Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/02/22

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form : for each of 14 day, 30 day, course one-year, and course five-year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to a sneak peek at a GOLD feature each day, we also offer a selection of full free racecards to non-GOLD subscribers and for Wednesday, they are for...

  • 2.05 Wetherby
  • 3.30 Dundalk
  • 4.00 Dundalk
  • 4.22 Wetherby

And whilst my fairly strict settings for the TS Report...

...have actually generated some qualifiers, the first of our free races looks too good (from first glance) to not cover, so we're off to West Yorkshire for the 2.05 Wetherby, an 8-runner (hope it stays that way for E/W bettors), Class 2, 4yo+ handicap hurdle taking in eleven flights over a left-handed 2m4f (after a +84yd rail adjustment) on soft ground...

Flash the Steel is now 10yrs of age and hasn't raced since late November 2020, but was a Class 2, 2m4½f winner on that occasion and now makes a re-appearance off a mark 1lb lower than that win. You'd probably want to see how he goes first time up, but he has 2 wins and 2 places from 6 on soft ground and the yard are 22 from 61 (36.1% SR) over hurdles here since the start of 2019, but jockey bookings suggest stablemate Shannon Bridge is first string.

Arrivederci won here over course and distance at the end of October 2020 off 5lbs lower than today's mark, but hasn't won any of just five outings since. He did make the frame in back to back races at Ascot including a decent run as runner-up in a grade 3 in January 2021. Looked like needing the run at Taunton recently after 324 days off track, but could go well here after that effort.

Up For Parol won back to back 2m contests (here and at Ffos Las) last spring before taking six months off. He returned to action at Chepstow in October to finish 3rd of 7 in a Grade 2. Since then he has won on handicap debut over 2m3f on soft ground at Haydock and ran well in the Lanzarote (Listed) at Kempton LTO when 6th of 19 over 2m5½f on soft ground. The drop in class and trip should help here.

Her Indoors was a winner on the Flat over 1m3½f, so would have decent ground speed and started hurdling life well, finishing 22101 in her first five, culminating in a Grade 3 success over 2m1f at Cheltenham last April. She hasn't quite hit those heights this season, though, finishing fifth on both occasions and wouldn't be an obvious pick here.

Shannon Bridge will be ridden by Harry Skelton suggesting he's the yard's first stringer, but he comes here in no real form at all. He ended last season with back to back wins here over 2m5f (heavy) and then at Ascot (2m3½f, soft) off a mark 4lbs higher than today. This season, though has seen him pull up, 7th of 9, last of 14, last of 9 and then 3rd of 8 LTO. That latest effort was back her at Wetherby over a soft-ground 2m4½f and although it's a slight drop in trip and he's down another 2lbs, he is back up in class and this looks a tough ask on form.

No Word Of A Lie ran 422 in bumpers in early 2021 and was a runner-up on hurdles debut over 2m4f on soft ground at Uttoxeter back in October despite being off the track for seven months. He got off the mark in a Class 4 Novice event at Sedgefield (2m4f, soft) two starts ago and was only beaten by a length and three quarters up in class last time out on heavy ground. He's up a class again here and up 2lbs, but drops in trip, the ground will be a little easier and he looks a reliable type.

Homme Public was second and then first in his opening hurdles contests and was a decent third at Haydock at the start of December, but was well beaten at the same venue last time out and now up in class, he's needing to improve greatly to get involved here.

Findthetime completes the line-up and receives weight all round as he seeks a hat-trick. Has made the frame in all four starts to date and after landing a novice hurdle at Sedgefield over 2m1f in November, he then stepped up in trip to win on handicap debut at Catterick just after Christmas. Form alone makes him of interest, but he is up 5lbs and two classes and this represents his toughest task to date.

All eight runners have won at least once on soft ground, three of the four to have raced here have won on this track and all bar two of the field have a distance win under their belt. Weight variations from their last win range from +5lbs down to -5lbs and all of this is verified via Instant Expert...

...where Up For Parol is probably the eye-catcher, although most of the field have some positives about them. The bottom three on the card lack experience at Class/Course, whilst Shannon Bridge's 3/10 record over this trip is supplemented by a further 3 places.

At this point, I'd have to say that Up For Parol is ticking more boxes than the others, but 2m4f on soft ground isn't always easy at Wetherby and based on the last twenty contests under similar conditions...

..those setting the pace have fared much better (8/26 = 30.8%) as opposed to those further back (12/133 = 9%) in the field, so pace could well be the decisive factor here. This makes our pace logging feature vital, as we note the running style of every horse in every UK race and here's how this field have approached their last four contests...

...which would suggest the likes of Her Indoors and Flash The Steel are likely to struggle and that the top three of that pace chart would be best suited.

Summary

Up For Parol is the 5/2 favourite here and I can see why he's the fav, based on the above. I'm not entirely sure about the price, I would have been hoping for a bit more juice, but he is what he is.  I do believe that if any of them beat him, they'll be the winner. The main challenges are likely to come from Findthetime if he's not held up and Arrivederci, but if you wanted an E/W punt, I'd not deter you from an 8/1 shot at No Word of a Lie, who I thought might be a bit shorter.

 

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2 replies
  1. 10 Things You Didn't Know about Geegeez Racecards
  2. LORDHAY
    LORDHAY says:

    I have gold status, but where did you get this screen from showing the course statistics over the pace, is this a combined screenshot thanks

    Reply

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