Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 25/05/22

Wednesday's free feature, the Trainer Stats (TS) report is in fact four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this report, we also have the following free races of the day...

  • 1.40 Beverley
  • 2.00 Newton Abbot
  • 2.20 Hamilton
  • 3.40 Beverley
  • 5.35 Warwick

And I think we'll head to Devon for the 2.00 Newton Abbot, a 5-runner, Class 3, 5yo+ Handicap Chase (20 Fences) over a Left Handed 3m2f on Good ground...

No LTO winners here, but From The Heart was a course and distance runner-up three weeks ago. Get The Appeal was thired LTO, but only 4 ran and that was a class lower than today and over hurdles. With regard to today's conditions, Sizing Cusimano has won a 3m2½f chase (Uttoxeter) and Flying Verse has also won here over 3m2½f.

The 11 yr old St Erney returns from 160 days off track, so his fitness will need to be taken on trust, as will that of top-weight Sizing Cusimano, who hasn't been seen since early September, but his yard and rider are both in good nick. In fact, all five runners have positive numbers for yard and/or jockey with no red in sight which is unusual.

SIZING CUSIMANO
Had a good summer last year with two solid wins and two narrow defeats as a runner-up culminating by going down by just a head over course and distance at the end of August. He was quickly turned back 8 days later and was last home of 6 beaten by 33 lengths at Uttoxeter and hasn't been seen since (259 days) Likely to need the run.

ST ERNEY
Was a winner and then a runner-up beaten by 0.75 lengths in back to back 3m½f chases at Exeter in November, but struggled on softer ground there 25 days later managing only 9th of 17, some 32 lengths off the pace. Hasn't raced since and like the one above, will probably need the run and at 11 yrs of age, the game isn't getting any easier.

FROM THE HEART
Has won 4 of 17 over fences with three further placed efforts, so he knows the job in hand. Hasn't won in five outings since scroing by 34 lengths at Exeter in mid-October, but was second here over course and distance earlier this month off today's mark of just 2lbs higher than his last win. Wily trainer Mr Hobbs has him in first time blinkers here in a bid to eke a bit more from him and it wouldn't take much improvement to land this.

GET THE APPEAL
Inexperienced/unexposed over fences, but was a 12 length runner-up of five on her only previous chase effort. In fairness, she hasn't had a great year over hurdles, finishing 5th of 6 (32L), 7th of 8 (8L), pulled up, 3rd of 10 (10L) and then just 3rd of 4 last time out. This is a quarter mile further than she's gone before and there seems a few unanswered questions.

FLYING VERSE
This very experienced 10 yr old won here over course and distance way back in July 2019 and won over 3m2½f at Kelso just six starts ago, but has run poorly since. He failed to complete two of his last four and was 5th of 6 (46L) and last of 4 (102L) in the other two and I'd not be surprised if he finishes last here.

Get The Appeal only has one previous effort over fences, so there's not much to look at there, but the rest have more under the belts and Instant Expert has the low down on how they've performed under expected conditions...

In fairness, there's not a lot to be gleaned from that from a positive perspective, but it does raise doubts about St Erney's record at this grade and likewise for Flying Verse who has also struggled at this trip. He's well weighted at 6lbs below his last win, but his form is lamentable. From The Heart is interesting from a weight aspect.

The pace angle looks fairly self explanatory...

...with the suggestion clearly being that the further forward you race the better and if you're not prominent or leading, then it's a tough ask and if we consider this field's last three outings...

...then it's another red mark against Flying Verse and also possibly St Erney. These two were the negatives on Instant Expert, so I'm happy to rule them out here.

Summary

So, I think after the above that it's a three-horse race where Sizing Cusimano looks most vulnerable after a lengthy absence and carrying top weight, so that leaves me with From The Heart (currently best priced at 7/2 with Hills) and the fav Get The Appeal (2/1 with Bet365), but I'm going to go against the bookies and side with From The Heart.

My pick ran well last time out and knows what's needed here. The fav is inexperienced over fences and has patchy form over hurdles of late and may just need another crack at fences to get her eye in. I expect an interesting battle up top and fingers crossed, I'm on the right one. Forecast looks possible, though.

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