Racing Trends: Day 5 Update / Day 6 Information

Racing Trends - Day 5 Update 16th June 2009

Comments

Not a great deal to comment on. The high drawn horses maintained their success in the Thirsk 5f handicap (17.45) with M.Dod’s two horses going off at 5/1JF and filling the first 2 places drawn 19 and 15 respectively. The conclusions for the 3 Royal Ascot races did mention the winners.

Draw Section

Thirsk 5f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 5f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 20%

Middle third of the draw 16.7%

Top third of the draw 63.3%

Therefore horses from the top third have a decent edge. Having said that, in big fields when they split there is sometimes not much in it. I would focus on the four lowest and the four highest draws in the 5.45 (20 runners declared) – Twosheetstothewind (drawn 19) Won 5/1JF

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Aqlaam** (2:30 Ascot) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 3rd 10/1 (Non qualifier as went off 5th in the betting).

Jutland (2:50 Thirsk) M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6% – NR

Raine's Cross (4:20 Ascot) Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7% – 12th 16/1

Stand And Fight (5:30 Ascot) - Sire stats - Invincible Spirit - 2yo turf non handicaps over 5f SR 18% ROI +13% – 14th 16/1

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – 16th 16/1

Half A Crown** (5:45 Thirsk) - D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4% – 9th 25/1

Camera Shy* (6:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% – Won 11/4

Orsippus (6:30 Yarmouth) M Channon 3yo only sellers SR 24% ROI +20% – 14th 5/2F

Poppy N'penny** (7:00 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 3rd 16/1

Wasmi (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – 4th 20/1

Drift And Dream (7:00 Yarmouth) Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +80% – Won 9/1

Victorian Art** (7:00 Yarmouth) M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48% – 5th 7/4F

Magnitude* (8:00 Yarmouth) Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35% – 5th 9/1

Sea Cliff** (8:15 Newton Abbot) J O' Neill handicap hurdles aged 4 to 7 price 8/1 or shorter - SR 25% win & pl 53% ROI +20% – 4th 6/1

Baron Otto** (8:30 Yarmouth) W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9% – 12th 12/1

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner –The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners are a strike rate (SR) of 16.3% and losses are -16.7%

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Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) - Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46% – 16th 16/1

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Thirsk 5f (figures based on 10+ runner handicaps)

5.45 Thirsk is scheduled to have 20 runners

Leaders 2.6

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Prominent / chased leaders 1.0

Hold up / behind 0.5

Front runners have scored 2.6 times as often as they should over C&D. The best pace looks low with Malapropism – 16th 16/1 and Orpen’s Art – 11th 25/1 both likely to force the pace from the low draws. If low draws are competitive then Malapropism has good each way claims, and good potential for backing first and laying off in running.

Conflicting Stats – horses that have one positive and one negative stat.

Itsthursdayalready (5:30 Ascot) – 16th 16/1

Royal Ascot

3.05 Ascot – first leg of the Global sprint Challenge

Dave Renham, wearing his old Drawn2win hat (a service I remember well), occasionally provides a race analysis of some decent sprint races. Dave has analysed all the runners and provided a commentary on them which I have excluded.

Conclusion – a tough call this, especially as we are unsure whether the draw will have any major bearing on the race. Amour Propre – 10th 4/1 just gets the nod for me over Scenic Blast – Won 11/4F

For the bigger price players, Dandy Man’s – 7th 20/1 record in the race means the early 38s on Betfair is tempting for a few shekels; likewise last year’s winner Equiano – 8th 14/1 at around 20s is in the same boat.

Key Trends

3.45 Ascot– St James’ Palace Stakes (1 mile – Group 1) 3yo

Conclusion - There is a clear trends pick in Mastercraftsman – Won 5/6F Looks likely to be short enough at Evens though.

4.20 Ascot – Coventry Stakes (6 furlongs – Group 2) 2yo

Conclusion - Red Jazz – 7th 11/2 and No Hubris – 6th 11/2 are two American bred sprinters worth considering from a trends perspective (won LTO and right price bracket too). Canford Cliffs – Won 7/4F the likely favourite though is respected and he ran a huge speed figure on debut at Newbury.

