Racing Trends: Day 3 Update / Day 4 Sample

Racing Trends - Day 3 Update 14th June 2009

Comments

From the “Positive Stats” section there was 1 winner, 2 non-runners and a couple of near misses. The top-rated in the “Sample Rated Race” was second.

Positive Stats (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Brisbane (2:55 Doncaster – must be in the top 3 in the betting – 7th 4/1

Eton Rifles (3:30 Doncaster) Positive sire stats – NR

Interdiamonds (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – 2nd 3/1

Racing Hero (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – Won 7/2

Penolva (4:35 Doncaster) Strong Sire Stats – NR

Jachol (4:45 Salisbury) – 2nd 11/2

Negative Stats

None identified.

Sample Rated Race

5.10 Doncaster (Long distance)

Isabelonabicycle 105 – 2nd 9/4
Miss Keck 105 – NR
Forrest Flyer 103 – 8th 6/1
Rose Bien 102 – 5th 4/1
Sir Sandicliffe 102 – 6th 6/1
Monte Pattino 101 – NR
Fistral 101 – 7th 7/1

Day 4 Sample - 15th June 2009

As Matt has arranged with Racing Trends that geegeez blog readers can avail themselves of a month’s free trial, then from today until the end of the review period (21st June) I will include the majority of information contained within the Racing Trends daily mail(s).

Draw Section

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 12 runners declared. Lowest two draws and hence the best drawn are Kelamon (drawn 1) and Den’s Gift (drawn 2).

Warwick 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 73.3%

Middle third of the draw 26.7%

Top third of the draw 0%

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Conclusion - Low draws seem to have a huge advantage, with high draws having a dreadful time. However, it should be noted that there were only 15 qualifying races during the 4-year period so it is small sample to be fully confident in.

7.40 Warwick – has 17 runners declared. The best drawn are Bees River (drawn 1), Milly Rose (drawn 2), Top Flight Splash (drawn 3), Peninsula Girl (drawn 4)

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. A qualifying race today is the 3.15 Carlisle.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Darcy's Pride (3:45 Carlisle) D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd favourite (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

April Fool (6:00 Windsor) Positive Sire Stats on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

There are 6 horses noted in the same race – looks a potentially tight knit maiden

Totally Invincible (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Deal (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) must be in the top 4 in the betting - SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%

Satin Princess (7:10 Warwick) Strong Sire Stats SR 22.5%; ROI +35%

Exceed Power (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80%

Aalsmeer (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Warwick 6f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

7.40 is scheduled to have 17 runners

Leaders 3.3

Prominent / chased leaders 0.95

Hold up / behind 0.55

Front runners have scored more three as often as they should over C&D. Bees River has the right pace profile having led in 4 of her last 5 starts and is also ideally drawn in 1 to attack. The other positive is jockey Richard Mullen has the best strike rate of all jockeys on front running sprinters – hence he is a good judge of pace.

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) – Sire Stats and Trainer Stat

Bees River (7.40 Warwick) – Pace and Draw