Racing Trends - Day 3 Update 14th June 2009
From the â€œPositive Statsâ€ section there was 1 winner, 2 non-runners and a couple of near misses. The top-rated in the â€œSample Rated Raceâ€ was second.
Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)
Brisbane (2:55Â Doncaster â€“ must be in the top 3 in the betting â€“ 7th 4/1
Eton Rifles (3:30Â Doncaster) Positive sire stats â€“ NR
InterdiamondsÂ (4:35Â Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats â€“ 2nd 3/1
Racing Hero (4:35Â Doncaster)Â Strong Sire Stats â€“ Won 7/2
Penolva (4:35Â Doncaster)Â Strong Sire Stats â€“ NR
JacholÂ (4:45Â Salisbury) â€“ 2nd 11/2
Sample Rated Race
5.10 Doncaster (Long distance)
Isabelonabicycle 105 â€“ 2nd 9/4
Miss Keck 105 â€“ NR
Forrest Flyer 103 â€“ 8th 6/1
Rose Bien 102 â€“ 5th 4/1
Sir Sandicliffe 102 â€“ 6th 6/1
Monte Pattino 101 â€“ NR
Fistral 101 â€“ 7th 7/1
Day 4 Sample - 15th June 2009
As Matt has arranged with Racing Trends that geegeez blog readers can avail themselves of a monthâ€™s free trial, then from today until the end of the review period (21st June) I will include the majority of information contained within the Racing Trends daily mail(s).
Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):
Bottom third of the draw 45.5%
Middle third of the draw 22.7%
Top third of the draw 31.8%
Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.
9.10 Warwick â€“ has 12 runners declared. Lowest two draws and hence the best drawn are Kelamon (drawn 1) and Denâ€™s Gift (drawn 2).
Warwick 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):
Bottom third of the draw 73.3%
Middle third of the draw 26.7%
Top third of the draw 0%
Conclusion - Low draws seem to have a huge advantage, with high draws having a dreadful time. However, it should be noted that there were only 15 qualifying races during the 4-year period so it is small sample to be fully confident in.
7.40 Warwick â€“ has 17 runners declared. The best drawn are Bees River (drawn 1), Milly Rose (drawn 2), Top Flight Splash (drawn 3), Peninsula Girl (drawn 4)
Market Information (2000-2008)
Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:
In June â€“ on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. A qualifying race today is the 3.15 Carlisle.
Positive Stats â€“ (Trainer/Sire/Draw)
Please note â€“ some are price** or going* dependent
Darcy's Pride (3:45Â Carlisle) D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd favourite (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%
April Fool (6:00Â Windsor)Â Positive Sire Stats on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%
There are 6 horses noted in the same race â€“ looks a potentially tight knit maiden
Totally Invincible (7:10Â Warwick)Â Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%
Deal (7:10Â Warwick)Â Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%
Excellent Thought (7:10Â Warwick)Â must be in the top 4 in the betting - SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%
Excellent Thought (7:10Â Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%
Satin Princess (7:10Â Warwick) Strong Sire Stats SR 22.5%; ROI +35%
Exceed Power (7:10Â Warwick)Â Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%
Aalsmeer (7:10Â Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%
Pace Information â€“ average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)
Warwick 6f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)
7.40 is scheduled to have 17 runners
Prominent / chased leaders 0.95
Hold up / behind 0.55
Front runners have scored more three as often as they should over C&D. Bees River has the right pace profile having led in 4 of her last 5 starts and is also ideally drawn in 1 to attack. The other positive is jockey Richard Mullen has the best strike rate of all jockeys on front running sprinters â€“ hence he is a good judge of pace.
Horse Noted in Two or More Sections
Excellent Thought (7:10Â Warwick) â€“ Sire Stats and Trainer Stat
Bees River (7.40 Warwick) â€“ Pace and Draw