Racing Trends: Day 8 Update / Day 9 Information

Racing Trends - Day 8 Update 19th June 2009

Comments

No joy from the “Draw” section. In the “Positive Market Stats” section, Tufton (11/4F) finished third. The “Positive Stats” section identified 20 horses of which Stellite – Won 14/1, Perfect Stride – Won 8/1, Time Machine Won 6/1 and King Pin - Won 10/3F delivered. The “Negative Stats” section was spot on with all of the horses identified being well beaten.

Day 9 Information - 20th June 2009

Draw Section

Ascot 5f -1m – low draws were back in charge yesterday with draw 4 beating draw 2 in the 7f handicap yesterday. Forecast paid handsomely. I would concentrate again on low draws in the Wokingham (preference to bottom 7 stalls); however would not put off anyone having a saver on high.

Remaining races that have draw bias potential have quite small fields so away from Ascot there is not much to get excited about draw wise.

Market Information (2000-2008)

Positive Market Stats if they start favourite:

In June – on turf in claimers, when the favourite is in the top four of the weights they have a strike rate of 41% for a profit of 23%. The 4.45 Redcar is identified as a qualifying race

Positive Stats – (Trainer/Sire/Draw)

Please note – some are price** or going* dependent

2.10 Newmarket Bravo Echo** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

2.10 Newmarket Cyflymder** R Hannon - Favourite in 3yo only handicaps at 1m or less SR 39.6% ROI +66.4%

2.20 Redcar Pytheas M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f; SR23.2%; ROI +28.6%

2.30 Ascot Bikini Babe M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2.30 Ascot Shakespearean M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

2.30 Ascot Step In Time M Johnston - 2yos racing at 7f who raced at 7f or less LTO; top 4 in betting SR 29.1% ROI 21.9%

3.15 Newmarket Cosmopolitan** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

3.15 Newmarket Respite* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.30 Redcar Spinning* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot Regal Parade* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

3.45 Ascot King's Apostle** W Haggas in June - top 4 in the betting in non handicaps; SR 36.4% ROI +47.9%

3.50 Newmarket Green Beret** J Gosden - Newmarket top 4 in the betting all races SR 25.1% ROI +28.4%

4.20 Newmarket Boycott** J Gosden - 2yo maiden races at Newmarket; top 4 in the betting SR 28.2% ROI +49.6%

4.20 Newmarket Gold Diamond M Johnston - June to August 2yo maidens over 7f SR23.2%; ROI +28.6%

4.25 Ascot Jimmy Styles** C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

4.35 Ayr  Prospect Court* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

4.55 Newmarket Awesome Surprise** J Noseda in June/July 3yos in maidens top 3 of the betting SR 36.5%; ROI +26.7%

4.55 Newmarket Primaeval Pivotal sire system 8f or less; 5yo or younger; top 3 speed figure; SR 20% ROI +30%

4.55 Newmarket Primaeval* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

5.00 Ascot Dansili Dancer** C Cox with P Robinson riding - 4yos and older horses in handicaps top 6 in the betting SR 29.8% ROI +146.7%

5.20 Redcar Cardinal* Positive sire stats - Pivotal on soft or heavy SR 17.5% ROI +35%

7.05 Haydock Daisy Brown Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

7.05 Haydock Sparking Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

7.05 Haydock Pepper Lane Positive Sire Stats - Exceed and Excel 2yo SR 21% ROI +115%

Negative Trainer Stats

4:20 Newmarket Lanizza E Dunlop - POOR stat - 2yo males over 7f+ on debut SR 3% ROI loss -75.4%

7:20 Lingfield Jinksy Minx POOR sire stat - Piccolo 2yos over 7f+ SR 2% ROI loss -89%

Negative Stats

Poor Value Last Time Out Winner – this is a new section that I am currently developing and adding stats to. The idea is to find horses that won LTO that perform poorly in comparison to all LTO winners. The stats for all LTO winners is a strike rate (SR) is 16.3% and losses are -16.7%. This is my benchmark.

3.30 Redcar Spinning Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

4.45 Redcar Royal Dignitary Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Wolv/South; male; 15 days+ SR 8.3% ROI -44%

5.45 Ayr Toshi Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO at Chester drawn 1-6 SR 11% ROI loss -46%

7.35 Haydock Feelin Foxy Poor LTO 1st stat - won LTO 5f hand stepped up to 6f here (age 4 or more) SR 10.1% ROI loss -35.7%

Royal Ascot

Due To time constraints I have not been able to shortlist in the four races mentioned. Those of you who want to create your own shortlist the best way is to use the summaries for each race.

