Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 09/03/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature and is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, you can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to making the TS report free to all every Wednesday, we're also delighted to share fully functional access to the following racecards...

  • 4.35 Catterick
  • 6.00 Kempton
  • 7.00 Kempton
  • 8.00 Kempton

None of those four really float my boat, but my settings for the  ...

...have generated two horses for me to look at...

We start with The Sumba Island in the 3.25 Catterick, a 6-runner, soft ground, Class 5, 5yo+ Novices Handicap Chase consisting of 16 fences over a left-handed 2m3f and here's how the horse looks on the card...

So we see that Laura Morgan not only has a good record over the past month, particularly in handicaps, but she also has done well here at Catterick. In respect of today's race, her 30-day record of 8 wins and 3 further places from 21 handicappers includes...

  • 8 wins, 3 places from 18 chasers
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 15 at Class 5
  • 7 wins from 13 on soft ground
  • 6 wins, 3 places from 13 in Class 5 chases
  • 7 wins from 12 in soft ground chases
  • and 5 wins from 8 in soft ground, Class 5 chases, from which today's jockey David Noonan is 1 from 1.

Laura also has the green C5 icon denoting a decent return at the track and closer inspection shows 4 winners and 6 further placers from 16 handicappers here since the start of 2018, including...

  • 2 wins, 4 places from 8 at Class 5
  • 2 wins, 2 places from 6 chasers
  • 2 wins, 1 place from 5 on soft
  • 1 win, 1 place from 3 in Class 5 chases
  • and 1 win, 1 place from 2 soft ground Class 5 contests

All of which gives the horse some hope here, but what of this 5 yr old mare? Well, she's lightly raced (as most 5yo female chasers tend to be!) and makes a chasing bow on her second handicap start in what will be just her sixth run to date. She was a well beaten (23L) 5th of 7 in a Class 5 Fakenham bumper on debut almost four months ago, before finishing 4th of 5 (12L), 10th of 12 (28L) and 6th of 8 (49L) in three Class 3 hurdles contests, giving her an opening handicap mark of 102 off which she duly finished last of seven, beaten by 16 lengths over a 3m trip at Fakenham a month ago.

The last three of her runs have been on soft ground, so she's used to it even if she hasn't gone too well on it. She ran at today's trip on hurdles debut, but has been tried at 1m7½f, 2m, 2m3½f, 2m5f and 3m without success. She has however been dropped 8lbs down to a mark of 94, which should help and the yard has a great recent record in handicap chases. I'll show you the place side of Instant Expert, not that she has achieved anything, but just so you can see whether she has tackled similar races before...

So, a couple of unsuccessful tries at Class 3 and similar trips, plus three failures on soft ground don't exactly inspire confidence in a horse who has been held up in three of her four starts over hurdles...

...a tactic that if repeated here is highly unlikely to bring much joy on a track that heavily favours the front runners...

*

Then we head to Fontwell, where Venetia Williams tends to hold centre stage in handicap contests and her sole runner of the day heads for the 3.50 Fontwell, a race she won last year. Sadly, we've only got four runners for this Class 4, 5yo+ Mares Novices Handicap Chase over 3m2½f taking in 19 fences around the Figure of 8 on good to soft ground and I'd expect featured horse, Eleanor Bob to go off quite short...

And we know that the Williams' yard has 7 winners and 2 placers from 19 handicap runners her at Fontwell over the last five years, because it's on today' featured report, but closer inspection of the data shows that since the start of 2020, her Fontwell handicap chasers have 7 wins and a place from just eleven starts and these include of relevance here...

  • 6 wins and a place from 10 at Class 4
  • 4 wins from 5 for jockey Charlie Deutsch
  • and 3 wins from 4 at 3m2f/3m2½f

The yard seem to be in perpetual good form and in this 7 yr old mare, they've got one at the top of her game, coming here seeking a hat-trick after back to back Class 4, soft ground, 3m wins at Chepstow and Huntingdon in the last seven weeks or so. That has, of course raised her mark from 107 to today's 120 and whilst that would require a career best effort, she's definitely the form horse in the contest and surely a better bet than fellow top weight and fellow Midnight Legend offspring Legends Ryde who comes off the back of defeats by 27 and 20 lengths, albeit at a higher level. And despite a 6lb rise for her most recent win 27 days ago, the rather self-explanatory Instant Expert says she's tailor-made for this contest...

Throughout her career, Eleanor Bob has liked to be up with the pace and has a pace score of 4 for each of her last two runs/wins, suggesting she'll take it on here again...

...and as the sole front/prominent runner in the field, this looks to be a good plan based on past races here at Fontwell...

Summary

I really don't fancy the chances of The Sumba Island at Catterick, despite the form of the yard over the past month, their success at Catterick over the years and even their excellent return from handicap chasers over the past couple of years. Maybe we'll see another side to this 5 yr old mare over fences, but I wouldn't be rushing to back her just yet and she's certainly no 13/2 third fav in my eyes. The bookies have installed Da Vinci hand as the 5/4 fav and whilst that's a bit skinny, he should be winning this. 5/2 second fav Spot On Soph is probably second best but she's an out and out hold up horse and they struggle here. Something like the 10/1 Whos The Guvnor might be of interest, though from an E/W perspective.

As for Eleanor Bob, I expect her to win at Fontwell and it's just a case of at what price, by how far and who fills the frame for the forecast. She's currently 11/8, I expected 11/10 or possibly shorter. I think she'll be well clear if putting it on early and I think the bookies have the order correct with the 5/2 Miss Jeanne Moon the next best. That's my 1-2 for this race and whilst I'm not normally a fan of backing horses at 11/8, there could actually still be some value there.

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