Day 6 Information - 17th June 2009

Value Horses – horses that have key stats that backing such runners in the last 9 years would have shown good profits in the long term:

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton)

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – The straight course at Ascot sees races from 5f through to 1m. In very big fields you occasionally see one side of the course favoured although it can be difficult to predict. A good example of a race where a draw bias existed was the Cisco Hong Kong Sprint Stakes over 5f run on 27th July 2008. The 26 runner race saw high draws totally dominating with Tom Laughter (drawn 23) winning at the tasty odds of 50/1. The next four horses home were drawn 27, 28, 25 and 26 (2 non runners). Likewise the big sprint of the year at Ascot (the Wokingham) showed a similar bias the previous year (23rd June ‘07) where the first four horses home all raced far side and were drawn 27, 23, 22 and 20 (26 ran / 2 non runners).

There have been examples of low draw bias as well as was shown in the Royal hunt Cup in 2008 (18th June) when the 29 runner race saw the first four home drawn 4, 1, 5 and 6.

There are of course several occasions when there appears no advantage to one side as was the case in the Wokingham in 2008 (21st June) when the first six horses home were drawn 28, 2, 23, 6, 5, and 26. Having said that middle draws seemed at a big disadvantage that day.

In medium sized fields, low draws occasionally hold the whip hand as was the case in the 17 runner Golden Jubilee Stakes over 6f (21st June ‘08). The first four horses home drawn 3, 1, 4 and 2.

Traditionally on soft or heavy ground there used to be a very strong high draw bias on the straight courses, especially in big fields. However, since the course has reopened in 2006 there have been only a handful of races on such going and hence it is difficult to make any assumptions at this point.

Looking at day 1 I reckon the ground is slightly quicker near the stands’ rail than the middle. Hence in medium sized field I’d prefer a lower draw over a higher one. The big 1m handicap Royal Hunt Cup (4.20) will see the horses stretch across the track. Difficult to know how quick the ground will be over the far side (high). Essentially I will be looking at the top 4 or 5 stalls and the bottom 4 or 5 stalls, with a slight preference to low.

Kempton 6f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 6f the draw splits are currently (2006 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 27.7%

Middle third of the draw 25.4%

Top third of the draw 46.9%

8.10 Kempton is a qualifying race.

Conclusion - the top third of the draw have a definite edge.

Well drawn horses – Mac’s Power (drawn 12), Red Rossini (drawn 11), Doc Jones (drawn 10), Satwa Street (drawn 9)

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats If they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

As usual I have decided to list the races where the above stat qualifies – then if any of those races the favourite is in the top four of the weights then he/she would qualify:

4.10 Hamilton

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel - Pivotal sire system 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure; SR 20% ROI +32%

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot – Heaven Sent* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot – Chantilly Tiffany* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot – Virtual* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.10 Hamilton – Brut** - D Barker; 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav; SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

4.20 Ascot – Dunn'o** - C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

4.20 Ascot – Luisant* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot – Mia's Boy* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot – Axiom* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.45 Hamilton – Istiqdaam* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.55 Ascot – Ceedwell - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

4.55 Ascot – Lady Royal Oak - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

4.55 Ascot – Itwasonlyakiss - Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +85%

5.30 Ascot – Moneycantbuymelove* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.50 Hamilton – Piverina* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6.40 Kempton – Celtic Lass - M Jarvis and N Callan - 3yos in maidens SR 29.9% ROI +91%

6.40 Kempton – Opera Wings - Sir Michael Stoute - 3yos in maiden races off track for 6 months+ SR 32% ROI +20%

7.10 Kempton – Spiritual Treasure** - M Magnusson - all runners top 3 in betting SR 29% ROI +48%

7.20 Ripon – Farmer Giles** - M Bell 2yo maidens in May / June that have already run + top 4 of betting – SR 35.8%; ROI +39.8%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ascot 1m (figures based on 20+ runner handicaps)

4.20 Ascot is scheduled to have 31 runners

Leaders 0.5

Prominent / chased leaders 0.65

Hold up / behind 1.35

Hold up horses have the edge which is no surprise as a straight mile is one of the hardest races to win from the front / close to the pace. Two horses drawn low are genuine hold up horses so will have the race run to suit – Docofthebay (drawn 3), Mia’s Boy (drawn 4).

