Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 16/03/22

The free feature today is the Trainer Statistics (TS) report which is in fact, four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

My own personal settings (you get to choose your own!) for the TS report...

...have generated just one runner of interest...

...but thankfully we also have the following 'free races of the day' to consider...

  • 1.15 Huntingdon
  • 2.10 Cheltenham
  • 5.14 Newcastle
  • 8.00 Kempton

...and I'll give a tricky-looking Cheltenham race a swerve and head to Sunbury-on-Thames for the list of those four races, the 8.00 Kempton, an 8-runner, Class 3, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a right-handed two miles on standard to slow polytrack...

The Geegeez SR figures and the bookies seem to think this is a two-horse race between Resumption and joint bottom weight Chase The Dollar. Top weight Author's Dream is our only LTO winner and is one of two Course & Distance winners along with High Wells, who is the only horse here without a run in the last two two months or so. He actually steps up a class on his yard debut for  new handlers, whilst fancied Chase The Dollar steps up two levels. Conversely, Military Two Step and Justus both raced at Class 2 last time around.

Just In Time and Red Royalist are the only two without a win in their last six outings, but the former has made the frame on both runs this year and the latter has seven consecutive top three finishes on level ground. The former has also won here at Kempton in the past, albeit over 1m4f four and a half years ago, whilst Military Two Step won over this 2m trip at Chester last July. Resumption is the pick on trainer/jockey positives with both being in good form with good previous course records, but my overviews start at the top with...

AUTHOR'S DREAM
Very handy record of 7 wins from 20 on the A/W (inc 4/13 polytrack, 4/12 @ 2m, 3/5 std to slow, 2/2 jockey), beat the re-opposing Just In Time by a neck at Southwell five weeks ago and is up 2lbs for the win and a 1lb worse off with the runner-up, which could make the difference.

MILITARY TWO STEP
Just the one A/W run to date, when second of four beaten by a length at Wolverhampton on Valentines Day, after a six month break, although the winner was pretty comfortable. Down in class off the same mark, should come on for the run, but does appear to blow hot and cold based on his Flat form.

JUST IN TIME
Has won here a long time ago and is probably better on the Flat, but did only go down by a neck LTO and now a pound better off than Author's Dream, so the two could be closely linked again. A mark of 83 is still workable based on his last winning mark of 94, but that was 15 starts and 42 months ago, it's almost as though he's forgotten how to win.

RESUMPTION
Two from eight so far, all on the A/w, but both wins came in January on Newcastle's tapeta over 1m4½f, where he's two from three and hasn't raced beyond that distance yet and was poor there over that trip last time out, coming home fifth of six, 6.5 lengths adrift. He has been eased a pound and an in-form (see below) 5lb claimer installed, but I'm not sure about him getting the trip, especially away from Tapeta.

HIGH WELLS
1 from 1 here at Kempton courtesy of a C&D win in September 2020, but has only raced twice since, both in that same month. He's now making a comeback after more than 76 weeks off and I think he'll need the run, even though his jockey has some great results at this track.

JUSTUS
Finished 4221 in four starts in France, culminating in a success over 1m7f on soft ground at Dieppe before changing hands and coming to the UK, where he has finished fifth on both outings, showing very little in the process. last of five here over C&D last time out, albeit at Class 2, but even a drop in class makes him hard to fancy, even if yard & rider work well together here...

RED ROYALIST
Finished outside the first three home in just three of his twenty-one runs from Class 4, 6f debut in Sept '16 to a Class 4 2m½f run at York four years later, but was then absent for fifteen months. Has raced twice over hurdles on his comeback but has been beaten by 10.5 and 13 lengths and now reverts to level ground for the first time in over 18 months. Another to watch from a distance, I think.

CHASE THE DOLLAR
A 4yr old son of Frankel who has finished 2412 since coming back from a 4 month break from the end of last August to just before New Year. All his best form has been at around the 1m4f mark, but he has tried two miles already, going down by almost six lengths at Wolverhampton in January, but did win over 1m6f at Southwell a month ago, so the step up in trip isn't a massive leap of faith and these numbers are promising...

For a lowdown on how their past records stand up against each other, we have our unique Instant Expert report...

...which is dominated by High Wells sole visit to this track, but Author's Dream is the one doing most for me here. He's the one with no red blocks, despite having much more A/W experience than his rivals, especially over these staying trips where he is 6 from 18 versus the field's 1 from 10. He's drawn out in stall 7 of 8 and whilst I'm not big into analysing the draw in races of this length, here's the data for those of you who deem it important...

This would suggest that Author's Dream is at the wrong end of the stalls with the lowest drawn third of the field faring best historically, although the higher drawn runners make the frame more often. Chase The Dollar has stall 1, so his team will enjoy reading the draw stats. However, I'm not reading too much into that, because in the grand scheme of things the width of an 8-runner set of stalls shouldn't make a massive difference when you've two miles to run. Surely it's all about how you approach the race tactically and in the similar past 46 races above...

..those waited with in mid-division have fared best of all. Judging race positioning is a skill not all jockeys master and the slightest margin can cost. Here at Kempton, you want to sit off the pace, but not too far off and if you can't get that ideal place in the order, you're better off being further forward than further back, which would appear to make life difficult for Just In Time and possibly Red Royalist...

Summary

From looking at the card and doing the overviews, I didn't like High Wells, Justus or Red Royalist. Just In Time was closely linked with Author's Dream but doesn't seem to want to win and the pace of the race won't suit him, so he's off my list too, taking us down to four.

So, having quickly halved the field down to Author's Dream, Chase The Dollar, Military Two Step and Resumption, the last one to be jettisoned would be Military Two Step on polytrack debut, due to his previous inconsistencies. Of the final three, I think I like Author's Dream marginally more than Chase The Dollar. He ticks more boxes on Instant Expert, he'll be well up with the pace and has won three of his last five.

A price of 11/2 from Hills looks quite tasty, so it's Author's Dream to beat Chase The Dollar & Resumption, about whom I have trip reservations.

 

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