Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 15/06/2022

Our free Geegeez GOLD feature on Wednesdays is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, a report unsurprisingly full of trainer stats! ;-). It is, in fact, four reports in one and it contains information on a trainer’s recent (14/30 day) form, and their longer term (1/5 yrs) course form. Users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss and clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, whilst clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS Report, we also have the following racecards open to ALL readers...

  • 3.05 Ascot
  • 5.15 Hamilton
  • 7.40 Ripon
  • 8.10 Ripon
  • 8.30 Wexford

My personal settings (you get to set your own!) for the TS report have only generated qualifiers on 30-day form...

...and with the the first of those races having 30 runners and the second a mere 20 runners, I'm going to turn my attention North to an open-looking contest, where the 8.10 Ripon is an 8-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m4f on good ground...

FORM : No LTO winners, Can Can Girl won 2 starts ago and is 2 from 4, Carrigillihy also won 2 starts ago and was placed LTO, whilst Where's Jeff is the only other LTO placer.

CLASS : Where's Jeff steps up a level here, the rest raced at Class 4 LTO.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Only Fairmac and Sudona are without a win at this trip, whilst both True Courage and Carrigillihy are former course and distance winners.

DAYS OFF : No rustiness here, as all have raced in the past nine weeks, with only Can Can Girl (48 days) off for more than three weeks. None are thrown back in either as Fairmac is the most recent returner at 13 days and he heads the field comprising of...

FAIRMAC
Reasonable enough on his day, but he tends not to have enough 'days', winning just 3 of 26 so far, although he's made the frame 10 times. Has had some heavy defeats already this term and was only 7th of 8 at Redcar last time out. Most of his racing has been at 1m2f/1m2½f, so he's up in trip and has discarded the blinkers.

TRUE COURAGE
Won over course and distance at this meeting last, albeit at Class 6 for the first of a hat-trick of wins over a 3-week period. he progressed so well that he was second in a Class 2 handicap at Ascot in September but has gone backwards since and was beaten by 28 lengths as last of five over course and distance last time out.

CROESO CYMRAEG
Hasn't won since 1st June last year, when scoring over 1m2f at Leicester by just a head. That was off a mark of 78 and now eight defeats later, he is finally rated a pound lower than that win. 1m4f should suit him better as he's generally a slow starter and he could be a surprise here.

SUDONA
Won at Beverley by a head (C5, 1m2f, soft) nine months ago and has only raced twice since. She ws well beaten at Pontefract a month after that win and then took 222 days off. She re-appeared at Beverley, but looked in need of a run when 5 lengths off the pace as 5th of 7 on quick ground. The extra 2f might help here, but a mark of 75 would mean a career best if she won.

CAN CAN GIRL
Strangely disappointing LTO when last home of six at Musselburgh, beaten by over 32 lengths as she's usually quite consistent. Her form prior to that run read 1223121 going back to November of last year. Something clearly was amiss that day and it's a case of whether it has been sorted or not.

CARRIGILLIHY
Won over C&D here almost a year ago, but that was on softer ground at a lower class and off a mark a pound lower than today. That said, he did win a Class 5 on good to firm ground at Pontefract two starts ago, but his inconsistency re-emerged as he could only finish 3rd of 5 LTO. Hit and miss and you take your chance which one you'll get when backing this runner.

PEARL WARRIOR
Won over this trip at Fairyhouse exactly two years ago, but has been defeated in all 18 starts (10 flat, 6 hurdle and 2 A/W) since and in three races since his winter spell over hurdles, he has been last of 8, 6th of 9 and 4th of 5. Not for me here.

WHERE'S JEFF
Was unlucky at Hamilton last time out when beaten by less than teo lengths despite being blocked off twice in the run-in. he likes to start well, but struggles to finish strongly, yet now steps up in class and trip for only his second crack at 1m4f in the last 14 months. But if he runs like LTO and gets a better passage, he could well figure again off the same mark.

There's a couple here that I'd already be reluctant to back, but none have really stood out so far as a potential winner. Hopefully Instant Expert will start to weed out the chaff...

And indeed it does start to cast doubts on some, even if it isn't highlighting a standout pick. Sudona has failed often enough at going/class/distance to put me off and Where's Jeff's best form has come over considerably shorter distances than this.

Next we'll look at draw & pace separately and together. Regular readers of my waffle will now that I place less emphasis on draw, the longer the race is. Surely if you're drawn 'badly", you've 1m4f here to undo the draw and you're only 8 horses wide at the very worst. Nevertheless, past similar events...

...would appear to back up my theory to a degree, so pace must play a bigger part in proceedings and I've got it in my head that you need to be up with the pace here at Ripon, but let's get the facts rather than my 'memories'...

and yes, the advice is to lead or get as close to the lead as you can, the figures for horses further down the field are lamentable.

But who's going to lead? Well, we can show you how these horses have raced in their last four outings and make an informed prediction...

Summary

Carrigillihy and Pearl Warrior are the likely pacesetters with Can Can Girl and Where's Jeff the chasers and I think that these four are the ones that I'd want to be with, except Pearl Warrior , of course, who I discarded at the first opportunity.

Carrigillihy is inconsistent, but if he's up for it, he could well win, but I can't back horses that need to be on it. Can Can Girl is usually a model of consistency and I think I'm happy to over look her last run, whilst Where's Jeff was unlucky LTO and a similar run wins this.

We go back to Carrigillihy, I can't back him to win, but I think he could place, but 9/2 isn't long enough for that. There's not much between Can Can Girl and Where's Jeff, but I feel that the former's consistency and more advanced running style just tips the balance. It promises to be tight affair, but I'm taking the 8/1 Can Can Girl (worth an E/W bet at worst) to beat the 7/2 Where's Jeff here.

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