Royal Ascot 2011 Day One Preview

Frankel goes for St James Palace Stakes glory

Frankel goes for St James Palace Stakes glory

We're all set for Day One of the Royal Ascot 2011 meeting, and Tuesday's racing may just be the pick of the whole week.

In the video below, I've gone through my fancies for the races, but if you don't have 45 minutes to listen to me rambling, then I've added my thoughts in text format summary underneath that.

'Note - to view this in full screen, click the little 'x' in the bottom right of the video box.'

2.30 Queen Anne Stakes

The opener is an absolutely Bobby Dazzler of a race, which has considerably more depth than 'just' Goldikova versus Canford Cliffs.

Flash Dance is a pacemaker, but the remaining sextet all have some sort of a chance. Rio De La Plata is a multi-Group One winner on the continent, but probably not up to this.

Cape Blanco likely wants further but has plenty of toe too. Ten furlongs is probably his best trip, however.

Cityscape is interesting at a bigger price. He was progressive last year, and will improve for his debut run. Ransom Note won the Britannia Stakes here at last year's Royal Ascot meeting from an unfavourable draw - and he could run better than 66/1 odds suggest.

Canford Cliffs wouldn't want ground softer than good, and he might be vulnerable if there's any give, whereas Goldi will act on any ground, stays nine furlongs, and has won 13 Group One races! She is a six year old now and at some point that age factor must become material. Possibly not yet though.

It's exactas for me here, with Goldikova or Canford Cliffs to win, and Cape Blanco, Cityscape and Ransom Note to be second. If the obvious happens and Goldi and CC are 1-2, I'll lose on this race.

3.05 King's Stand Stakes

A ferocious gallop is certain here over this Group One five furlong sprint. Plenty of these will want it faster, and I'm taking a punt on three at big prices in Arctic, Monsieur Chevalier, and Tangerine Trees each way.

Star Witness may trump them all but is too short, unless you bagged the recommended 8/1 last week.

3.45 St James Palace Stakes

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The Frankel Show. I don't expect anything to beat him, and I'm lucky forward to the eulogizing with Sir Henry (note, no apostrophe's required any more! 🙂 )

To chase him home the nearest, I'm siding with Excelebration, an improved sort who won't mind the going whatever happens, and Wootton Bassett, who is better than he showed last time when things went against him.

Exactas are the play again, with Frankel over Excelebration and Wootton Bassett.

4.25 Coventry Stakes

A tough race where form in the book will improved upon by the vast majority of runners. 8/1 or shorter is the place to be here, and last time winners too. Rested horses (off the track for 21 days or more) are favoured, as are those having their second or third career start here.

All of which whittles things down to Power and Gatepost for me. I've been following Gatepost throughout his career - primarily by betting horses against him! - and he looks like he has a lot of improvement still to come.

Lots of dangers including the Wesley Ward runner, Italo, Commissar and Power.

5.00 Ascot Stakes

20 runners over two and a half miles in a handicap. Junior heads the market, and he won this last year in processional style, a feat he replicated at the Cheltenham Festival. What an absolute treat for the racing club members who own him. Lucky buggers.

He's got top weight here and I reckon he might find it tougher this time around. Lots of dangers of course, but the one with the bombproof profile is Nicky Henderson's improving mare, Veiled.

She has won three of her last four starts, including a 2m6f hurdle at Cheltenham, so won't be stopping and she was going away from her opposition over an inadequate 1m6f last time when winning readily. Kieren Fallon is hardly a negative in the saddle.

Smallish stakes, win only, Veiled.

5.35 Windsor Castle Stakes

Tough as they come, this one, and certainly not one to go mad on. Fillies have an awful record (0 from 25 in last fourteen years).

Some big priced winners in recent times, including 100/1 shot Flashman's Papers, mean I'm siding with a couple of outsiders against the field here.

Specifically, Bayleyf and Springinmystep each way, the former from Flashman's training yard, and the latter from the shrews Michael Dods stable.

Wesley's Gentleman's Code may also be of interest here.

Placepot Perm

Race 1: 7 (Goldikova)
Race 2: 5, 6, 7, 11, 12 (Kingsgate Native, Mar Adentro, Monsieur Chevalier, Star Witness, Tangerine Trees)
Race 3: 4 (Frankel)
Race 4: 10, 17, 22 (Gatepost, Power, St Barths)
Race 5: 1, 12, 15, 19 (Junior, Zigato, Veiled, Rattan)
Race 6: 3, 9, 10, 11 (Bayleyf, Frederick Engels, Gentlemans Code, Hamza)

1 x 5 x 1 x 3 x 4 x 4 = 240 bets

An alternative is to choose only Frederick Engels (#9) in the last, and lay him for a place on Betfair to guarantee a return if you're still going by then. That would make the bet only 60 lines, but of course it excludes the opportunity of an upset result in the last leg, which is possible!