4.20 Ascot Wokingham Stakes (6f – handicap) 3yo+

Your first 30 days for just £1

N.B there was a dead heat in 2003 so we have 21 winners to consider.

Positive Trends

Price: 14 of the last 21 winners were priced between 10/1 and 20/1.

Position LTO: 16 of the last 21 winners finished in the first 4 LTO.

Distance LTO: Horses dropping down a furlong from running over 7f LTO have a good record with 8 wins from 85 qualifiers for a profit of 76 pts (ROI +89.4%).

Career wins:18 of the last 21 winners had won at least three times in their careers.

Negative Trends

Second favourites (inc. joints): 0 from 30.

Position LTO: Horses that finished 5th or worse LTO have provided 5 winners from 300 runners for a loss of 190 pts (ROI -63.3%).

Distance LTO: Horses stepping up from 5f LTO have a very poor record with just 1 win from 130 runners.

Last 6 runs: Horses that have failed to finish 1st or 2nd in at least one of their last six runs have provided 0 winners from 112.

General Stats

Favourites: 2 wins from 20 for a loss of 5 pts (ROI -25%).

Age: 3yos have won 0 races from 34 runners (SR 0%); 4yos have won 9 from 205 runners (SR 4.4%); 5yos have won 7 from 140 runners (SR 5%); 6yos have won 4 from 99 runners (SR 4%); 7yos+ have won 1 from 99 (SR 1%).

Trends Summary: One of the top handicap sprints of the year and with an average of around 27 runners it is not easy! Horses priced between 10/1 and 20/1 seem to offer the best value, assuming they have finished in the first four LTO. It is best to ignore horses that raced over 5f LTO, have not finished in the first two on at least one of their last six starts, and horses aged 7 or older. Using those five stats mentioned above would have found the winner in 60% of the races from only 18% of all runners. One final positive trend worth noting is the good record of horses dropping down from 7f LTO.

5.00 Ascot Duke of Edinburgh – (1 mile 4f – handicap) 3yo+

Positive Trends

Market: 11 of the last 20 winners came from the top 4 in the betting, although more importantly 10 of the last 13.

Position LTO: 13 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 LTO.

Distance winners: 14 of the last 20 winners had previously won at the distance.

Course LTO: Horses that raced at Newmarket LTO produced 6 winners from just 36 qualifiersfor a profit of 21.5 pts (ROI +59.7%).

Negative Trends

Fitness: Horses off the track for 7 or more weeks have produced just 1 winner from 44.

Class LTO: 28 horses have dropped in class and all have lost. Only two have been placed (both finished 4th).

Price: Horses priced 20/1 or bigger have produced just 2 winners from 151 for a loss of 96 pts (ROI -63.6%).

Sex: Fillies/mares have produced 1 winner from 38 for a loss of 27 pts (ROI -71.1%).

General Stats

Favourites: 2 wins from 22 for a loss of 11 pts (ROI -50%).

Age: 3yos have had only 3 runners who have all lost; 4yos have won 12 from 221 runners (SR 5.4%); 5yos have won 5 from 88 runners (SR 5.7%); 6yos+ have won 3 from 56 (SR 5.4%).

Trends Summary: The betting has been a good guide especially in the last few years and the winner is highly likely to come from the top 4 in the betting. With only 2 winners from 151 for horses priced 20/1 or bigger it is clear that several runners can be immediately discounted. Distance winners are around twice as likely to win than those who have not won over the distance and pay special attention to any horse that raced at Newmarket LTO.

2.05 Ascot – Hardwick Stakes (1m 4f– Group 2) 4yo+

Positive Trends

Position LTO: 16 of the last 20 winners finished in the first 3 LTO.

Career Wins: Horses with 3 or more career wins have won 14 of the last 20 races.

Career runs: Horses who have run 13 or more times in their careers have won 9 races from 41 qualifiers for a profit of 21.9 pts (ROI +53.3%).

Age: 5 year olds have an excellent record with 8 winners from 36 runners for a profit of 68 pts (ROI +189%).

Trainers: Mark Johnston has had 3 winners from just 10 runners.

Course winners: Course winners have a good record with8 wins from 37.

Negative Trends

Favourites (inc joints): 5 wins from 21 for a heavy loss of 10.8 pts (ROI -51.3%).

Trends Summary: The starting point should be horses that finished in the first 3 LTO and those who have won at least 3 races in their careers. From here take special note of 5 year olds, course winners and/or anything trained by Mark Johnston.

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