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

Mia’s Boy (4.20 Ascot) – Pace + Sire Stats (going dependent to match the sire stat)

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton) – Value horses + Draw

Royal Ascot

Two races that I look back at the trends and stats for the past 20 years:

4.20 Ascot - The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap)

Positive Trends

Recent win: Horses that have won at least one race in their last six have won 19 of the 20 races.

Age: Horses aged 4 or 5 have won 18 of the last 20 races.

Market: Second favourites have performed well with 4 wins from 20 runners for a profit of 16.5 pts (ROI +82.5%).

Draw: Horses drawn closest to either rail have had the advantage. 13 of the last 20 winners were drawn either in the top five stalls or the bottom six stalls.

Negative Trends

Age: Horses aged 6 or older have won just 2 races from 137 qualifiers (SR 1.5%) for a loss of 94 pts (ROI -68.6%).

Fitness: Horses that had been off the track for 15 days or less have won 4 races from 183 qualifiers for a loss of 93 pts (ROI -50.8%).

Weight: Horses in the top 4 of the weights (inc. joints) have provided 1 win from 85 runners.

Price: Horses priced 33/1 or bigger have won 2 races from 267 qualifiers for a loss of 182 pts (ROI -68.2%). Only 16 other runners managed to get placed. The last winner at such a price was way back in 1990.

Penalty carriers: 65 horses have run carrying a penalty for their last run, and just 1 has won (Macadamia in 2003).

Course LTO: 77 horses ran at Epsom LTO and they have produced just 1 winner (last year’s winner Mr Aviator broke a very long losing sequence).

General Stats

Favourites (inc. joints): 2 wins from 22 for a loss of 7 pts (ROI -31.9%). A further 5 favourites have been placed.

Trends Summary: 4 and 5 year olds have tended to dominate this race, but although they have won 90% of the races they have provided 75% of the total runners. Best positive trend is horses that have proven winning form in the last six races – they have provided 95% of the winners from 67% of the total runners. The draw has been a major factor as well with very high and very low numbers performing best. However, this is a race where the negative trends dominate and these should be used in an attempt to narrow down the field. Horses to avoid include 6 year olds or older, penalty carriers, top 4 in the weights and any horse priced 33/1 or bigger. Using these trends should help you narrow down the field to a much more manageable size.

Interestingly there is clear trends pick and that is the likely favourite Forgotten Voice.


4.55 Ascot – Queen Mary (5f – Group 2) 2yo

Positive Trends

Favourites (inc. joints): 7 wins from 21 for a profit of 5 pts (ROI +23.9%).

Market: 15 of the last 20 winners came from the top four in the betting.

Price: 14 of the last 20 winners were priced in single figures.

Position LTO: 16 of the last 20 winners won LTO.

Distance winners: 16 of the last 20 winners had previously won over 5f.

Topspeed: Racing Post’s speed ratings Topspeed has secured 6 wins in the last 16 renewals from his top rated runner. Backing all top rated runners during this period would have produced a profit of 9.5 pts (ROI +52.8%).

Negative Trends

Price: There has been just 1 wins from 131 qualifiers for horses priced 25/1 or bigger.

Trends Summary: This race was upgraded to Group 2 status in 2004, but essentially this is still the first big sprint target for 2yo fillies. Last time out winners have produced 80% of the winners so this seems a starting point. Favourites and the top four in the betting have a good record and they should be the next focus. The top rated runner from Topspeed have a good record so these runners deserve respect.

Whoever starts favourite out of Rose Blossom and Don’t Tell Mary would be the pick. Meanwhile Lady of the Desert is next best trends wise.

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