[Hope that made sense!!!]

Matt

p.s. what's your day one banker or best each way fancy? As ever, share the love. 🙂

 

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22 replies
  1. Tony Coleman says:

    Matt, if you leave the last race to just one selection, then the lower stakes perm is 60 lines, not 48?
    My best bet for Tuesday is Mezmaar.

  2. Sean says:

    Hi Matt , thanks for the heads-up and all the info.. We need all the help , we can get to wade thro’ the Ascot week . Going , may be critical to many changes in trends . Best e-way bet of the meeting is Fictional Account in the Gold Cup @ 20/1 . He has form with Fame&G and Rite of P ( non-runner , now ) and is way over priced . Best of luck to all . Sean ..

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Sean – I love an interesting outsider and that one fits the bill well! 🙂
      Matt

  3. Pete Hodges says:

    Hi Matt, thanks for you thoughts. My nap for Tuesday is Cityscape. Ryan Moore is in blinding form and the horse likes it softish. Goldikova only just won last year and Canford Cliffs is a better horse than Paco Boy. Therefore I fancy Canford Cliffs to finish in front of Goldikova. However, the record of Lockinge winners in this race is not good, and I don’t fancy Canford to win. Cape Blanco is a mile and a quarter horse and I think the bookies have priced him up wrong. In my book he should be 20-1 and Cityscape 11-2.
    Avoid the last race like the plague: it’s too difficult.
    Best of luck tomorrow.

  4. Dennis says:

    Thanks for the info Matt. It’s Bridgetown and Stone of Folca in the 3.05 and Fulbright and Lethal Force in the 4.25, for me.
    Fingers Crossed
    Dennis

  5. Gary says:

    Hi Matt only 2 races of interest for me on day 1, Prohibit at 16/1 in the King Stand and Palomar 28/1 and Unleashed 100/1 in Ascot stakes small ew singles and 2 small ew doubles. Wednesday is much more like it for me with my bet of the week Invincible Soul in the Hunt cup. Anyway nice to see your picks and good luck to all your readers.

    cheers Gary

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Gary – you’re a far better judge of the handicaps than me!

      I did back Nanton for a nice bit on Betfair the other week, after he failed to win at Newmarket that say. Sure you had a pound or two on as well… 🙂

      Matt

  6. David says:

    Hi Matt
    Just one bet for me tomorrow – Junior in the Ascot Stakes. He may be 10lbs higher than last year but is in a different class to this lot!

  7. David Dickinson says:

    no really strong fancies as yet until we get a going report in the morning but whatever the going i believe Sole Power can show improvement again and there is some bits of form on softish ground early in his career to make him a contender to be bang there at the finish. Also the draw has been kind.
    Good Luck to all

  8. Gary says:

    Hi Matt, it’s fair to say stanjames who went 33’s were relieved of a good few quid thanks to Nanton. I was wrong on the day but it more than paid me back.

    Cheers Gary

  9. Mike says:

    Hi , I agree with gary , so it’s Prohibit for me in the Kings Stand on day one. i really don’t fancy the rest on day one.
    Mike

  10. dtravs says:

    Hi Mat Frankel to live up to super horse status Bet over 5lths to win also Kingsgate Native to get us off to a flyer I have the prayer mat out already Dave……….

  11. David says:

    Thanks for the post looks a difficult day!

    E/W 5pm – Because we can 33/1 currently

    Good luck all!

    Yorky Dave

  12. peter new says:

    Hi Matt,
    Thanks for all the info, the going is good this morning I see, doesn’t make it
    any easier to find winners though does it? Stat’s are against Goldikova and
    it’s not a good race for jollies so that rules the front two out, probably a race
    to watch. Come to think of it, as I could’t pick a winner in a walkover at the
    moment I think I might watch all of them.
    Good luck to everyone.
    Pete .

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Peter

      The going is ‘officially’ good, and the fact that Sole Power’s trainer said he wouldn’t run the horse if the going had the word ‘soft’ in the description surely didn’t have anything to do with that…!

      Seriously, check the time of the first race, and the performance of Canford Cliffs. If CC wins in a fast time, it’s good. If not, it’s probably still on the soft side.

      Matt

  13. Ross says:

    Awesome insight once again Matt
    things went fairly well for punters today, will it last??

    • Matt Bisogno says:

      Thanks Ross – could have been a lot better with big priced horses just missing the frame in a couple of races. Will it last? Almost certainly not, but that’s the fun of it! 😉

      Matt

  14. Dennis says:

    Hi Matt
    Two of Cecil’s for me, Jacqueline Quest and Twice Over, first one unfortunate to lose the £1.000 last year.
    dennis

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