Royal Ascot Post Mortem

It was the best of weeks, it was the worst of weeks...

It was the best of weeks, it was the worst of weeks...

It was the best of weeks, it was the worst of weeks (to butcher and paraphrase Dickens' introduction to A Tale of Two Cities). That was last week at Royal Ascot.

Dickens went on, and he could not have been more apt had he been clairvoyant and foreseen Royal Ascot 2011:

"it was the age of wisdom, it was the age of foolishness, it was the epoch of belief, it was the epoch of incredulity, it was the season of Light, it was the season of Darkness, it was the spring of hope, it was the winter of despair, we had everything before us, we had nothing before us, we were all going direct to heaven, we were all going direct the other way."

Such wisdom before the event looked merely foolish after; so much belief was regurgitated as incredulity; light rapidly became darkness (with the only light left being the weight of my wallet); hope sprung into desperation; all that was before us disintegrated into nothing much at all; and my seat at the top table looked more akin to a chair with a power socket on its side and 50,000 volts about to be applied.

Annoyance. Frustration. Bewilderment.

These are just some of the emotions with which I greeted last week's festival of brilliant racing and hopeless punting. To add insult to injury, the only day I didn't bet was the day I found winners at 16/1 and 12/1.

Here are some of the numbers from my own personal record book (and records were set for me personally last week, all of them unwanted ones).

- There were just shy of 16 runners per race, on average, and winners won at odds of around 7.75/1 on average.

- Favourites returned a level stakes loss of around 7.5 points

- My selections returned a level stakes loss of 12.5 points

- The selections I bet returned a level stakes loss of 26.5 points (there were only 30 races!)

- I lost a(n un)healthy four figure sum, my worst week betting in 25 years

Ouch.

So what were the lessons to take from this week, if any?

Lesson #1: Check the time of the first race each day and do your own maths on the probable going.

Day 1: Good, Good to Soft in places (times indicate it was at least Good, Good to Firm in places)
Day 2: Good (probably)
Day 3: Good to Soft, Soft in places (jockeys reported that to be fair in the home straight, but that it was borderline heavy on the round course!)
Day 4: Soft (almost certainly heavy in parts of the round course)
Day 5: Soft (very, very, very soft!)

Having done a lot of my own legwork in advance of the racing, I was unable to respond to the times as I ought to have, and this is a real lesson for me when the weather is changeable.

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Lesson #2: Draw biases are more confusing than helpful.

The first thing many people do when faced with a field of 25+ runners is try to make things simpler by implying a draw bias. Certainly, that's one of the first things I do.

This is rendered more complicated when the bias - if there even is one - changes based on the going conditions, which is also need to be inferred based on race times because of the difficulties of believing 'official' going descriptions.

And then of course there is the reversal of the draw numbers. What used to be a high bias has now become a low bias because all stall numbering has been standardised from the start of this season.

If you knew that already, good. If you knew that and remembered to apply it to your calculations, well done. If you knew that already, applied it to your calculations, and factored in the imact of the going, congratulations.

And if you knew all of the above, and applied it, and actually saw events transpire in the manner you expected, go to the top of the class.

I remain bewildered by the impact of the draw, and don't believe it is a reliable yardstick unless ground conditions are constant throughout the week, and across the full area of the course. This was obviously not the case last week.

Lesson #3: Trying to pick a winner in every race at Royal Ascot is the worst kind of folly.

On a normal Saturday, I would rarely touch a twenty-plus runner flat handicap with a bargepole, still less if it was a sprint handicap. So why then would I decide that wagering every race (on the four of the five days that I bet) was a prudent strategy at five days worth of ultra-Saturday competitiveness?

Folly is a polite word to describe it. Candy from a baby is an apt description of my relationship with my bookmakers last week. And, because of the very public nature of much of my big meeting betting, it was also extremely embarrassing.

Not that I did any better in the Group races...

Lesson #4: Flat racing is harder than jumps racing; Ascot is harder than Goodwood (or any other meeting).

Not just this year, but most years, the toughest race meeting of the year from a punting perspective is Royal Ascot.

It's not just the quantity of participants. It's also the quality of them, in depth. And the varying nature of the course (round mile, straight mile; far better drainage on the straight course than the round; unfathomable draw implications). And the international imponderables.

