Racing Trends: Day 10 Update / Day 11 Information

Racing Trends - Day 10 Update 21st June 2009

Comments

On a very ‘thin’ day for Flat racing with only one meeting, the “Positive Stats” section identified 3 runners which yielded 1 non-runner and 1 winner (Shemoli – Won 7/4). The “Negative Stats” section identified 2 runners which yielded 1 non-runner with the remaining selection (Full Speed) being well beaten.

Day 11 Information – 22nd June 2009

Value Horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term. Qualifying horse - 2.30 Wolverhampton - Aureate

Draw Section

Chepstow – 5f to 1mile – on the straight course there used to be a high draw bias and there have been a few signs recently that the ground under the high rail may be quicker again. It is worth watching the early races on the straight course to see if it is worth playing high draws in the last two races on the card.

Market Information (2000 - 2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. Qualifying race - 6.50 Chepstow

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

4:15 Lingfield Maria Nunziata** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

4:45 Lingfield Love In The Park* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6:50 Chepstow Solemn* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

7:40 Windsor  Mamlakati** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

7:40 Windsor Mamlakati** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

8:10 Windsor Cumana Bay** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

8:10 Windsor Cumana Bay** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride** J Noseda favourites in maidens who finished 2nd LTO SR 60% ROI +11.5%

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

9:10 Windsor Salybia Bay** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

9:10 Windsor Cayman Sky** R Hannon at Windsor in 3yo handicaps priced 14/1 or shorter SR 25.7% ROI +111.8% (51.4% win + placed at average odds of 7.8/1)

9:20 Chepstow Caster Sugar** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

Negative Trainer Stats

2:15 Lingfield Guesswork Poor Sire Stat - Rock of Gibraltar on all weather female runners SR 1.8% loss -92.7%

4:00 Wolverhampton Captain's Paradise Poor Sire Stat - Rock of Gibraltar on all weather female runners SR 1.8% loss -92.7%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

2:30 Wolverhampton Saameq Poor LTO 1st stat - off track for 6 months since win and previous to that win off for 6 months or more SR 10.1% ROI -51.7%

8:10 Windsor Silent Hero Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Course Trainer Stats – please note that I have updated the trainer course stats for Windsor covering 2005 to the latest meeting in 2009.

Windsor trainer stats 2005-2009 (best strike rates)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

Sir M Stoute

30

114

26.3%

-£6.08

-5.3%

S Bin Suroor

16

71

22.5%

-£3.45

-4.9%

E McMahon

7

32

21.9%

+£22.13

+69.1%

H Cecil

5

25

20.0%

+£0.42

+1.7%

J Noseda

11

57

19.3%

+£35.24

+61.8%

M Jarvis

14

81

17.3%

+£25.38

+31.3%

G Butler

5

29

17.2%

+£37.50

+129.3%

R Hannon

81

474

17.1%

+£32.39

+6.8%

M Usher

10

59

17.0%

+£87.75

+148.7%

W Haggas

9

57

15.8%

-£16.67

-29.3%

B Hills

20

128

15.6%

-£18.80

-14.7%

J Gosden

13

84

15.5%

-£0.67

-36.5%

D Simcock

5

35

14.3%

+£18.25

+52.1%

M Bell

11

78

14.1%

-£33.45

-42.9%

G Margarson

6

43

14.0%

+£20.50

+47.7%

D Elsworth

14

102

13.7%

+£8.11

+8.0%

R Charlton

13

95

13.7%

-£28.10

-29.6%

A King

8

61

13.1%

+£8.50

+13.9%

P Winkworth

6

46

13.0%

+£59.25

+128.8%

Key Trainer Stats – this is a new section that will occur from time to time. The focus will be on one specific trainer who has a good record at the course in question.

