Racing Trends: Day 6 Update / Day 7 Information

Racing Trends - Day 6 Update 17th June 2009

Comments

The identified Value Horse (Mac’s Power) Won 5/1 and the clear trends pick for the Royal Hunt Cup (Forgotten Voice) Won 4/1F were the highlights of the day when there was so much information to digest. There were also a couple of winners identified in the “Positive Stats” section namely, Piverina Won 5/1 and Farmer Giles Won 5/4F.

The Racing Trends service does supply a lot of information so I would suggest that the key to using the Racing Trends service successfully is being very selective in the races that you select to have a punt on,

Draw Section

The 8.10 Kempton (6f) was identified as a qualifying race where there was an identified trends bias that favoured horses in the top third of the draw.

Well drawn horses – Mac’s Power (drawn 12) – Won 5/1, Red Rossini (drawn 11) – WD 11/1, Doc Jones (drawn 10) – 10th 10/1, Satwa Street (drawn 9) – 5th 8/1

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

4.10 Hamilton – favourite and top weight was Northern Empire (5/2F) which dead-heated for second place.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

2.30 Ascot – Ocean's Minstrel – 15th 10/1

3.05 Ascot – Heaven Sent – 2nd 5/2

3.05 Ascot – Chantilly Tiffany– 4th 28/1

3.45 Ascot – Virtual – 6th 14/1

4.10 Hamilton – Brut – 5th 4/1 (Non qualifier as went off 3rd favourite).

4.20 Ascot – Dunn'o – 14th 14/1

4.20 Ascot – Luisant – 22nd 80/1

4.20 Ascot – Mia's Boy – 3rd 9/1

4.20 Ascot – Axiom – 6th 16/1

4.45 Hamilton – Istiqdaam – 4th 16/1

4.55 Ascot – Ceedwell– 3rd 12/1

4.55 Ascot – Lady Royal Oak– 13th 33/1

4.55 Ascot – Itwasonlyakiss – 12th 40/1

5.30 Ascot – Moneycantbuymelove – Won 9/2F

5.50 Hamilton – Piverina – Won 5/1

6.40 Kempton – Celtic Lass – 6th 10/1

6.40 Kempton – Opera Wings – NR

7.10 Kempton – Spiritual Treasure – 7th 13/2

7.20 Ripon – Farmer Giles – Won 5/4F

Pace Information

4.20 Ascot (1m) was identified.

Hold up horses have the edge which is no surprise as a straight mile is one of the hardest races to win from the front / close to the pace. Two horses drawn low are genuine hold up horses so will have the race run to suit – Docofthebay (drawn 3) – WD 14/1, Mia’s Boy (drawn 4) – 3rd 9/1.

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

Mia’s Boy (4.20 Ascot) – Pace + Sire Stats (going dependent to match the sire stat) – 3rd 9/1

Mac’s Power (8.10 Kempton) – Value horses + Draw) – Won 5/1

Royal Ascot

4.20 Ascot - The Royal Hunt Cup (1 mile all age handicap)

A clear trends pick was identified, Forgotten Voice – Won 4/1F

4.55 Ascot – Queen Mary (5f – Group 2) 2yo

The conclusion was that that whoever started as favourite out of Rose Blossom – 7th 5/1 and Don’t Tell Mary – 10th 11/2 would be the pick. Meanwhile Lady of the Desert – 6th 11/2 is next best trends wise. The actual favourite at the off was Capercaillie, 4/1F which finished 4th.

Day 7 Information - 18th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – it is clear that days 1 and 2 have seen better ground near the stands’ rail low. I did say I had a preference for very low draws for Wednesday and they certainly held sway in the last 3 races – a gold mine for anyone who permed some of the lowest draws in forecasts and tricasts.

We have to assume that low will hold sway again on Thursday – interesting the big mile handicap (4.20) has some big priced runners drawn very low. Would be nice if the bias is strong enough to see the bottom four or five stalls fill the first two or three places!

4.20 Ascot – potentially best drawn horses (lowest 5) are River Captain, Satwa Laird, Cannwin, Tarzan and Brief Encounter.

Warwick 7f - In handicap races of the 10 or more runners over 7f the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 45.5%

Middle third of the draw 22.7%

Top third of the draw 31.8%

Conclusion - Low draws have an advantage. The bottom 2 draws have provided 33% of the winners.

9.10 Warwick – has 14 runners declared. Best drawn are Turkish Locum (drawn 1), Diego Riveria (drawn 2), Highgate Cat (drawn 3) and Flute Magic (drawn 4).

