Racing Insights, Wednesday 17/04/24
Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.
HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!
[ Please refer to our User Guide for further information ]
In addition to the free daily feature, we always open up a number of racecards to non-Gold subscribers and for Wednesday, they are...
- 2.05 Cheltenham
- 2.52 Beverley
- 3.35 Newmarket
- 5.00 Cheltenham
14-day form...
30-day form...
and course 5-year form...
To be honest, I'm not particularly taken with any of the seven races above, mainly to a lack of experienced horses, so I've decided to focus on what looks a fairly open race with E/W possibilities at Jumps HQ. The race in question is the 2.40 Cheltenham, a 12-runner, 5yo+, Grade 2 handicap chase over a left-handed 2m4½f (16 fences) on good/good to soft ground...
Our sole LTO winner is Scarface and he comes here seeking a hat-trick having won three of his last four. Elsewhere only Do Your Job and Our Jet made the frame, both finishing third in 8-runner contests. Most of the field have won at least one of their last six outings, but Il Ridoto and In Excelsis Deo have both lost seven on the bounce.
Seven of the twelve runners were in Class 1 action last out, but in-form Scarface steps up from Class 2, as does LTO placer Do Your Job, whilst Presentandcounting, Idalko Bihoue and Our Jet all move from Class 3, which makes life tough here, especially if you've been off the track for 200 days like Presentandcounting has!
He's not the only one who might be in need of a run, as Idalko Bihoue, Final Orders and Hang In There also return from breaks of 113, 151 and 171 days respectively. The rest of the field have raced at least once in 2024, although Our Jet hasn't been seen for twelve weeks and Sail Away has had a two-month rest. The other half of the field have all been in action in the last five weeks.
Sail Away and In Excelsis Deo are the only runners yet to win over this kind of trip and although Hang In There (2m½f hurdle) and Idalko Bihoue (2m4f chase) are both former Cheltenham winners, only Il Ridoto and Torn and Frayed have scored over course and distance...
Instant Expert's overview of the field's chasing form over the last two years...
...suggests that Il Ridoto has failed to take the several chances offered to him at this class/track/trip, whilst Do Your Job would probably want more rain to fall. That said he's also 0/5 at Class 1, as is Torn And Frayed. Hang In There is interesting on going/trip, as is Scarface (a former Class 1 winner). The bookies will all pay at least four places on this race, so we should look at the place stats from the same races as above...
...which would seem to rule out the likes of Final Orders, In Excelsis Deo, Presentandcounting, Do Your Job and Torn And Frayed, suggesting that I focus on these seven runners all rated 5-8lbs higher than their last win...
...and I should probably remove Idalko Bihoue as the weakest of the seven, especially as he's been away for a while and is up two classes.
In the past, middle distance chases here at Cheltenham with medium-sized fields on good/good to soft ground have rewarded those brave enough to take the race on and set the tempo...
...with leaders claiming 32.65% of the wins and 20.42% of the places from just 12.23% of the runners, which looks like good news for Scarface, Gemirande and Our Jet from the six runners I'm still looking at...
...although I suspect that Idalko Bihoue might also want to get involved early doors.
Summary
Instant Expert helped me cut the field from twelve to six and whilst I personally think that Il Ridoto should be the horse to beat here, I fear that if he continues to race towards the back of the field, he'll struggle to make up ground although he did make the frame on three successive occasions over the winter by racing prominently/leading, so maybe his team will revert to those tactics. If that happens, then he'd be the one to beat and whilst his 11/2 ticket (as of 3pm Tuesday) is a fair price, it's essentially a punt on which tactics you think his team will employ.
Should he go on to win/place, then there are still three places (or more if you use SkyBet!) to aim for and with the market currently looking like this...
...the in-form Scarface looks a decent E/W option to Il Ridoto. Gemirande and Our Jet would be more speculative suggestions here, but I think both are better than those odds might suggest and both are capable of putting in a big run.
Other Recent Posts by This Author:
- Tix Picks, Saturday 04/01/25
- Tix Picks, Friday 03/01/25
- Tix Picks, Thursday 02/01/25
- Tix Picks, Tuesday 31/12/24
- Tix Picks, Monday 30/12/24
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