Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 26/01/22

The Trainer Statistics (TS) report is Wednesday's free Gold feature and it is, in fact, four reports in one. The report(s) contain(s) information on a trainer’s recent form, and their longer term course form. For each of 14 day, 30 day, course one year, and course five year, users can filter by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Clicking on any row of the TS report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way!

[Please refer to our User Guide for further information]

In addition to this excellent report, we also offer the following 'free' races of the day...

  • 1.30 Lingfield
  • 2.20 Wincanton
  • 4.00 Lingfield
  • 4.10 Catterick

My settings for the TS report...

have only generated the one possible from the course 1 year handicap report...

...and that same horse is my sole offering for course five year too.

Of the four free races, the chase at Wincanton is the best on paper (Class 3), but only four are set to run and the bookies say only two shorties have a chance, so we'll bypass that and take the last on the list, the 4.00 Lingfield which is a 7-runner, Class 4, 4yo+ A/W handicap over a left-handed 6f on Standard Polytrack...

Top weight Bowling Russian looks the worst on form here, but he does drop in class to run here. Swiss Pride was unplaced in this grade last time out and the rest of the field are all stepping up from Class 5. Of those five class risers, Alablaq & Mobarhin both won last time out. Impeach won two starts ago and although bottom weight Deputise comes here on the back of successive runner-up finishes, he's one of four without a win in their last five outings.

All seven have won over today's trip and all bar El Hombre & Deputise have done it here at Lingfield. Bowling Russian hasn't raced for 21 weeks, but apart from Alablaq's 18-day rest, the rest have all raced in the last fortnight. The assessor suggests a tight race with the first six on the card only rated 6lbs apart.

Bowling Russian is in poor form (7769980), will probably need the run and I'm discounting him now.

I'm going to move quickly towards the draw stats, as the draw may well play an important role in a left handed 6f.

The general inference is that a higher draw is best and this is illustrated by a simple draw sector graph below...

...but stall-by-stall analysis says it's not quite that clear-cut. The linear chart above suggest high draws will win 1.5 times more often than low draws, but as shown below, stall 1 does as well as many others...

This doesn't mean that the draw has no effect of course, but that it's not as profound as we might have expected. I suspect we'll learn more from the tactics employed in such races and we have the pace stats to help us here...

...where leaders win most often and mid-division runners also do very well. Those racing prominently chasing the leaders win almost as often (IV 0.9) as you'd expect, but the takeaway here is that you don't want to be at the back of the field from either a win or place perspective. And when we align pace and draw, we get the following...

So, we're looking for leaders drawn either side of (but not in) the middle of the stalls and if we do get a mid-draw, the advice is to bide your time in mid-division. We have the draw given to us already on the card and as we log the running style of every horse in every race, here are how this field has approached their last four runs...

Impeach will lead from low, Swiss Pride seems to be the mid-division mid-draw horse and if we transfer that data to the heat map...

...you still wouldn't rule any out. This suggests a tight race (as the assessor thinks) and it may well come purely down to form and race suitability. Several of these are course and distance winners, so let's now turn to Instant Expert to see their overall records under expected conditions...

Over the last two years, Bowling Russian has the best figures, but hasn't actually won a race in 14 months, so the above needs to be taken in context. El Hombre, Impeach and Deputise look really poorly placed based on the above, especially on the going. El Hombre is particularly weak at going/class/distance, Impeach on going and Deputise on going/distance and I'm ruling those three out here.

Summary

So, without looking at the horses in depth, I'm down to just three runners. It's a 7-runner race, so I need to discard one more for the places. Alablaq & Mobarhin both won last time out, but step up in class, whilst Swiss Pride did run at this grade but was 8th of 9 over 7f on this very track. He also started 2021 with finishes of 312112 over course and distance, taking his mark from 68 to 79 and although winless in his last eight races, is still on a higher mark than his last win. That's a big negative for me, an out of form horse still needing a career best effort to win. And I think that's Swiss Pride out of the equation.

The fairly lightly raced 4 yr old Alablaq has been consistently there or thereabouts, bar one poor run at Wolverhampton last December in a sequence reading 22424731, finally getting off the mark here over course and distance 18 days ago. He's only up 2lbs for that win and should be on the premises once more. Mobarhin similarly got off the mark over course and distance here last time out, also on his eighth start, but his formline of 85566251 isn't anywhere near as impressive as that of Alablaq, but he certainly ran well her a fortnight ago to hold Deputise off by a comfortable half length.

I'd probably put the two LTO wins as being pretty equal in terms of performance and the fact that Mobarhin is up 3lbs rather than 2 might just be the difference between the two and as such, I'm leaning toward the 3/1 Alablaq to beat the 5/2 fav Mobarhin here.

 

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