Racing Trends: Day 12 Update / Day 13 Information (final day)

Racing Trends - Day 12 Update 23rd June 2009

Comments

The “Draw” section was pretty much spot on with respect to the Beverley 5.45 where draw 13 (Foreign Rythmn – Won 10/1), draw 15 Unbelievable Jeff – 2nd 2/1F and draw 14 Lithaam – 3rd 7/1 being separated by 2 heads. The “Positive Stats” section identified 7 runners which yielded 2 winners (Rock Of Love – Won 11/10F) and (Lady Artemisia – Won 5/2). The single entry (Malapropism) in the “Negative Stats” section was well beaten.

Day 13 Information – 24th June 2009

Note that this is the final day of the trial. You can get a further 30 days access to this bumper stat pack from the link below:

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Draw Section

Kempton 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2006 to 2009):

Bottom third of the draw 27.7%

Middle third of the draw 25.4%

Top third of the draw 46.9%

7.50 Kempton is a qualifying race.

Conclusion -the top third of the draw have a definite edge.

Well drawn horses – Midnight Fantasy (drawn 11), Nobilissima (drawn 10), Dualagi (drawn 9) and Beautiful Filly (drawn 8)

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2:10 Salisbury Filwa Sire Stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13%

3:35 Carlisle Paraguay* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3:50 Salisbury Battle Planner M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f+ in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5:15 Carlisle Grudge D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

7:10 Bath Midnight Bay M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 22%; ROI +13.5%

7:20 Kempton Pastel Blue M Bell 2yo maidens - 2nd career start; finished 2nd to 5th LTO on debut SR 33% ROI +42%

7:40 Bath April Fool Pivotal Sire System 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure SR 20% ROI +32%

7:40 Bath April Fool* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%)

9:10 Bath Tadlil* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

6:50 Kempton Rezwaan E Dunlop - poor stat - 2yo males over 7f+ on debut SR 3% ROI loss -75.4%

Course Trainer Stats – please note that I have updated the trainer course stats and have decided to cover 2005 to the latest meeting in 2009. I am including all trainers that have had at least 4 wins – hence good, poor and moderate course trainers are now shown:

Salisbury trainer stats ALL RACES 2005-2009 (ordered by strike rate – 4 or more wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

Profit

ROI (%)

S Bin Suroor

10

32

31.3

+£3.14

+9.8

Mrs S Liddiard

5

16

31.3

+£28.00

+175.0

Sir M Stoute

14

51

27.5

+£17.62

+34.6

T Dascombe

4

18

22.2

+£9.82

+54.6

L Cumani

7

34

20.6

-£4.00

-11.8

R Charlton

9

52

17.3

-£14.30

-27.5

J Gosden

9

54

16.7

+£6.40

+11.9

B Hills

9

55

16.4

-£7.75

-14.1

D Elsworth

19

119

16.0

-£27.52

-23.1

H Morrison

16

105

15.2

+£25.1

+23.9

H Candy

7

50

14.0

+£5.83

+11.7

A King

5

36

13.9

-£10.00

-27.8

R Beckett

14

104

13.5

-£17.75

-17.1

R Harris

7

53

13.2

-£2.63

-5.0

C Cox

6

46

13.0

-£5.17

-11.2

B Meehan

7

54

13.0

-£17.50

-32.4

R Hannon

44

341

12.9

-£60.71

-17.8

W Swinburn

6

48

12.5

-£13.45

-28.0

M Tregoning

5

47

10.6

+£20.25

+43.1

S Kirk

9

90

10.0

-£13.67

-15.2

A Balding

11

112

9.8

-£23.92

-21.4

Mrs A Perrett

9

92

9.8

-£18.63

-20.2

Mrs P Dutfield

6

63

9.5

+£11.5

+18.3

W Muir

4

45

8.9

-£16.25

-36.1

J Hills

5

62

8.1

-£24.75

-39.9

P Cole

4

52

7.7

-£28.27

-54.4

M  Channon

11

150

7.3

-£50.73

-33.8

J Dunlop

8

117

6.8

-£27.13

-23.2

M Blanshard

4

62

6.5

+£1.00

+1.6

J Bradley

4

72

5.6

Your first 30 days for just £1

-£28.00

-38.9

B Millman

7

129

5.4

-£66.67

-51.7

Current Trainer Form – with the 5 year strike rate as comparison

Last 7 Days (3 or more wins +10% SR)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

5 year Strike rate (%)

J Gask

3

8

37.5

7.4

Tom Dascombe

3

10

30

18.2

S Callaghan

3

11

27.3

12.9

J Noseda

4

17

23.5

19.5

M Johnston

12

56

21.4

16

M Bell

3

14

21.4

13.2

I Semple

3

14

21.4

11.5

J Quinn

4

19

21.1

8.9

R Hannon

8

40

20

11.8

B Hills

4

20

20

13.7

B Millman

3

15

20

8.5

D Simcock

3

15

20

10.6

R Fahey

6

31

19.4

10.9

P Midgley

3

19

15.8

6.2

K Ryan

4

27

14.8

12

J Gosden

3

27

11.1

18.3

S Bin Suroor

3

28

10.7

23.1

M Channon

4

46

8.7

10.9


Last 14 days (3 or more wins)

Trainer

Wins

Runs

Strike Rate (%)

5 year Strike rate (%)

R Curtis

3

7

42.9

5.3

A King

3

9

33.3

10.4

J Noseda

9

32

28.1

19.5

H Morrison

8

31

25.8

12.6

J Gask

3

12

25

7.4

M Bell

5

23

21.7

13.2

D Simcock

5

24

20.8

10.6

Sir M Stoute

6

29

20.7

21.8

M Johnston

18

90

20

16

S Callaghan

3

15

20

12.9

R Fahey

15

76

19.7

10.9

R Hannon

14

81

17.3

11.8

B Millman

4

24

16.7

8.5

R Hollinshead

3

18

16.7

7.3

J Quinn

5

31

16.1

8.9

T Tate

3

19

15.8

12.1

S Bin Suroor

5

35

14.3

23.1

Tom Dascombe

3

21

14.3

18.2

I Semple

3

21

14.3

11.5

W Haggas

5

36

13.9

16.8

K Ryan

6

45

13.3

12

E Dunlop

4

31

12.9

11.5

G Swinbank

4

31

12.9

12.8

J Goldie

4

33

12.1

8.2

J Dunlop

3

25

12

12.4

J Given

3

25

12

8.8

K R Burke

5

42

11.9

10.5

W Brisbourne

3

26

11.5

7.7

B Hills

4

36

11.1

13.7

G L Moore

3

27

11.1

11.6

M Dods

4

37

10.8

10.1

D Nicholls

5

50

10

9.8

R Beckett

3

30

10

10.9

M Channon

8

82

9.8

10.9

B Meehan

4

43

9.3

11.2

P Midgley

3

34

8.8

6.2

P Cole

3

37

8.1

11.9

P Evans

4

50

8

8.6

A Balding

3

41

7.3

10.3

J Gosden

3

47

6.4

18.3

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Leaders 2.75

Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have a decent edge and either Sir Nod or Foxy Music should lead. Sir Nod has arguably the better draw for leading, but both could be value from a pace perspective.


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2 replies
  1. Mezza says:

    Took the advice and jumped on the free trial last night.

    Followed the advice and backed Sir Nod and Foxy Music in a combination forecast at 8-1 and 10-1.

    WOW, thank you for that one.

  2. mattgiffin says:

    i had a combi tricast on the four horses on the draw section….paid a nice sum…..what would be the best bet for these four selections.never done multis

Comments are closed.