Racing Trends: Day 2 Update / Day 3 Sample

Racing Trends - Day 2 Update 13th June 2009

Comments

A bit of a mixed bag on the sample I provided however, and in all fairness to the Racing Trends service, they identified Swiss Diva (Won 10/1) and Mutawarath (Won 6/1) within the “Postive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw) section of their daily message.

The “Negative Stats” were, with the exception of Another Try (Won 4/1), bang on the money with identifying horses to avoid or possibly lay.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Victorian Art (2:15 Bath) must be in the top 3 in the betting – 2nd 3/1

Head Down (2:20 Sandown) must be favourite – 3rd 9/2 (Non qualifier as not the favourite)

Triple Aspect (3:25 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting – Won 15/8F

Capacity (4:20 York) – 5th 15/8F

Cotillion (4:35 Sandown) must be in the top 4 in the betting - NR

Wild Rhubarb (5:10 Sandown) must be in the top 6 in the betting – 3rd 11/4

Negative Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

The Two G's (5:50 Lingfield) Poor Sire Stat - non handicaps over 5f SR 3.3% ROI loss -71.3% - WD 100/1

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Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%

Falpiase (2.05 York) -  Poor LTO 1st stat - off track for 6 months since win and previous to that win off for 6 months or more SR 10.1% ROI -51.7% - 10th 33/1

Riguez Dancer (2.05 York) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - 18th 12/1

Harry Up (5.05 Bath) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - 4th 7/1

Another Try (6.20 Lingfield) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44% - Won 4/1

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

Cumani 36%, M Jarvis 33%, Swinbank 26%, Haggas 25%, Wall 25%, King (jumps) 24%, Vaughan 23%, Fahey 21%, Bell 21%, Portman 21%, Johnston 20%, Noseda 20%, Evans 20%, Howard Johnson 20%

Day 3 Sample - 14th June 2009

Today I have decided to include all of the entries from the “Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw) section of the Racing Trends daily message.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Brisbane (2:55 Doncaster – must be in the top 3 in the betting

Eton Rifles (3:30 Doncaster) Positive sire stats

Interdiamonds (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Racing Hero (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Penolva (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats

Jachol (4:45 Salisbury)

Negative Stats

None identified.

Sample Rated Race

5.10 Doncaster (Long distance)

Isabelonabicycle 105
Miss Keck 105
Forrest Flyer 103
Rose Bien 102
Sir Sandicliffe 102
Monte Pattino 101
Fistral 101

Hot Trainers – trainers that have had 3 or more winners in the last 2 weeks with a strike rate of 20%+

Makin 67%, P Nicholls (jumps) 36%, Noseda 31%, Swinbank 30%, M Jarvis 29%, Morrison 29%, Stoute 26%, E Williams (jumps) 25%, Bowen (jumps) 25%, Given 24%, Johnston 23%, Vaughan 23% Fahey 23%, Bell 21%, King (jumps) 21%,

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