Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 20/04/22

The Trainer Stats (TS) report is Wednesday's free GOLD feature and this report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course since 2009, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to the free access to the TS report, we also have the following 'races of the day' for all to view...

  • 1.40 Catterick
  • 3.35 Perth
  • 4.20 Ludlow
  • 4.30 Catterick
  • 5.45 Bellewstown

Quite often my settings for the TS report ...

...are so restrictive that I have hardly any qualifiers, but I seem to be over inundated with them for Wednesday, so I'm going to leave them alone and head North for an intriguing-looking contest for the 3.35 Perth. It's a six-runner, Listed, 5yo+ Novice Hurdle (12 flights) over a right-handed three miles on good to soft ground. It's worth almost £13,100 and five of the following were priced at 3/1 to 4/1 on the opening show...

As you'd expect from a race of this standard, all six have some decent results under their belts, even if they do lack experience and most of them are stepping up in class here. Famous Bridge won a Class 2 contest last time out, whilst The Goffer was unplaced at that level, Galia des Liteaux was third in a Class 3, whilst Del la Mar Rocket was a Class 4 runner-up.

Mahler Mission has already won over 3m½f, so he's proven at the trip, but the others have yet to go beyond 2m7f. 33 to 46 days rest seems to be the popular option here with only Galia de Liteaux off track longer at 88 days.

Paul Nicholls (Complete Unknown) won this race last year and is in good form (14) whilst Gordon Elliott (The Goffer) has a good record at this track (C5). Five of the six jockeys have positive icons by their names with Sean Bowen (The Goffer) and Tom Scudamore (Mahler Mission) highlighted for both recent form and track record.

MAHLER MISSION
His only failure to make the frame in his five starts to date was when he was 7th of 16 in Gr 1 Alfred Bartlett at the recent Cheltenham Festival, so no disgrace there and it was a useful second attempt at 3m or further having already won a Gr 2 over similar at Doncaster in January. A repeat of that run puts him right in the mix here.

THE GOFFER
His sole run beyond 2m4½f saw him beaten by 10 lengths as 4th of 7 in a minor race at Thurles in January, but he dropped back to 2m4½f to land a Grade 3 novice event at the same track a month later. Didn't go well last time out, mind, when only 15th of 23 (24 lengths down) in the Partin Pipe Class 2 handicap at Cheltenham last month and is now up in class.

COMPLETE UNKNOWN
Won on bumper debut at Thurles a little over 13 months ago and has since raced five times over hurdles in the UK finishing 32321, improving every time culminating in a three lengths success in a big-field (17 ran) grade 3 contest at Sandown almost six weeks ago. Only 4 of his 16 rivals have re-emerged so far, but three of the four have won, albeit at a lower level. I've no doubts about his ability, but this is a half mile further than LTO and 2f further than he's ever raced.

DEL LA MAR ROCKET
A win and a runner-up finish from three Class 5 bumpers preceded a couple of poor Class 4 hurdles run. He then suddenly produced a win by 8.5 lengths at Ffos Las in January before backing it up with a runner-up finish at Uttoxeter. This all seems good, but he's never been beyond 2m6f, ran at 2m4f LTO and has never raced higher than Class 4 : this could be tough.

FAMOUS BRIDGE
The only blot on his hurdling copybook so far is when he unseated his rider 2 out on his Class 2 handicap debut two starts ago, but he soon made amends by winning by five lengths over 2m5f on soft ground next/last time out. has raced at 2m7f and was a 1.75 length runner-up on soft ground at Kelso just after Christmas, so the trip should be fine here and he's probably the 'form' horse overall.

GALIA DES LITEAUX
The only mare in the race is also the least experienced/exposed after just two starts under rules. We didn't learn much from her win on debut when coasting home by 30 lengths in a Class 4 race over 2m4f at Wetherby on Boxing Day, but she didn't have it all her own way when only third of eight at Ascot four weeks later, when stepped up to 2m5½f at Class 3. Up in trip here by another 2½f and up two classes means this is going to be a tricky assignment, although he did win her sole 3m PTP outing by eleven lengths, so she might well get the trip.

Not much in the way for results of any kind to go off, never mind form from similar races to this one, but let's see what relevant experience they do have by consulting the Instant Expert...

As I expected, really : not much to go off, but plenty of green blocks from the few runs they have had. Good to see that all three Class 1 runners have won at this level or higher, though. I'm not surprised now that the opening show of odds was so tight! Let's see if the pace angle of the race sheds any further light on things...

Galia des Liteaux has been keen to get on with things in her two runs so far, but might not be able to assert early with the likes of Del La Mar Rocket and possibly Mahler Mission in close company. The Goffer looks the one who'll be waited with. As for previous similar contests here at Perth...

...they have favoured those who press on.

Summary

I wasn't particularly keen on the chances of Del La Mar Rocket or The Goffer from the outset, based on form, class movement and their lack of experience at longer trips, whilst there's enough doubts about Galia des Liteaux on class to rule her out of my thoughts.

This instantly leaves me with three and whilst there's not going to be much between Complete Unknown, Famous Bridge and Mahler Mission, I fancy the 7/2 Complete Unknown to just about get the better of Mahler Mission. Paul Nicholls is in good form, he won this last year and his runner here was very impressive when landing a 17-runner grade 3 race last time out and rarely seems to run a bad race.

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