R Hannon – Windsor record 2005 to now

2009 course record – 12 wins from 38 (SR 31.6%) ROI +9%

Race type comparison:

Race type

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

2yo Maidens

23

148

15.5%

-£4.51

-3.0%

2yo Maiden (fillies only races)

7

38

18.4%

+£3.34

+8.8%

3yo Maidens

0

12

0%

-£12.00

-100%

3yo+ Maidens (inc. 3-4yo)

1

18

5.6%

-£16.27

-90.4%

Claimers

2

13

15.4%

-£3.10

-23.8%

Handicaps

41

217

18.9%

+£86.63

+39.9%

3yo only handicaps

19

93

20.4%

+£63.75

+68.5%

Novice races

4

15

26.7%

-£4.39

Your first 30 days for just £1

-29.3%

Nursery handicaps

3

29

10.3%

+£5.00

+17.2%

Sellers

2

11

18.2%

-£3.60

-32.7%

Market comparison:

Market Rank

Wins

Runs

SR

Profit

ROI

Favourite

32

85

37.7%

+£24.39

+28.7%

2nd Favourite

23

80

28.8%

+£33.50

+41.9%

3rd Favourite

9

56

16.1%

+£5.50

+9.8%

Excellent record for Hannon when Richard Hughes rides – SR 24% ROI +39.9%

Fairly poor record for Hannon with 2yo making their debut – SR 10.3% ROI -37.1%

Current Trainer Form

Last 7 Days (3 or More Wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Gask

3

8

37.5%

J Noseda

6

19

31.6%

R Hannon

11

38

28.9%

R Hollinshead

3

11

27.3%

J Quinn

4

17

23.5%

M Johnston

11

51

21.6%

D Simcock

3

14

21.4%

B Hills

3

15

20%

M Bell

3

16

18.8%

R Fahey

7

39

17.9%

I Semple

3

18

16.7%

K Ryan

4

28

14.3%

Sir M Stoute

3

22

13.6%

M Channon

5

46

10.9%

S Bin Suroor

3

28

10.7%

J Gosden

3

30

10%

Last 14 Days (4 or More Wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

S Williams

4

11

36.4%

J Noseda

9

31

29%

H Morrison

7

29

24.1%

D Simcock

5

23

21.7%

R Fahey

16

76

21.1%

M Bell

5

24

20.8%

M Johnston

17

84

20.2%

Sir M Stoute

6

30

20%

J Quinn

6

30

20%

R Hannon

14

74

18.9%

E Dunlop

5

31

16.1%

S Bin Suroor

5

34

14.7%

W Haggas

5

35

14.3%

B Meehan

6

45

13.3%

J Goldie

4

33

12.1%

G Swinbank

4

33

12.1%

K Ryan

5

43

11.6%

D Nicholls

5

48

10.4%

M Channon

8

80

10%

K R Burke

4

40

10%

Last 21 Days (4 or More Wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Noseda

10

36

27.8%

M Bell

7

32

21.9%

H Morrison

8

37

21.6%

L Cumani

7

33

21.2%

M Johnston

27

129

20.9%

Sir M Stoute

9

44

20.5%

R Fahey

21

106

19.8%

H Cecil

7

36

19.4%

B Millman

5

26

19.2%

J Quinn

7

42

16.7%

R Hannon

19

115

16.5%

G Swinbank

8

49

16.3%

D Simcock

5

31

16.1%

E Alston

5

33

15.2%

J Given

5

34

14.7%

W Haggas

6

43

14.0%

S Bin Suroor

6

44

13.6%

B Meehan

6

50

12.0%

B Hills

5

42

11.9%

E Dunlop

5

42

11.9%

J Goldie

6

51

11.8%

K R Burke

6

55

10.9%

M Channon

12

113

10.6%

M Dods

5

48

10.4%

D Nicholls

8

78

10.3%

P Evans

6

61

9.8%

P Cole

5

54

9.3%

K Ryan

5

66

7.6%

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

8:40 Windsor Rocky's Pride – Must be Favourite to Qualify.

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