Ripon 1 mile - In handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 12.5%

Middle third of the draw 18.8%

Top third of the draw 68.8%

It seems from the stats that horses from the top third have a very significant edge. However, it should be noted that there have only been 16 handicap races of 10 or more runners in the past four years which is a small sample. Having said that, traditionally high draws over this distance do have a decent edge.

5.40 Ripon – has 20 runners. Best to concentrate on the top six draws – Mr Fantozzi (drawn 20), Montiboli (drawn 19), Byron Way (drawn 18), Josephine Malines (drawn 17), Direct Debit (drawn 16) and Baltimore Jack (drawn 15).

Market Information (2000-2008)

Your first 30 days for just £1

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%.

3.20 Warwick is identified as a qualifying race.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

Note: – there are several occasions when there are multiple runners noted in the same race.

2:30 Ascot Nosedive** - W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

2:45 Ripon Requisite* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot Leocorno* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.05 Ascot Take The Hint - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

3.05 Ascot Mooakada - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

3.20 Ripon Turnkey - D Nicholls - 5/6f claimers - off track between 8 and 28 days SR 32.2%; ROI +91%

3.20 Ripon Turnkey* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.10 Warwick Ensnare* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot Aurorian** - R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

4.55 Ascot Freemantle - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke - Strong Sire Stats - Hernando 3yos at 12f+ on turf SR 23% ROI +72%

5.20 Warwick Magnitude* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.30 Ascot Topolski - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Topolski - M Johnston when running a horse sired by Peintre Celebre SR 30.4% ROI +64%; 11 of his 13 different runners have won at least once

5.30 Ascot Quai D'Orsay - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot  Kimberley Downs - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Fin Vin de Leu - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Takaatuf - M Johnston - 3yos running in handicaps of 1m4f + in 3yo only races SR 18% ROI +14%

5.30 Ascot Johann Zoffany - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

5.30 Ascot Highland Glen - Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

5.40 Ripon Crux* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.40 Ripon Cross of Lorraine* - Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

6.30 Musselburgh Lord's Seat** - A Berry at Musselburgh - 2yo maidens top 2 in the betting SR 62.5% (10 from 16) ROI +117.5%

6.40 Leicester The Caped Crusader - Cape Cross male 2yos all races not debut SR 22.4% ROI +42.7%

6.40 Leicester The Mighty Mod - M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f SR 23.2%; ROI +28.6%

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux** - W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux - W Haggas June to October - 2 and 3yos off track for more than 6 weeks SR 24% ROI +55.4%

8.30 Musselburgh Inheritor** - B Smart at Musselburgh - 2yo/3yos in handicaps 12/1 or shorter SR 34.6% ROI +155.8%

8.40 Leicester Penolva - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

8.40 Leicester Galiotto - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

8.40 Leicester Canton Road - Strong Sire Stats - Galileo 3yos over 10f-12f SR 19.3% ROI +11.3%

Pace Information – average figure for each group should be 1.0 (based on 10+ runner handicaps)

Ascot 1m (figures based on 20+ runner handicaps)

4.20 Ascot is scheduled to have 30 runners

Leaders 0.5

Prominent / chased leaders 0.65

Hold up / behind 1.35

Hold up horses have the edge as I said yesterday although the winner of Hunt Cup did actually race close up. Having said that he was probably a Group horse in a handicap and the next seven horses home were held up. Satwa Laird (drawn 3) looks well drawn and is a genuine hold up horse.

Horses Noted in Two or More Sections

3.20 Ripon Turnkey – Trainer and Sire Stat (needs to be soft/heavy to perfectly match sire stat)

4.20 Ascot Satwa Laird – Draw and Pace

5.10 Ripon Alanbrooke – Sire Stat and Trainer stat

5.30 Ascot Topolski – Sire Stat and Trainer Stat

8.00 Musselburgh Storming Sioux – 2 different Trainer Stats (needs to be top 4 of the betting to match one of the two stats)

Royal Ascot

15.45 Ascot - Gold Cup (2½ miles – Group 1)

Trends wise Geordieland would be a good fit but for his age. I think this is a race to swerve trends wise.

4.20 Ascot – Britannia Stakes (1 mile – handicap) 3yo

The shortlist trends wise is Desert Creek, Roman Republic, Brief Encounter and Invisible Man. Taking the draw into account which I think we must, Brief Encounter looks the one.

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