For, I think, four of the last five years, I've been away somewhere during Royal Ascot week, and I'd forgotten just how bloody difficult it is to win from betting at the meeting. I will almost certainly book a week away somewhere this time next year!

Lesson #5: If there is ever a race meeting to attend and savour the atmosphere whilst betting small 'fun stakes' only, this is it!

I had a great day at Royal Ascot on Tuesday. Really good fun. Top class racing. Easy on the eye in every way. And, with around half the number of people there on the first day than on Saturday (43,000 compared to 76,000), it was possible to get a bet on, get a jug of Pimm's in, 'make some space', and so on.

The royal element, and the commensurate pageantry, is something to enjoy and be proud of. (They try to do this sort of stuff elsewhere in the world and it rarely works - I'm not a royalist especially, nor am I anti-royals, but I do love the heritage and tradition of it all).

But keep most of your money in your wallet for a race at Chepstow where you really fancy one!

********

If you managed to get out in front on the week, take a bow, son (as a certain disgraced former commentator, and current betting exchange 'ambassador', would say).

For the rest of us, it's time to regroup, acknowledge our very human failings (addressed predominantly to myself), and move on. Today is another day... thank the deity of your choice for that!

********

Now then, it's not just any other day. It's the first day of Wimbledon's marvellous tennis extravaganza. All the latest men's singles Wimbledon betting can be found on the geegeez odds site here.

And the betting is interesting this year, with it looking like a genuine three horse race (or four if you actually believe Andy Murray can win).

Federer has won six of the last eight, Nadal the other two. Federer is a best priced 23/10 (just over 9/4) with titanbet, 9/4 with Betfred, and much shorter (2/1 or less) with the rest of the bookies.

Nadal can be supported at 51/20 with titanbet, which is a standout price. Coral and William Hill are 5/2, and everyone else goes a fair bit shorter (generally 9/4).

But the chap I like is Novak Djokovic, who is in the best form of his career, and has plenty of grass court pedigree (twice a semi-finalist, including last year).

Djoko's moved up to #2 in the world, and he's a best priced 4/1 with Hills and Ladbrokes. He should have too much for decent grass court players in Baghdatis, Troicki and Soderling in his quarter, and then he's going to face down that man, Federer.

Fed is obviously 'the man' at Wimbledon, but there are reasons to believe he's on his way down now, and Djoko is very much a star in the ascendancy. You can bet Djokovic each way and get 2/1 on the place if he makes the final. That looks the best play to my eye here.

William Hill are a standout 7/1 on Andy Murray, and I'm afraid I simply cannot see him beating Nadal, which means he can't make the final, which means he's no each way value. Of course, if you disagree, then you'll be availing yourself of their generous offer.

Further down the lists, Gael Monfils is a 350/1 shot with Victor Chandler. He's in Murray's quarter, and made the fourth round in both 2008 and 2009, before progressing to the quarter finals last year. He's another improving player (seeded #9) and, whilst he probably won't win, he could 'go deep' and present a decent trading opportunity.

After last week in Berkshire, I'm ready for a spot of tennis (weather permitting)!

Matt

p.s. leave a comment and let us know how you got on last week. Did you win? (Really?!) Horses to follow? Performances of merit? Fancies in the tennis? Share your insights with the rest of us. 🙂

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42 replies
  1. Avatar
    Mike Brennan says:

    Hi Matt, i too had a shocker, so much so that i didn”t have a bet Saturday as i was still in a state of shock from the previous few days. I very nearly deleted all my spread sheets and stats as well as other info including stable information, as well as unsubscribing to a certain stats web site.
    I don’t bet on any other sport, so i”ll take a couple of days to recoup, and probably come back for more (as usual)..
    All the best,
    Mike

  2. Avatar
    Turbo says:

    Agree with you on Djokovic, Isner is an outsider option – backed him at 66’s last week and see Sportingbet have him at 200’s today! As long as he does not have a 2 day match with Mahut again he may go deep in the draw for a trading opportunity.

  3. Avatar
    denis says:

    Hi Matt, i went in completly the opposite direction to you. I only had 6 bets at Royal Ascot and dutched 2 horses in each race. Out of the 6 races i had the winner in 5 of them and made a profit of 66 pts. Now anyone that knows me knows that i hate flat racing mainly because of the observations that you have made above but having descovered an old system that my father used way back in the 70s that i knew he had great success with i thought i would give it a go at Ascot and well…5/6 races, and i proofed them to a well known respected person within the industry. cheers denis.

