Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/04/22

Our free Gold feature each Wednesday is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, it can be filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss, whilst clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

Like virtually all of our reports, you are free to set your own parameters, depending on how many horses you want to see each day, but I have mine set fairly restrictively...

We also have a daily selection of fully functional free racecards and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 3.40 Leopardstown
  • 4.15 Leopardstown
  • 4.55 Kempton
  • 6.20 Leopardstown
  • 7.30 Kempton

I'm not really into/well up on Irish racing if truth be told and the two free Kempton races aren't setting my pulse racing either, but I've got a TS report qualifier that might be worth a second look...

...as trainer Julie Camacho sends the in-form 5 yr old gelding Proclaimer out to tackle the 8.00 Kempton : a 9-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed mile on standard to slow polytrack in a bid to land £5616...

Now from the racecard alone, we see that with 4 wins from his last five outings that Proclaimer brings the best set of recent results to the table, we know he ran in this grade last time out and that was three weeks ago and we know that he's a former course and distance winner. The card also tells us that Miss Camacho's horses aren't in the best form (14) right now and that today's jockey will be claiming 5lbs off Proclaimer's mark of 78, effectively making him bottom weight here.

You'll notice the number 3 under his name and clicking that opens up some report stats about the horse and I've also copied in Julie Camacho's course stats...

Julie's horses have indeed gone really well here over the last 12 months, winning 6 of 8, but she actually owes virtually all that success to Proclaimer who is 5 from 6, as per the Horse for Courses stat. Julie's horses are indeed 0 from 10 over the past fortnight, but that's a small sample size and the volatility of such data is exemplified by the fact although she's 0 from 10 (0%) over two weeks, she's also got a 15.4% strike rate (2 from 13) over the last three weeks, so I'm not unduly concerned about her form, especially with a course specialist like Proclaimer.

Proclaimer clearly likes it here and his overall career A/W handicap record stands at 7 wins from 12 (58.33% SR), which impressively includes...

  • 6/10 over a mile
  • 6/8 on std to slow
  • 5/6 here at Kempton
  • 5/6 over course and distance
  • 5/6 at prices of 4/1 and shorter (where I suspect we'll be here)
  • 5/6 on polytrack
  • 5/6 going right handed
  • 4/5 in fields of 8-11 runners
  • 3/4 after 16-30 days rest
  • 2/4 at Class 4
  • 2/2 under jockey Oisin McSweeney
  • and 2/2 this year

Instant Expert will hopefully back up some of these stats...

..and it also tells us that whilst Proclaimer's recent results are the best on show here, his Instant Expert numbers are also the nest, but that the likes of Lafan, Flyin' High and Uzincso might also have a say in proceedings.

Proclaimer comes here having won six of his last seven (5 wins here and 1 at Newcastle on Tapeta) with the only blot being a poor run at Newcastle when stepped back up to Class 4 off a mark of 73. In fairness, that was his sixth run in less than three months and he may have been a little overdone by then.

He was subsequently rested for 12 weeks before reattempting Class 4 off 73 to win here by a head, just doing enough. That got him another 3lbs rise to 76 for his next/last run, but it still didn't stop him running a career best effort to win here again by a nose in a tight finish (6th place was 1.75 lengths back).

The runner-up that day has since been beaten by just over a length off a mark of 86 at Class 2, so there's a chance that Proclaimer still has some scope for improvement. We don't really know, because he seems to find more each time and the inference always seems to be that he's just doing enough from the front, as he prefers to control the pace of the race, as documented in his pace stats below...

So, I'd expect him to be the one setting the fractions here with the three others highlighted on Instant Expert forming the initial chasing pack and you'd have to assume that if Proclaimer has been so successful here of late from the front that leading would be the best policy over a  mile here at Kempton.

As such, the following data probably won't cause too many shocks amongst our readership...

So, he's in prime form, he's a course and distance specialist, he's got the perfect pace profile, what could possibly be against him?
Perhaps the draw?
Well, he's drawn in 6 of 9 here and in isolation, that's a poor stall to run from, but looking at the wider picture...

...the mid (stalls 4-6) draw is perfect and with stalls 5 & 7 being the two highest scorers, you'd have to say that the numbers for stall 6 were anomalous at best. Personally I'm not that worried about such a draw. After all he won here from stall 6 of 9 two starts ago!

Summary

As Racing Insights meets old friend Stat of the Day, I do like Proclaimer as a runner and also his attitude, always finding more. Conditions look ideal for him here and although I expect fellow course specialist (112 over C&D) Lafan to be the biggest threat to his chances, I'm happy to take the early (3.40pm) 4/1 price from Hills. Lafan is the current 3/1 fav, but I'd rather be on Proclaimer and I'd not be shocked if they were the first two home.

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