Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/07/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

  • 2.20 Catterick
  • 4.40 Yarmouth
  • 6.35 Bath
  • 7.20 Kempton
  • 7.30 Fairyhouse

And I think I'm going to turn to the 5yr course handicap filter on the TS report and have a look at a pair of runners from Harry Eustace's yard...

Now I know that 12 runs over five years isn't much to go off, but these runners only date back to 9th June 2021, so they're just 13 months worth of data and that makes them more relevant. We'll start with Flaming Lord in the 5.10 Kempton, a 7-runner, Class 4, 3yo+ A/W handicap over a right handed 7f on standard to slow polytrack...

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What we know is that this 3 yr old gelding has been a runner-up in three of his last five outings, he's stepping up in class from a run 13 days ago and his jockey is in decent form, even if he hasn't been massively successful at this track overall. He's still a maiden after eight attempts, but has placed in 4 of his 7 Flat defeats, going down by just a neck in each of his last two. This is a polytrack debut, as his only previous A/W outing was at Wolverhampton last October, so Instant Expert will have nothing to show for A/W runs, but overall place form is...

We know that he's drawn in stall 2 of 7 here and that in recent outings, he has tended to track the leaders from a mid-division/prominent position without actually getting too involved up front early on...

So, how does his draw and race positioning fit in with past races here over this trip?

Well, there doesn't appear to be a massive draw bias, stall 4 has done uniquely better than the rest, but there can't be a reason for that and I suppose the only real issue has been being drawn higher than stall 6 where the win % drops to 9.1% (13/143) and just 24.5% making the frame. As for pace, the inference here is just don't dally, hold-up horses have performed really badly, but all other running styles have been successful and the ideal draw/pace make-up here is actually mid-drawn horses who lead or track the lead...

Flaming Lord tends to sit around the mid-div/prominent area and he's drawn low here. Goldilocks & Sunset And Vine are the two seemingly best suited on pace/draw.

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We then wait three hours before Reine du Bal tackles the 8.20 Kempton, an 11-runner, Class 6, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right handed mile. Again the polytrack is set to be standard to slow...

This lightly raced 4yr old filly makes just a fourth start here and her first in handicap company. She ran a good race two starts ago when second of six in a Class 5 Novice event over a mile at Lingfield, but wasn't entirely happy on her turf debut last time out. She probably hasn't been done too many favours by being allocated top weight on her handicap bow, but she's back at a mile, where her best run came previously and she's down in class. Having been placed just once from only three starts, we're not getting much from Instant Expert on this occasion...

She's drawn just about on the cusp of low to middle in stall 4 of 11 and although she led (and was subsequently headed and well beaten) last time out on turf, her two all-weather runs have seen he run from nearer the back of the field than the front, so again we can look at our pace/draw stats to see how that ties in past events here...

So, she 's managed to avoid the high draw, which seems worst off but her usual held up style on the A/W probably won't cut it here. She did, of course, lead on her turf debut last time out with today's jockey in the saddle, so there's every possibility she might go at it from the off. Best pace/draw combo is the low drawn leader...

...which might well be Sir Sedric from stall 2.

Summary

Harry Eustace has a great record in handicaps here at Kempton over the last year or so, but I fear that both of his runners on Wednesday will be nearer the back than the front and I don't fancy either to make the frame.

Flaming Lord has been in great nick on turf, but a watching brief is advised in the 5.10 race where he makes a polytrack debut in a contest where I fancy the 4/1 Brunel Charm to ge tthe better of the 10/3 Spangled Mac.

A similar story, sadly, for Reine du Bal who looks right up against it off a mark of 67 on handicap debut and there's some promise in a recent run, this probably isn't for her and I'd probably prefer the likes of the 9/2 Gigi's Beach or the 4/1 One Step Beyond.

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