Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/02/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is the free GOLD feature each Wednesday and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the TS report, we also offering the following full free racecards to all readers...

  • 1.37 Sedgefield
  • 2.45 Fairyhouse
  • 2.52 Fakenham
  • 3.52 Fakenham

None of the free races make much appeal to me, so I'm going to look at Venetia Williams's record in handicaps over the last year at Ludlow...

Four wins and two places from twelve is good going and she has three arrows on Wednesday.  The first of them looks like going off pretty short in a four-runner contest, so I'm going to focus on Chambard and Bellatrixsa today. The former goes in a 7-runner, Class 3, handicap chase over 2m4f on good to soft ground, whilst the latter runs over 2m5f in a mares handicap hurdle, also at Class 3 on good to soft ground.

The Williams horses are 16 from 65 (24.6% SR) in Ludlow handicaps since the start of 2017 and this includes of relevance here...

  • 8/41 (19.5%) at Class 3
  • 10/44 (22.7%) in chases
  • 6/21 (28.6%) over hurdles
  • 1/1 (100%) for jockey Harry Bannister
  • 11/40 (27.%) with horses rested for 45 days or less
  • 6/20 (30%) over trips of 2m4f to 2m5.5f
  • 6/21 (28.6%) on good to soft ground
  • and 4/14 (28.6%) were placed LTO

...all of which is positive news for our two spotlighted runners, so let's now have a look at Chambard...

...who might well be 10yrs old now, but returned to action on New Year's Day to land a heavy ground 2m3f chase at Exeter despite coming off a 265-day absence during which he had a wind op. That his first win over fences at the sixth attempt and he was a little unlucky not to follow it up next/last time out at Lingfield, despite an extra furlong and going up in class (+1) and weight (+9). He ran into the promising Zhuiguli (2/3 over fences at class 3) that day. but still beat eight others home.

He has been a runner-up here in the past, has finished 1226 on good to soft ground, has a win and a runner-up finish from two starts under today's jockey and is a three times runner-up from five efforts over today's trip. That's the meat to add to the bare figures shown on Instant Expert...

...which suggest that he's generally there or thereabouts, but has failed to turn places into wins. That said, if you're not in the frame, you can't win anyway! The main note of caution would be his mark at 122, some 12lbs higher than his win at the turn of the year, but he has run well in defeat off higher (runner-up off 125 three times and 126 twice), so 122 might not be beyond him if he can roll the years back here. His recent return to form has also come since switching back to a hold-up tactic, one that had served him well earlier in his career, but I'm not convinced it's the best approach here...

...but he did actually set the pace when second here over hurdles three years ago, so in-running punters might want to wait until they see how he sets out.

*

The 5yr old mare Bellatrixsa proved her staying credentials by making all to land a 2m½f A/W handicap at Newcastle in October 2020 prior to embarking on a hurdles career that has so far seen her finish 51122 with the '5' coming in a Listed race at Aintree on hurdles debut 14 months ago.

Her last run was just over three weeks ago when a runner-up at Chepstow at this grade over 2m3½f on soft ground, where she was a tad unfortunate to bump into the Skeltons and West To The Bridge, whose mark had dropped 11lbs since his last win and Bellatrixsa was 22 lengths clear of third place. That run came after a 205-day absence, so she's entitled to strip fitter here and a 1lb drop in her mark should also offer a little help. In her five hurdles contests to date, she's 1/1 here at Ludlow (2m5½f), has finished 112 on good to soft, 122 at 2m3½f to 2m5½f and she has won both right handed runs with some of this data verified via Instant Expert...

...which is a very strong looking string of data. When she won here three starts ago, last May, the race report said...'tracked leader, not fluent 5th, led before not fluent 3 out, headed narrowly and bumped after 2 out, led again last, stayed on flat...' and this is consistent with the way she has generally run over hurdles...

...but somewhat surprisingly, that's not considered the best approach here at Ludlow...

...although an IV of 0.99 doesn't suggest an impossible task from a prominent position and a better than average chance of making the frame here.

Summary

Two Venetia Williams runners with excellent chances here and I'll be relatively surprised if both don't make the frame. I'd suggest that Belletrixsa is a more likely winner than Chambard, who looks like he's got a couple of tricky customers to beat in the shape of Gortroe Joe and Quoi de Neuf, but if he can master his fellow 10yr old Gortroe Joe, then the race could well be his.

As for Belletrixsa, she's just about my pick of her race, but I fear/suspect that Trapista might make life tough.

Chambard is currently priced at 9/2, which is probably about right and the same as Quoi de Neuf with Gortroe Joe the 11/4 fav, so the market seems to haver the same thoughts as me, whilst B is the joint 5/2 fav with Trapista and again I think that's about right. Small stakes for a bit of interest from me with a very small punt at the double around the 17/1 mark.

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