Racing Insights

Racing Insights, Wednesday 29/06/22

Wednesday's free GOLD feature, the Trainer Statistics (TS) report is in fact, four reports in one. It contains information on a trainer’s recent (ie 14/30 day) form, and their longer term (1/5 yrs) course form and this data can be filtered by runs, wins, places, win profit/loss and each way profit/loss. Selecting on any row in the report will reveal the runners that trainer has entered on the day in question, and clicking on the runner row will open that race in a new tab.

HINT: It can help to cross refer the profit figures of the trainer with their win/place percentage. A few big priced winners can mean a trainer has a high profit number but a low strike rate. You may need to be very patient, and a bit lucky, to come out in front this way! So, please refer to our User Guide for further information.

In addition to the TS report, we also offer the following fully functional racecards to non-Gold subscribers...

  • 1.50 Thirsk
  • 2.30 Worcester
  • 2.40 Musselburgh
  • 3.00 Worcester
  • 4.40 Tipperary
  • 7.10 Tipperary

My personal settings for the TS report (you get to pick your own)...

...haven't generated much other than...

...but as Termonator runs in one of our 'free' races, it makes sense for me to have a look at the 2.40 Musselburgh, surely? The race itself is actually a lowly Class 6, 8-runner (hopefully staying that way for all the E/W bettors out there) 4yo+ flat handicap over a right handed 1m4½f on good to firm ground and here's the card...

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Our featured horse, Termonator is the top weight here and has a stack of stats denoted by the 9 under his name as follows...

..so it's not just the trainer who does well here on his own. The jockey has a great record here, too and when they combine, the results are excellent.

Termonator has been placed in four of his last six, but didn't win LTO or in any of those six, but the rest of the field have fared little better if truth be told. All bar Lochnaver and Uccello made the first three home LTO, but none won and only Bouncing Bobby has a recent win and he's probably the form horse here followed by our feature runner and then maybe Will He Dance.

None of the field have won at either track or trip, we've no yard debutants, handicap debutants, class movers or runners making a comeback. Lochnaver hasn't raced for nine weeks, but the others have all been out in the last four weeks and whilst Termonator's yard and rider both have good stats about them here, there's not much else in the way of positivity, especially regarding trainer form.

I'm going straight to the tool kit to maybe eliminate some from my enquiries before looking at any of them in any depth, so we'll kick off with Instant Expert, which will highlight race suitability or lack of!

General form looks pretty bleak...

...with Flat handicap data only marginally less fruitful due to a smaller amount of data!

...but when we switch to place form in flat handicaps, we finally see some colours...

...where the eyecatchers (of sorts) are again Termonator, Bouncing Bobby and Will He Dance. The above stats aren't surprising, when you consider that the field have only made the frame 33 times from 164 attempts (20.1%), winning just 6 times (3.66%)! Only City Wanderer (6/33), Termonator (2/30) and Bouncing Bobby (1/22) have actually won a race so far and the five are a combined 0 from 79!

The three highlighted on form and Instant Expert are berthed in stalls 2, 6 & 7 and the draw stats from similar races would suggest that 6 or 7 is a good place to be here...

Getting a good draw is, of course, only half of the battle and in theory, when you race against just 7 rivals at a trip in excess of 1.5 miles, you should be able to over come the draw, so it will come down to race tactics aka 'pace' and in those races above, it has paid to be upfront setting the tempo...

A few of these have just three runs behind them season, so we'll judge recent pace stats on the last three races...

...and on that graphic you'd want to be no lower down than City Wanderer, whilst the pace/draw heat map gives runners a chance from most combinations...

...and if we overlay our pace chart with the draw for this race onto that heatmap, it's not entirely conclusive, I have to admit, but some are on the edge of being well positioned...

...with possibly Bouncing Bobby and Will He Dance having the best of it, although that's subjective at best.

Summary

I wrote the above around 2.30-3.00pm this afternoon, before the markets had formed/opened and throughout the entire process, three names have cropped up repeatedly : Bouncing Bobby, Termonator and Will He Dance. They certainly look the three strongest here and I'd not be surprised at all if they weren't the first three home.

Sadly the market at 5.25pm also has them as the three most likely with Termonator the fav at 9/4, Bouncing Bobby is 10/3 with Will He Dance at 5/1 and I think I also agree with that ordering. Bouncing Bobby and Will He Dance are both a little shorter than I'd expected, but Termonator is probably right at 9/4. There's not much value on offer here, but if you like the fav, I won't talk you out of it.

Kraken Filly at 7's is as near as you'll get to an E/W pick from me today, but I should add that I'm only currently seeing prices from Bet365, so you might get a better deal later.

 

 

 

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