Racing Trends: Day 1 Update / Day 2 Sample

Racing Trends - Day 1 Update 12th June 2009

Overall the guidance provided (this is not a tipping service) was very reasonable. Clearly the information should be reviewed carefully and not necessarily taken literally in all circumstances. So, how did the sample provided yesterday perform?

Selected Rated Race

9.15 Chepstow (7f)

Convince 108 – 5th 10/1
This Ones For Eddy 104 – 8th 5/1 JF
Millfields Dreams 103 – 2nd 11/2
Just Jimmy 102 – 4th 13/2
Direct Debit 101 – 7th 7/1

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Nosedive (2:10 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting – Won 15/8

Bikini Babe (3:15 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting – Won 4/1

Step To It (4:00 York) must be in the top 3 in the betting – 12th 16/1 (Non qualifier as not in top 3 in the betting).

Morning Calm (6:20 Goodwood) Strong Sire Stats – 6th 8/1

Galilean Moon (7:35 Chepstow) Strong Sire Stats – 3rd 7/1


Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%.

Supsonic (3.25 York) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - 9th 16/1

Sample Course Trainer Stats (2000 - 2008) with runners today

Chepstow - W Kittow 10 wins from 48 runners. Strike Rate = 20.8%, Profit = +£38.95 and ROI = +81.1% - 2 runners one withdrawn (Dove Cottage) and one 3rd (Desert Pride) 11/1


Day 2 Sample - 13th June 2009

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Victorian Art (2:15 Bath) must be in the top 3 in the betting

Head Down (2:20 Sandown) must be favourite

Triple Aspect (3:25 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting

Your first 30 days for just £1

Capacity (4:20 York)

Cotillion (4:35 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting

Wild Rhubarb (5:10 Sandown) must be in the top 6 in the betting

Negative Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

The Two G's (5:50 Lingfield) Poor Sire Stat - non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%.

Falpiase (2.05 York) -  Poor LTO 1st stat - off track for 6 months since win and previous to that win off for 6 months or more SR 10.1% ROI -51.7%

Riguez Dancer (2.05 York) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Harry Up (5.05 Bath) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Another Try (6.20 Lingfield) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

Cumani 36%, M Jarvis 33%, Swinbank 26%, Haggas 25%, Wall 25%, King (jumps) 24%, Vaughan 23%, Fahey 21%, Bell 21%, Portman 21%, Johnston 20%, Noseda 20%, Evans 20%, Howard Johnson 20%

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