Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 11/05/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is not only Wednesday's free GOLD feature, but is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the TS report, we also have, as always, a selection of fully functional free racecards...

  • 1.35 Gowran Park
  • 1.40 Worcester
  • 3.35 York
  • 4.25 Gowran Park
  • 8.10 Perth
  • 8.30 Bath

My settings for the TS report...

have generated the following qualifiers...

...and although it's nowhere near the best race on offer, I'm going to look at that 8.30 Bath contest, as it's a 'free' race that has a TS report qualifier in it. It's a 13-runner, Class 6, 3yo Flat Handicap over a left handed mile on firm ground and here are the runners and riders...

My initial reaction on seeing the field was that we're probably focusing on the top third or half of the card, which is good for our TS report qualifier, Adatorio, who carries top weight. He probably brings the best recent form to the table, as none of these have won recently, Girl In The Picture has also put a couple of decent efforts together too, finishing as a runner-up in two of her last three starts. Aurelia Gold has made the frame a couple of times too, but it's slim pickings elsewhere.

Two runners are on handicap debut (Mr Freedom & Greg The Great) and two are having a second crack (Life's A Beach & Belisa De Vega). Our two handicap debutants are our only class movers as Greg The Great drops in from Class 5, whilst Mr Freedom ran at Class 4 LTO, but that was 251 days ago and only Life's A beach (273 days) has been off the track for longer with Greg The Great also coming back from a layoff (168 days). The rest have all raced in the past nine weeks.

We know from the TS report that Clive Cox (Adatorio) has a good record here, but so do Mick Channon (Mr Freedom), Brian Meehan (Bella Caelia) and Michael Attwater (Bear To Dream), although the latter has struggled for winners of late.

Only Bella Caelia (1 from 7) has actually won a race and the field has a combined record of 14 places from 92 starts (15.2%) and seven of the field have had a total of 34 races without placing. Bella Caelia win came in a 7f soft ground (1m, firm today!) handicap last October, but she has been 11th of 12 and last of 13 in two runs since and in the absence of any other wins, we'll move straight to the place stats on Instant Expert and hope for the best. Fingers crossed...

So, none of the field have raced on firm ground, but the track is a bit softer in places, so I've included Good to Firm going and my initial thoughts about where we should concentrate are clearly amplified here. Three of the top four have at least made the frame under similar conditions and I'd be inclined to say they'll be my three against the field. The rest of the field look so bad that I'm not convince the draw or racing styles will help any of them past those three, but let's quickly check anyway.

We appear to want a mid to high draw here...

and with my currently preferred three berthed in 7, 10 & 12, that's good news, but what about the pace of the race? Well, anything bar a hold-up position would work here...

It seems that the further forward you race of the three non hold-up styles the better, but for the places, it's the opposite way around. There's not actually a great deal of pace in this contest...

...but if you rearrange that chart into pace score order, my three are in the first four ranked...

Summary

I've quickly whizzed through this race on purpose. It was worth looking at,, because we had an "in" via the free race and the report qualifier, but we don't dwell on poor races. That said the three I highlighted early on are definitely the three to beat for me, it's just a case of what order they finish in.

ADATORIO
Placed in each of his last two outings and his 3rd of 13 over C&D last time out was his best run to date. He goes off the same mark here, but is effectively 3lbs better off due to William Cox's claim and having been beaten by 3,75 lengths last time could be much closer this time around.

GIRL IN THE PICTURE
Was a runner-up beaten by a neck at Windsor a month ago and was a runner-up again here over 1m2f last week, going down by three parts of a length. Down in trip off the same and now ridden by Hollie Doyle, this might well be her day to get off the mark.

AURELIA GOLD
On the face of it, an established Class 6 runner with 5 places from 7, but all her form is on the A/W and she's only raced twice on turf before finishing last of 6 and 14th of 18 back in July 2021 and she's the weakest of my three.

If Aurelia Gold is my third pick, its down to Adatorio from the TS report and Girl In The Picture and I've a marginal preference for the latter.

My 1-2-3 are priced at 10/3 fav, 4/1 2nd fav and 7/1 4th fav, so we're not reinventing the wheel here, but we might have a winner on our hands.

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