Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 22/06/22

Wednesday's free feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is, in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! As ever, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

Wednesday's free feature is, of course, accompanied by a set of free functional racecards for all readers...

  • 4.05 Worcester
  • 5.00 Bath
  • 5.10 Naas
  • 7.10 Naas
  • 7.50 Kempton

The only thing of note from my TS report settings is...

...but as the yard haven't had a Kempton winner beyond a mile, I think the 5.00 Bath might be better from an analysis perspective. It looks pretty competitive for a low grade contest featuring 10 runners in a Class 5, 3yo+ flat handicap over a left-handed 1m5f on good to firm ground...

FORM : Hashtagmetoo has placed in the last two runs, as has Franco Grasso (including a win). Rushford won LTO and With Pleasure was a runner-up.

CLASS : Flying Dragon, Caramelised and Choirmaster drop down a lever, but Hoffman drops three classes, whilst With Pleasure is up one.

COURSE/DISTANCE : Choirmaster and With Pleasure are both former Bath winners over 1m and 2m1f respectively, whilst both Hashtagmetoo and Singing The Blues are course and distance winners. No others have won at either track nor trip.

DAYS OFF TRACK : With Pleasure and Choirmaster are longest since a run but 29/30 days, rustiness shouldn't be an issue. Conversely, Flying Dragon & Singing The Blues ran just 11/12 days ago.

AGE : We have four 3 yr olds here (Choirmaster, Cabrakan, Rushford & Hoffman) all receiving a hefty 15lbs weight for age allowance, whilst bottom weight With Pleasure is the oldest at 9yr old.

Hashtagmetoo, Franco Grasso, Rushford and With Pleasure appear to be the one bringing the best recent results to the table, but Instant Expert allows us to check how relevant those recent runs were and shows us who might be best suited by conditions...

...so we want to be with those in green, even if they're not 100% persuasive yet. What the above does tell me, is that I should probably give Flying Dragon & With Pleasure a wide berth with their Class 5 records reading 1 from 22 and 1 from 15 respectively. A word about Hashtagmetoo's 0/9 at Class 5, he's actually won at Class 4 earlier in his career.

The draw...

Not too surprisingly over 1m5f, there's no real draw bias at play here, although those drawn higher seen to have more chance of making the frame.

Pace...

It's not the biggest sample size we've ever used, but it does show that mid-division runners fare best, but with IV figures of 0.96 and 0.87 respectively, it'd be foolish to just write off the chances of hold-up or prominent runners...

...but I don't think you want to be on the sharp here, making a target for yourself, which based on recent efforts, doesn't sound like good news for Choirmaster, Singing The Blues or Hoffman...

...whereas the likes of Hashtagmetoo, Franco Grasso and Cabrakan look to have the perfect positioning.

Summary

I've quickly gone through the tools available and I've made a mental note and despite his record at the grade, Hashtagmetoo looks like the one I'd want to be on here. He's in good form, he's a former course and distance winner, his record at Bath reads 143133 and he looks set to adopt that mid-division positioning.

The one I expect to cause him most problems would be Franco Grassso, in arguably even better form this season and anther likely to adopt a mid-division berth. Of the rest, it's much of a muchness really. Perhaps LTO winner Rushford for the tricast/trifecta?

I've wrapped up early (3.30pm) today, as I've got parents' evening later, which means no prices are out just yet, but I'd be looking for around the 5/1 mark about Hashtagmetoo.

 

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