, soft ground handicap chase, whilst Manofmanywords is a 10 yr old gelding to be ridden by Bryan Carver in the 4.50 Wincanton, a 13-runner, Class 4, 2m6f, soft ground handicap hurdle.

Jeremy's 7 from 20 handicap record over the last 30 days contains the following of relevance here...

  • 6/18 in NH races
  • 3/12 over hurdles
  • 4/9 on soft
  • 4/8 at Class 3
  • 3/6 over fences
  • 2/4 here at Wincanton
  • 0/4 at Class 4
  • 0/2 for Lorcan Williams
  • and 0/0 for Bryan Carver

...which would suggest the Class 3 chaser, Champagne Court has the best chance. Further analysis of Jeremy's fine handicap record here at Wincanton actually shows him as having 6 winners and 2 places from 13 here since the start of 2021 and these include...

  • 3/8 over hurdles
  • 3/6 at Class 3
  • 3/5 over fences
  • 2/5 at Class 4
  • and 2/2 on soft

...very reassuring figures indeed, so let's look at the horses themselves...

Champagne Court has seven consecutive top 3 finishes (3 x chs, 4 x hrd) showing high levels of consistency and has a 2 from 12 record across both spheres, making the frame in 13 of those 24 races. He's eased a pound here after back to back runner-up finishes off a mark of 130 and should relish conditions, as he has...

  • 3 wins, 4 places from 13 on soft ground
  • 3 wins, 5 places from 9 at Class 3
  • 1 win, 4 places from 6 at 2m4f
  • 1 win, 3 places from 4 under Lorcan Williams
  • made the frame in one of two Wincanton outings

Some of the above is documented in Instant Expert above, which also shows that he's now a massive 9lbs lower than his last winning mark, despite his recent good form. The pace tab tells us that he loves to be up with the pace...

...and that definitely seems to be the favoured tactic at this type of event...

All in all, plenty to like about Champagne Court and not much to dislike. If I can get a reasonable price, then I'll back him.

*

The second Jeremy Scott runner, Manofmanywords is sent to action later in the meeting...

For a 10yr old, he's very lightly raced after just five starts under Rules, all in the last 13 months and all over hurdles finishing 89358. The first two of those runs were both here at Wincanton last February over 1m7½f on heavy ground and the first marked his return to action some 691 days after winning back to back PTP contests in March 2019, suggesting he might end up as a stayer/staying chaser. He hasn't really fired over the smaller obstacles just yet but does jump well by all accounts and his best effort under Rules was a soft ground affair under today's jockey.

He has raced prominently in three of his last four starts...

...and the report from his debut says he chased the leaders, so I'd say he's a solid 3 on the pace score, which probably gives him his best chance of breaking his duck, if nothing else...

...whether he's actually good enough is another question or is he just being eased into things before tackling fences?

Summary

I do like Champagne Court, the trainer's stats favoured the chaser, his own record is excellent and 7/2 with bet365 looks a good price. Second favourite 3/1 Ubetya is the main danger for me, but I do like CC's chances here.

Manofmanywords not so much, sadly. I'm really not sure what the plan is for him and this looks way too competitive for him. Smoking Pigeon is a worthy 4/1 favourite here, but I'm not sure I'd want to put money on him, but with bookies paying four places (some pay five) the 11/1 shot Justified is interesting as an E/W play.

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