Racing Trends: An Overview

Racing Trends, to quote the main headline on the sales page for this service: "We have analyzed the facts of over 75,000 past UK horse races. With the knowledge we have learnt, we aim to provide you with the most profitable racing service in the UK."

The cost of this service is £29.99 per month or £199 for the full year. The service also comes with a 30 day no quibble refund guarantee which would effectively give you the first month of service free of charge whether or not you were actually dissatisfied. As long as this guarantee is honoured then, as far as the cost of the service is concerned, you have nothing to lose.

The proprietor behind this service is David Renham who, as a researcher, has contributed to the Racing & Football Outlook, The Racing Post and At The Races.

What the Service is

· Positive trends and statistics based on "significantly large samples" of data for horse backers.

· Negative trends and statistics based on "significantly large samples" of data for horse layers.

The sort of information which will be sent daily, generally the evening before the next day's racing, covers the following:

a) Value horses.

b) Draw bias.

c) Horses than ran well against a draw bias recently.

d) Favourites research

e) Poor value, last time out winners

f) Positive and negative trainer stats

g) Trainer course stats

h) Hot Trainers

i) Sire stats

j) Pace information

In addition there may be days where certain races have horse ratings provided. These ratings are derived from a number of key form elements.

To quote Dave directly "The best way to use Racing Trends does depend a bit on the individual. The basic principle is for it to be the place where you get the best statistical information for the day's racing. The aim is for the stats to be better than Racing Post stats and the daily papers stats."

What the Service is Not

It is not a pure tipping service; there is no suggestion that all horses noted should be backed. Again, to quote Dave directly "although all stats given have shown long term profits, it is past profits which cannot be guaranteed for the future. Having said that I try to find the most consistent ones; rather than the "most profitable". I am sure nobody could argue with that approach.

Your first 30 days for just £1

Summary

I would suggest that the provided information is used as an aid in association with either The Racing Post Online (a cost associated with this) or The Sporting Life Online (free) the night before racing to identify possible backing/laying opportunities. Some of the identified trends horses do come with "warning markers" such as a particular going dependency, distance or place in the betting market. To that end any betting/laying opportunities identified the night before should be re-checked on the day of racing. Finally, I would just like to reiterate that this is not a pure tipping service.

Sample Trends and Ratings for Friday 12th June

It is not my intention that this should repeat in its entirety what is provided on a daily basis. What the review will do is attempt to identify key opportunities backing or laying. Subsequent blog entries will provide a post-racing analysis of all the supplied trends and ratings.

Selected Rated Race

9.15 Chepstow (7f)

Convince - 108
This Ones For Eddy - 104
Millfields Dreams - 103
Just Jimmy - 102
Direct Debit - 101

Draw Section

There is a potential for a high draw bias on both the straight course at Sandown (5f) and the straight course at Chepstow (5f to 1 mile). There were signs of a high draw at Chepstow at the two meetings at the end of May. Nothing clear cut in terms of looking purely at draw positions, but most of the winners raced up the near rail. The seller at 7.00 over 6f may give us indication for later handicaps at 8.45 and 9.15.

Postive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Nosedive (2:10 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting.

Bikini Babe (3:15 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting.

Step To It (4:00 York) must be in the top 3 in the betting.

Morning Calm (6:20 Goodwood) Strong Sire Stats

Galilean Moon (7:35 Chepstow) Strong Sire Stats

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%.

Supsonic (3.25 York) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Pace Information

For ‘in running’ punters Le Toreador (York 16.35) is a definite horse to consider with the back before the race and lay off in running – in his last 6 races he has traded 3/1 or shorter in running on every occasion.

Sample Course Trainer Stats (2000 - 2008)

Chepstow - W Kittow 10 wins from 48 runners. Strike Rate = 20.8%, Profit = +£38.95 and ROI = +81.1%

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

P Nicholls (jumps) 33%, Henderson (flat+jumps) 33%, Cumani 32%, Haggas 27%, Swinbank 26%, Wall 25%, King (jumps) 25%, Cox 24%, Johnston 23%, Noseda 23%, Evans 22%, Bell 21%, Stoute 20%, E Williams (jumps) 20%

Your first 30 days for just £1