Racing Insights

Racing Insights Wednesday 19/01/22

Wednesday's free Geegeez GOLD feature is the Trainer Stats (TS) report, which is actually four reports in one, containing information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five-year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the above 4-in-1 report, we also have the daily selection of 'free' races and they are set to be...

  • 2.00 Plumpton
  • 2.25 Newbury
  • 2.35 Plumpton
  • 3.00 Newbury

I only really use the TS report for handicaps and my fairly stringent settings have only generated one possible runner for tomorrow...

Dynamite Kentucky looks like he'll go off quite short, so I'm going to look at the last of our four free races, the 3.00 Newbury, which is an 11-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ handicap chase (for the Harwell Trophy) over 2m7½f. The going is said to be Good to Soft and they'll go left handed over 18 fences in a bid to land the £5,882 first prize...

Storm Control likes to set the pace and won back to back stayers' chases at Cheltenham in Nov/Dec of 2020, but has been pulled in three of five since, including both runs this season. Wouldn't be one to trust on form but he is down two classes here.

Landofsmiles went 11121 over fences in a three month spell from March to June last year, but has struggled off higher marks as a result and was beaten by some 50 lengths here LTO. Now down to his last winning mark, but seems out of touch.

Django Django won here over three miles two years ago and disappointed ever since, failing to complete three of his last five and losing the other two by 39L and 33L. Not for me, thanks.

Keep Wondering is two from four over fences and was game when winning at Haydock (C3, 2m6f) on heavy ground last time out, coming late from off the pace to win by half a length. A 3lb rise makes this more difficult but not impossible.

Hawthorn Cottage went 131 over fences last year before disappointing down in trip to a possibly inadequate 2m4f. She was also well beaten (16L) last time out here over three miles, but she was in Listed company that day and could well be seen in a better light down two classes.

The Devils Drop was a more than useful hurdler (3w, 2pl from 9) landing a hat-trick in the summer of 2018, but hasn't anywhere near as successful over fences and lacks consistency. Was a really good runner-up at Wincanton in early December two starts ago, but was pulled up in both races either side of that. Just two places (no wins) from seven over fences so far, he's not my idea of a winner here.

Young Wolf last won a race 16 months ago and has suffered ten defeats since, going down by 65L and 60L in his last two. His mark has plummeted in that time from 142 to today's 120, but I doubt that'll be enough to arrest a poor run of form.

Mellow Ben is on a long (15 races) losing streak over fences, but has made the frame in two of his last three, including finishing third of sixteen in a Listed contest on his last effort, suggesting a possible return to form.

Cuban Pete won on his 2020 seasonal reappearance despite a 227 day absence and he backed that run up with another win four weeks later, but in four races since he has finished second to last twice and failed to complete twice and his jumping has been sketchy.

Wayfinder has only raced 9 times to date and has a win and a place from four over fences, having been a runner-up on chase debut in Oct'20, then winning at Chepstow the same month. He was hampered and brought down on his return from a 409 day absence last month and ran well here for much of 3m2f last time out before fading. Down 3f and 2lbs will help.

Tango Boy won his only bumper and made the frame in half of his six hurdles races with out winning, but has yet to translate that form into this sphere finishing 6th of 10 (36L) and last of 4 (33L) so far. Eased 3lbs but up in class, he's probably not winning here either, but he is an unknown quantity.

Six of these have won over a similar trip and one has won here, but overall their relevant form looks like this...

Landofsmiles' 2020/21 form is the standout there, but we have to remember what poor form he's currently in. Aside from him, Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage are probably the best, although Storm Control is interesting down in class and weight. I mentioned earlier that he likes to race from the front and that's probably a good idea here...

and should also benefit the likes of Hawthorn Cottage.

...whilst the decent return from hold-up horses (IV 1.15) is encouraging for the likes of  Keep Wondering and Mellow Ben.

Summary

There's quite a few here that I've not liked from the initial resumé and I've been mainly interested in Keep Wondering, Hawthorn Cottage, Mellow Ben and Wayfinder.

Keep Wondering & Hawthorn Cottage then ticked boxes on Instant Expert and pace, Mellow Ben hasn't won for ages, but looks like coming into form and ran really well in a higher grade LTO, whilst Wayfinder ran well for most of his last run, but doesn't score well since.

I think it has to be between Keep Wondering and Hawthorn Cottage and there's probably not much between them. They both rated the same by the assessor, but the latter is dropping two classes and at 8/1 with 888Sport is far more attractively priced than Keep Wondering at 2/1.

I have Hawthorn Cottage as a 6/1 chance personally, so I'll take 888's price and take a small 8/1 E/W bet. I can't back Keep Wondering at 2's and Wayfinder looks short at 4's to 6's. I did fancy a small E/W tickle on mellow ben at 12's or bigger, but 8/1 just doesn't float my boat, so I'll have to play a waiting game there.

 

 

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