Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 12/01/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report does exactly what it says on the tin, but is in fact, four reports in one, contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

This report is free to all GOLD subscribers every day of the week, but we make it open to everyone every Wednesday alongside a selection of full free racecards which, for Wednesday, will cover...

  • 2.20 Leicester
  • 4.00 Kempton
  • 6.30 Kempton

A combination of not much handicap racing and these fairly stringent report settings...

...means I have no qualifiers to display on my own Trainer Statistics (TS) report, so I'll revert to the free list for today's piece. The last of the trio is the best standard (on paper, anyway) and as such, we'll tackle the 6.30 Kempton, a 6-runner (was 7!), Class 3, 4yo+ Fillies Handicap over a right handed 7f on Standard To Slow polytrack and here are the runners contesting the £10,308 pot...

Cry Havoc ran well enough two starts ago when nearer (2L) than 4th of 7 would suggest at Lingfield at this grade at the start of December, but she ran poorly at Newcastle last time out. That said, she has 3 wins and 2 places from 9 on poly and has won here in the past. She's up in class here, but interestingly off 2lbs lower and 3lbs below her Class 2 win seven starts ago. Could definitely be in the shake-up.

Epsom Faithfull also struggled last time out, beaten by 11 lengths here over course and distance at a lower grade, trailing home some 11 lengths adrift. She hasn't been seen for 12 weeks and runs off the same mark here but up in class. On a more positive note, her 5lb claimer is riding well at present and has clocked up some wins for this yard...

Famille Rose won here over course and distance at Class 5 on her A/W debut back in early November 2020, but didn't race again for 13 months until reappearing here five weeks ago to finish 3rd or 9 over a mile, again at Class 5. Her mark is unaltered from that run and she's entitled to improve for having had the pipe-opener, but she is up two classes here and although her yard have fared well here of late, especially with today's jockey, she's not a shoo-in.

Separate has been 7th of 9 and then last of 7 in her two most recent outings (her only A/W runs) and has a career record of just 2 wins from 24 and has lost her last 17 races since winning in September 2019, failing to make the frame in the last 15. Not for me here.

Piselli Molli (soft/mushy peas in Italian?) has made the frame just once in five A/W starts and that was back in September 2020. She tackles Class 3 racving for the first time today, despite a fairly resounding (10L) defeat as 7th of 12 at Southwell last time out. She did end the last Flat season 1341 and she is efectively some 8lbs better off than LTO, but she's still not one I'd trust.

Sealed Offer is another bang out of form, winless since landing a Class 5 novice race at Lingfield in mid-December 2020. In the last 13 months since that win, she is 0/9 in handicaps, placing just the once, although she was also 3rd of 6 over course and distance off 5lbs higher back in September but hasn't kicked on since and now steps up two classes.

This doesn't look as good a race as I thought it would be when I started and although Famille Rose is by means a cert, you can now see why she'll be a short-priced fav here. Of the rest, top-weight Cry Havoc is interesting plus possibly Epsom Faithfull and this is backed up by the A/W stats contained within Instant Expert...

Epsom Faithfull's weight is the obvious one to note here and if she's race ready after 12 weeks off, she could well be nicely weighted here. Famille Rose ticks most boxes, but off a small number of runs, but both of them are making a Class 3 debut, where Cry Havoc does at least have some (albeit losing) experience.

We've a right handed turn here and the draw stats suggest that the fav Famille Rose (now effectively in #5) will have the best draw

...with widest of all, Sealed offer done no favours at all. Of my trio, Cry Havoc would be favoured over Epsom Faithfull from those numbers. I'd now normally look at the pace and how it interacts with the draw etc, but here we have a problem. The likely pacemaker is now a non-runner and recent outings suggest that none of the six will be keen to take it on...

...and I'm expecting a fairly slow falsely run contest here and that's only going to play into the hands of the better horses here. Some of these do have a couple of prominent runs, but there's no out and out leader and if they go no pace, the faster finishers like Cry Havoc and Famille Rose will love it.

Summary

This has to be Famille Rose's race to win/lose, but I'm not getting involved at odds as low as 1/2. Cry Havoc is also wildly priced in my opinion right out at 15/2 and she's every chance of outrunning those odds, so I'll take a small E/W punt there.

 

 

 

Other Recent Posts by This Author:

Your first 30 days for just £1
0 replies

Leave a Reply

Want to join the discussion?
Feel free to contribute!

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

This site uses Akismet to reduce spam. Learn how your comment data is processed.