Racing Trends: Day 7 Update / Day 8 Information

Racing Trends - Day 7 Update 18th June 2009

Comments

From the “Draw” section only Montiboli – Won 7/1 (second highest drawn in the 17.40 at Ripon) delivered. The majority of the remaining horses from the three highlighted races were well beaten. In the “Positive Market Stats” section, Mutamared (11/10F) finished last. The “Positive Stats” section identified 28 horses of which Requisite – Won 14/1 and Turnkey Won 4/1 delivered. Crux (3rd 25/1) and Canton Road (2nd 10/1) delivered some value to E/W backers.

Day 8 Information - 19th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – there seemed less in the draw yesterday, but in the 29 runner 7f handicap at 5.30 I would still concentrate on the bottom 5 or 6 stalls and to a lesser extent the top four or five.

Ayr (1 mile) in handicaps races of the 10 or more runners over 1m the draw splits are currently (2005 to 2008):

Bottom third of the draw 50%

Middle third of the draw 28.1%

Top third of the draw 21.9%

Low draws have the call.

6.10 Ayr – 12 runners declared – best drawn horses drawn 1 - 4 are Scottys Future, Phantom Seranade, Rain Stops Play and Time to Regret.

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. The 4.30 Redcar is identified as a qualifying race.

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

3.05 Ascot South Easter** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

3.30 Musselburgh Ask Dan** B Smart at Musselburgh - 2yo/3yos in handicaps 12/1 or shorter SR 34.6% ROI +155.8%

4.20 Ascot Stone of Scone* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.20 Ascot Pinpoint* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

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4.20 Ascot Kingdom of Fife Sir Michael Stoute - male 4yos in 4yo+ handicaps SR 35.9% ROI +143%

4.20 Ascot Perfect Stride Sir Michael Stoute - male 4yos in 4yo+ handicaps SR 35.9% ROI +143%

4.55 Ascot Popmurphy Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

4.55 Ascot Stately Home Strong Sire Stats - Monjeu 3yos June onwards over 11f+ SR 20.7% ROI +19.7%

5.05 Redcar King Pin* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.20 Musselburgh Brut** D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

5.30 Ascot Six of Hearts* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.40 Redcar Half A Crown** D Barker - 5f aged 3 or older; 1st/2nd fav SR 32.5% ROI +53.4%

6.50 Goodwood Kapsiliat** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

7.25 Goodwood Jessica Hayllar** M Bell 2yo maidens in May / June that have already run + top 4 of betting – SR 35.8%; ROI +39.8%

8.10 Newmarket Transcend** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% (101 wins from 403) ROI +28.4%

8.10 Newmarket Transcend John Gosden - male runners coming back after a break of 100+ days; sr 22.7%; roi +22.7%;

8.10 Newmarket Countdown* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

8.40 Newmarket Time Machine** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% (101 wins from 403) ROI +28.4%

8.40 Newmarket Charger** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

8.40 Newmarket Cotillion** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

8.50 Ayr Stellite* Positive Sire Stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

Negative Trainer Stats

14:10 Redcar Fol Wizard Poor Sire Stat - Piccolo 2yos over 7f+ SR 2% ROI loss -89%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

3:05 Ascot South Easter Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

4:45 Musselburgh Shunkawakhan Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

5:30 Ascot Mister Hardy Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

6:00 Newmarket Focail Eile Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

8:50 Ayr Imprimis Tagula Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

Horse Noted in Two or More Sections

Transcend (8.10 Newmarket) – two separate trainer stats (needs to be top four in betting to match one of the two).


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