Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 06/09/23

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]

In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...

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  • 1.40 Bath
  • 4.39 Hexham
  • 4.50 Lingfield
  • 5.04 Cork
  • 5.39 Cork
  • 7.18 Hexham

My own personal settings for the TS report...

...have generated the following quartet of runners for me to consider...

14-day form...

1-year course form...

5-year course form...

It's a pretty sire looking day of racing on Wednesday if truth be told. There are 36 UK races across six meetings and the 'best' on offer is half a dozen Class 4 encounters; one of which containing a runner from the TS report, so we're going to have a quick (and it will be quick) look at Nicky Richards' Kajaki and the other horses in the 5.45 Hexham, an 11-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ handicap hurdle over a left-handed 2m4f (near enough 2m5f after rail movements) on good ground...

No LTO winners here, but Copper Beach and Malangen made the frame. Belvedere Blast was pulled up, but had won his previous three outings, whilst only Dallas des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main have lost each of their last five.

Top weight Punxsutawney Phil steps up a class here, but both City Derby & Calum Gilhooley are down one level, whilst Belvedere blast & Dallas Des Pictons are aided by a double drop in class.

Four of the field ran 46 days ago and the remainder have all been seen in the last 11 to 33 days, so no fitness excuses here for a field in which only Onward Route, Cousu Main and Calum Gilhooley are yet to win at a similar trip, whilst three horses (Belvedere Blast, Fenna's Loss & Onward Route) have all won here previously; the former over 2m½f and the other pair are course and distance winners.

And now over to Instant Expert...

...where aside from a poor win record at Class 4, Belvedere Blast looks useful. Fenna's Loss, Calum Gilhooley and Kajaki look consistent enough and my main concerns are about Punxsutawney Phil & City Derby on good grounds, Belverdere Blast, Onward Route, Copper Beach, Cousu Main and Malangen at Class 4, Dallas Des Pictons, Onward Route and Cousu Main at the trip plus Copper Beach & City Derby for being considerably higher in the weights than their last winning marks.

Past races here at Hexham have suggested that the further forward a horse runs, the greater chance of making the frame and prominent/leading runners also stand the best chance(s) of winning...

...which based on the field's last few runs...



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...would steer you towards the top four on that list and then also possibly the next three for a chance of making the frame. To be honest this race doesn't particularly lend itself too well to finding a winner, although Belvedere Blast was in great form prior to being pulled up last time out. He scored well enough on Instant Expert and is likely to be up with the pace, but before I make a decision, I want to go back to Instant Expert and look at the place stats...

...and the standouts there would seem to be Copper Beach, Belvedere Blast and Onward Route.

Summary

In a tricky/unappealing race, I think I like Belvedere Blast most, but wouldn't want to put too much money down. Only Hills were open at 4.40pm and they were offering 5/1, which isn't generous but probably about right.

Copper Beach & Onward Route both looked good on place stats and the former is another 5/1 shot who might end up being the main challenger to the selection. As for Onward Route, he's a bit hit and miss, but there's definitely a placer in there if he's in the right shape/mood, but I think I'd want at least 12/1 before risking any of my cash and he's currently only 10's.

Onward Route was widely available at 12/1 on Wednesday morning, and had been 16/1 with PP/Betfair for a while.

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