Racing Trends: Day 11 Update / Day 12 Information

Racing Trends - Day 11 Update 22nd June 2009

Comments

The “Value Horse” did the business but at a ‘skinny price’ (Aureate – Won 8/13F). The “Positive Stats” section identified 9 runners which yielded 2 nice winners (Love In The Park – Won 3/1F) and (Solemn – Won 12/1). The “Negative Stats” section turned up trumps again with all negative horses being well beaten.

Day 12 Information – 23rd June 2009

Draw Section

Beverley 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 13.8%

Middle third of the draw 34.5%

Top third of the draw 51.7%

5.45 Beverley is a qualifying race -the top third of the draw have been roughly four times more likely to win than the bottom third of the draw. The general perception is that the bias is not as strong as it was a few years ago, and although this is probably the case, it is still one of the most potent biases in the country.

Best drawn horses - Rio Pomba (drawn 16), Unbelievable Jeff (drawn 15), Lithaam (drawn 14) Foreign Rhythm (drawn 13) and Future Gem (drawn 12)

Beverley 7f 100yds - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 19.4%

Middle third of the draw 36.1%

Top third of the draw 44.4%

3.15 Beverley is a qualifying race - In general therefore horses from the top third have a slight edge, while low draws do struggle.

Newbury 5f - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 36.4%

Middle third of the draw 27.3%

Top third of the draw 36.4%

9.00 Newbury is a qualifying race - A very even playing field so if you fancy any horse the draw will not be a problem.

Brighton 5f - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 26.9%

Middle third of the draw 42.3%

Top third of the draw 30.8%

5.30 Brighton is a qualifying race - The perceived low draw bias is not evident in the stats. Indeed the lowest draws have had the worst win record in the past four seasons.

Market Information (2000 - 2008)

Positive Market Stats if They Start Favourite

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

As usual I have decided to list the races where the above stat qualifies – then if any of those races the favourite is in the top four of the weights then he/she would qualify. The 2.45 Beverley and 5.00 Brighton are identified as qualifying races.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2:15 Beverley Rock Of Love** M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2:45 Beverley Monroe Gold * Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:15 Beverley Cross of Lorraine* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:45 Beverley Smarterthanuthink** R Fahey - Beverley handicaps top 2 in the betting SR 35% ROI +51%

4:15 Beverley Bo McGinty** R Fahey - Beverley handicaps top 2 in the betting SR 35% ROI +51%

7:55 Newbury Lady Artemisia Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

9:00 Newbury Requisite* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

5:30 Brighton Malapropism Poor Trainer Stat - M Channon in handicaps at Brighton SR 4.4% ROI -58.6%

Current Trainer Form

Last 7 days (3 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Gask

3

7

42.9%

R Hannon

11

35

31.4%

R Hollinshead

3

10

30%

J Noseda

5

17

29.4%

M Johnston

12

56

21.4%

D Simcock

3

14

21.4%

J Quinn

4

19

21.1%

M Bell

3

15

20%

B Hills

3

15

20%

I Semple

3

16

18.8%

R Fahey

7

40

Your first 30 days for just £1

17.5%

P Midgley

3

20

15%

Last 14 days (4 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

SR

J Noseda

9

30

30%

H Morrison

7

28

25%

D Simcock

5

23

21.7%

M Bell

5

24

20.8%

Sir M Stoute

6

29

20.7%

R Fahey

16

78

20.5%

M Johnston

18

90

20%

R Hannon

14

75

18.7%

J Quinn

6

33

18.2%

E Dunlop

5

31

16.1%

S Bin Suroor

5

35

14.3%

W Haggas

5

36

13.9%

B Meehan

6

45

13.3%

J Goldie

4

33

12.1%

G Swinbank

4

34

11.8%

K R Burke

5

43

11.6%

K Ryan

5

43

11.6%

D Nicholls

5

48

10.4%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Beverley 5f

Leaders 3.25

Prominent / chased leaders 1.1

Hold up / behind 0.55

There is no genuine front runner in the field, but four horses drawn 9 or higher could lead (or least have led in at least one of their last four starts). This looks an “in running” play getting on quickly whoever gets to the rail and leads.

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1 reply
  1. Jonathan Sutcliffe says:

    You can’t have those 2 nice winners

    4:45 Lingfield Love In The Park* Positive sire stats – Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%
    6:50 Chepstow Solemn* Positive sire stats – Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

    As not seen a drop of rain for days

Comments are closed.