Fear and dread were the feelings that greeted me yesterday, dear reader, when I was presented with not one but two 'opportunities' to promote an upcoming horse racing system, called You Bet You Win.
Now I haven't seen the product, and I don't really care to. The reason for my high handedness? The spin and smarm that accompanies the utterly implausible sales page borders on preposterosity. (No, that isn't a word, but if I could add one term to the Oxford English, that would be it!)
Apparently, this guy has a 'secret' formula that makes your chances of losing on roulette an infinitessimal 1 in 177,000. But it gets better - he's going to give you that for free! This chap (Mikey Wilde) is an extremely slick marketer, but you can be confident that this is at best a confidence trick.
I've looked at the free download (and then hastily unsubscribed, which likely means he's selling my email address to anyone who'll buy it), and it's just awful.
Basically, of the 25 pages, there are three or four related to front page, disclaimer (very important in this case!), etc., and then about twelve pages dedicated to promoting four online casinos (all of whom will pay Mikey a kickback if you sign up, naturally), and then the system.
Now, firstly, I should say that there is nothing wrong with exchanging valuable information for an affiliate commission. Regular readers will know that when I review a product that I like (such as Favourites Phenomenon), I promote it as an affiliate. In fact, I sneakily snuck my affiliate link in there.
But this ebook adds no value. The system relies on a tenuous progressing staking plan that puts you $208 in the hole by the eleventh losing spin, in your quest to win... $2.
There is no reference to what you do if the 11th spin is a loser for you (as it might well be, given that each spin you're betting a 2/1 shot, even BEFORE you've factored in the 36/1 possibility of a zero being spun).
I presume the 1 in 177,000 chance of losing is by multiplying the odds of losing each time. But, as any stats buff will tell you (and, in fairness, most other people too), the chances of getting a winning spin are exactly the same from spin to spin. As are the chances of a losing spin. This is because each spin is independent of every other.
In short, this stinks, and you WILL go skint if you follow it. If the other systems (there are nine more, plus 'free' bonus content) are as 'good' as this one, you can expect lots more affiliate promotions from the author, and lots more dodgy maths, which will catch plenty of people out.
The only salvation is that it is marketed through clickbank, so you can get your money back if you write to them directly at email@example.com and quote your purchase reference number. This applies to any clickbank product, and is generally good information to have.
Enough on You Bet You Win... It's not good, and you should steer well clear.
Moving on, and the predicted change in Laying System's fortunes hit yesterday with aplomb. Two runners, two winners (and therefore losers for us). We are still comfortably in front on the month, and let's see what the rest of the week brings.
After Bavarica ran a good race yesterday, albeit finishing fifth in a horribly tactical race, I'm loathe - but honourbound - to tell you that today sees Night Orbit race again at Lingfield.
Orbit's a bit of a plodder, but he's in his right grade and is stepped up slightly in trip (as befits his plodding gait). Two pluses today though: all the others are plodders too, and we have a professional jockey aboard. I'm hopeful that Micky Fenton will get him near, but not on, the 'speed' (such as it will be in this race), and will try to kick him on early enough to grind the others down. He is a trier, and he is a grinder, so a tactical affair will do for him.
Fingers crossed, and money invested...
Finally, I'd like to add the congratulations of Geegeez to those of every other racing person in the UK, Ireland and probably the rest of the planet to Anthony McCoy, on reaching the landmark of his 3,000th winner.
I heard on attheraces today (though haven't verified it) that McCoy's closest pursuer in the most jumps winners department was Richard Dunwoody, who rode 1,700.
Just think about that for a second. McCoy, who may only be half way through his career, has ridden almost twice as many winners as any other jockey managed in their entire career. That IS bloody remarkable.
I am one of many people who would have no other jock on one of mine, if lucky enough to be given the choice. When you bet a horse with AP on, you just know it will be given every chance. When you lay one, you just know it could be a 'brown trousers' affair!
As long as he remains hungry (and you only have to see the look on his face when he gets beaten in a tight finish in a seller to know that he remains hungry!), he is the man they have to beat.
Chapeau, Monsieur McCoy. Chapeau!