Racing Trends: Day 4 Update / Day 5 Information

Racing Trends - Day 4 Update 15th June 2009

Comments

Overall not a very profitable day due to seconditus, however I would just like to reiterate that this is not a pure tipping service. There is no suggestion that all noted horses should be backed. The information should be used to guide you in examining races that may provide particular value from a betting and hopefully winning perspective. Matt has arranged a month’s free trial with Racing Trends and I would urge all readers to avail themselves of this.

From the “Draw Section” very unlucky in the Warwick 21:10 as Den’s Gift was 2nd, beaten a nose. However, in the Warwick 19:40 the lowest drawn horses were trounced with the highest drawn, Sarasota Sunshine (drawn 15) Won 5/1F with the second highest drawn, Itsher (drawn 13) second 6/1.

Again, unlucky in the race identified in the “Market Information” section as the qualifying horse, Captain Jacksparra was beaten a short head.

In the “Positive Stats” section 6 horses (only 5 ran) were identified for 19.10 at Warwick with the 2 highest drawn Deal (drawn 10) winning and Aalsmeer (drawn 9) coming second.

Finally, from the “Pace Information” section a disappointing showing from Bees River which was 8th 10/1.

Draw Section

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 12 runners declared. Lowest two draws and hence the best drawn are Kelamon (drawn 1) - NR and Den’s Gift (drawn 2) – 2nd 11/4F (beaten a nose).

Warwick 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 73.3%

Middle third of the draw 26.7%

Top third of the draw 0%

Conclusion - Low draws seem to have a huge advantage, with high draws having a dreadful time. However, it should be noted that there were only 15 qualifying races during the 4-year period so it is small sample to be fully confident in.

7.40 Warwick – has 17 runners declared. The best drawn are Bees River (drawn 1) – 8th 10/1, Milly Rose (drawn 2) – 13th 20/1, Top Flight Splash (drawn 3) – 7th 10/1, Peninsula Girl (drawn 4) – 6th 16/1

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. A qualifying race today is the 3.15 Carlisle. Captain Jacksparra (2nd in the weights) 2nd 7/2JF (beaten a short head)

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Darcy's Pride (3:45 Carlisle) D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd favourite (ideally 21 days or less) SR 32.5% ROI +53.4% - 10th 16/1

April Fool (6:00 Windsor) Positive Sire Stats on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% - 9th 8/1

There are 6 horses noted in the same race – looks a potentially tight knit maiden

Totally Invincible (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - 4th 33/1

Deal (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - Won 16/1

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) must be in the top 4 in the betting - SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% - 5th 8/1

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80% - 5th 8/1

Satin Princess (7:10 Warwick) Strong Sire Stats SR 22.5%; ROI +35% - 8th 66/1

Exceed Power (7:10 Warwick) Positive Sire Stats - SR 21% ROI +80% - NR

Aalsmeer (7:10 Warwick) Sire Stats - SR 18% ROI +13% - 2nd 8/11F

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Warwick 6f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

7.40 is scheduled to have 17 runners

Leaders 3.3

Prominent / chased leaders 0.95

Hold up / behind 0.55

Front runners have scored more three as often as they should over C&D. Bees River has the right pace profile having led in 4 of her last 5 starts and is also ideally drawn in 1 to attack. The other positive is jockey Richard Mullen has the best strike rate of all jockeys on front running sprinters – hence he is a good judge of pace.

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Excellent Thought (7:10 Warwick) – Sire Stats and Trainer Stat - 5th 8/1

Bees River (7.40 Warwick) – Pace and Draw – 8th 10/1

Day 5 Information - 16th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f - 1m – The straight course at Ascot sees races from 5f through to 1m. In very big fields you occasionally see one side of the course favoured although it can be difficult to predict. A good example of a race where a draw bias existed was the Cisco Hong Kong Sprint Stakes over 5f run on 27th July 2008. The 26 runner race saw high draws totally dominating with Tom Laughter (drawn 23) winning at the tasty odds of 50/1. The next four horses home were drawn 27, 28, 25 and 26 (2 non runners). Likewise the big sprint of the year at Ascot (the Wokingham) showed a similar bias the previous year (23rd June ‘07) where the first four horses home all raced far side and were drawn 27, 23, 22 and 20 (26 ran / 2 non runners).

There have been examples of low draw bias as well as was shown in the Royal hunt Cup in 2008 (18th June) when the 29 runner race saw the first four home drawn 4, 1, 5 and 6.

There are of course several occasions when there appears no advantage to one side as was the case in the Wokingham in 2008 (21st June) when the first six horses home were drawn 28, 2, 23, 6, 5, and 26. Having said that middle draws seemed at a big disadvantage that day.

In medium sized fields, low draws occasionally hold the whip hand as was the case in the 17 runner Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6f (21st June ‘08). The first four horses home drawn 3, 1, 4 and 2.

Traditionally on soft or heavy ground there used to be a very strong high draw bias on the straight courses, especially in big fields. However, since the course has reopened in 2006 there have been only a handful of races on such going and hence it is difficult to make any assumptions at this point.

It will be interesting to see how the draw pans out at this meeting.

Thirsk 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 20%

Middle third of the draw 16.7%

Top third of the draw 63.3%

Therefore horses from the top third have a decent edge. Having said that, in big fields when they split there is sometimes not much in it. I would focus on the four lowest and the four highest draws in the 5.45 (20 runners declared).

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Aqlaam** (2:30 Ascot) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Jutland (2:50 Thirsk) M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6%

Raine's Cross (4:20 Ascot) Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7%

Stand And Fight (5:30 Ascot) - Sire stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13%;

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Half A Crown** (5:45 Thirsk) - D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

Camera Shy* (6:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Orsippus (6:30 Yarmouth) M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 24% ROI +20%

Your first 30 days for just £1

Poppy N'penny** (7:00 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Wasmi (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Drift And Dream (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80%

Victorian Art** (7:00 Yarmouth) M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%

Magnitude* (8:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Sea Cliff** (8:15 Newton Abbot) J O' Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 price 8/1 or shorter - SR 25% win & pl 53% ROI +20%

Baron Otto** (8:30 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%.

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Thirsk 5f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

5.45 Thirsk is scheduled to have 20 runners

Leaders 2.6

Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have scored 2.6 times as often as they should over C&D. The best pace looks low with Malapropism and Orpen’s Art both likely to force the pace from the low draws. If low draws are competitive then Malapropism has good each way claims, and good potential for backing first and laying off in running.

Conflicting Stats – horses that have one positive and one negative stat

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot)

Royal Ascot

3.05 Ascot – first leg of the Global sprint Challenge

Dave Renham, wearing his old Drawn2win hat (a service I remember well), occasionally provides a race analysis of some decent sprint races. Dave has analysed all the runners and provided a commentary on them which I have excluded.

Conclusion – a tough call this, especially as we are unsure whether the draw will have any major bearing on the race. Amour Propre just gets the nod for me over Scenic Blast.

For the bigger price players, Dandy Man’s record in the race means the early 38s on Betfair is tempting for a few shekels; likewise last year’s winner Equiano at around 20s is in the same boat.

Key Trends

3.45 Ascot– St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo

Positive Trends

Favourites: There have been 9 winning favourites from 20 for a small profit of 4.3 pts (ROI +21.5%).

Market: The top 4 in the betting have provided 17 of the last 20 winners (18 of the last 20 winners priced 9/1 or shorter).

Position LTO: 10 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Last race: In the last 12 renewals 6 of the winners had raced in both the English and the Irish Guineas.

Proven class: 8 of the last 14 winners had previously won a Group 1 race. Also the last 15 winners raced in a Group 1 race on their most recent start.

Trainers: Aidan O’ Brien has had 5 winners, 3 seconds and 4 thirds from 24 runners. Indeed he had the 1-2-3 in 2007 and the winner in 2008.

Negative Trends

Price: There have been just 1 win from 74 qualifiers for horses priced 12/1 or bigger.

Trends Summary: The market is an excellent guide with 9 winning favourites and 18 of the last 20 winners being priced in single figures. This race is often a race for horses with proven form in Group 1 races. Finally, runners from Aidan O’ Brien’s stable are definitely worth close examination thanks to his excellent record in the race.

Conclusion - There is a clear trends pick in Masterofthehouse. Looks likely to be short enough at Evens though.

4.20 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo

Positive Trends

Favourites (inc. joints): 10 wins from 25 for a profit of 11.1 pts (ROI +44.6%).

Price: 18 of the last 20 winners were single figure prices.

Position LTO: 19 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Breeding: US breds are worth noting with 8 winners in the last 17 races. In those 17 races they have provided 47% of the winners from only 22% of the total runners.

Trainers: Irish stables have a good record in this race with 6 wins from just 23 runners for a profit of 35.1 pts (ROI +152.7%).

Negative Trends

Price: There has been just 2 win from 207 qualifiers for horses priced 10/1 or bigger. Backing all qualifiers would have yielded a loss of 169 pts (ROI – 81.6%).

Fitness: Horses returning to the track within 15 days of their last run have seen 65 consecutive losers going back 17 years.

Maidens: 61 maidens have lined up – all have been beaten and only 3 have been placed (all third).

Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, but essentially this is still the target for many of the best 2yo sprinters. Hence, age-old trends are likely to be worth following. One very strong stat worth noting is that 19 of the last 20 winners won LTO. It is also a market driven race with favourites having an excellent record, and 128 of the 20 winners being priced in single figures. Irish raiders have an excellent record and deserve great respect. American bred horses do well and although they did not win in ’08 they had the 2nd and 3rd.

Conclusion - Red Jazz and No Hubris are two American bred sprinters worth considering from a trends perspective (won LTO and right price bracket too). Canford Cliffs the likely favourite though is respected and he ran a huge speed figure on debut at Newbury

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