  4. Avatar
    dennis says:

    Good lessons here, nicely summarised..(pity you didn’t back your 16/1 & 12/1 ones, ouch !)
    .I agree jumps racing is easier to pick winners. Royal Ascot was far too competitive and so I stuck to small fun plays and done OK, overall.
    Mainly I stick to the lower class everyday meetings and do OK..
    I learn to avoid the big meetings , or just play small stakes and very, very selective (try to be !) in making a bet.
    My Ascot winners were Rewilding, Frederick Engels, Veiled , Banimpire , Maybe & Power.
    Losers too, but overall a profit (duncan, sole power, I ‘m a dreamer, Regent Street ,etc).
    I have learned not to think I can pick the winner from these big field handicaps, even where the form lines seem to suggest I am onto a good thing ; the races are ultra competitive .
    Cheers.

  5. Avatar
    MARTIN KNIGHT says:

    Morning Matt
    Just a few comments on last week, On a betting prospective normally every year when Royal Ascot comes around I avoid it like the plague as i think probably the hardest meet for punters, the bookies always seem to go home with smiles on their faces. This year was a slight exception as i could not resist in backing Frankel and also Fame and Glory so I was delighted at the outcome of their races. I also really fancied rewilding on the wednesday morning to overturn so you think so i had a very small wager on that, The only other fancy was Cai Shen in The Brittannia on thursday, I think Royal Ascot is a fantastic meeting but a graveyard for most punters, Fortunately I had a good week. I also find when everybody is concentrating on big meetings like royal Ascot it is a good time to look at the smaller meetings and I can normally find a nice winner or two. Carry on with your good work I do find it interesting

    Kind Regards
    Martin

  6. Avatar
    Chris O'Bee says:

    Hi Matt, Ouch !
    I was neither a winner or a loser, I rarely back horses and certainly not when the races are full of unknowns !
    Monfils is, as I type, 510/1 on BF so backing him with the idea to lay him back IF he progresses seems sound. He is around 1/7 to win in the 1st round so that would be a start 🙂

    Chris

  7. Avatar
    Martin says:

    Matt, thanks for your honesty and humility, we all need a bit of that in this game!
    I for one appreciate your hard work in posting these free tips, so don’t beat yourself up over a bad week – there’s always an opportunity around the corner.

  8. Avatar
    DAVE YEATES says:

    If it’s any consolation Matt, the several tipsters I subscribe to also had a nightmare Ascot with the exception of Strikeline (no, I don’t take affiliate fees!) who tipped me Society Rock antepost, and also had Julianes. I did attend on day 1 and managed to come away from the track at evens having backed Vieled. As you say, lessons are learned (my wife picked Deacon Blues because she likes the name, whereas I was on the other Fanshawe horse!) and you just know that the bookies pray for soft/heavy going at the big festivals.

  9. Avatar
    Hugh says:

    I couldn’t agree more with you about the switching around of the draw numbers. I narrowed the Golden Jubilee down to Mac’s Power and Deacon Blues looked at the draw and pulled the wrong rabbit out of the hat.

    Was this not one of R for C’s initiatives to make it all more acccessible to their new audoience? are they the dimwits who like to come and brawl?

    Hugh

  10. Avatar
    Tom says:

    Surprisingly I DID win overall at Ascot. I had a good opening day and an even better closing day. Alas my biggest bet, an antepost Lucky15, which gave me a 16/1 winner on the opening day failed to develope into the jacpot I expected with only one other horse placing at the 20/1 I had taken for day 5. my choices for days 3 & 4 letting me down badly.
    Yet my disappointment was nothing like the time I was brought to Royal Ascot to celebrate my 21st. birthday in 1964. Then I was up £120 on the first three races (3months salary at that time) I put the whole lot on a ‘certainty’ in the fourth, a Vincent O’Brien/Lester Pigott 1/3 superhorse. I watched in horror as Pigott nearly pulled the horses head of it’s neck to stop it winning. It was the most blatant act of throwing a race I, or anyone in the stand around had ever seen. The crowd in Tatterstalls enclosure rose as one and howled in fury at Pigott. To our astonishment there was no inquiry – the greats of the turf, Pigott and O’Brien were deemed untouchable. To make matters worse with my last £10 I went down to the bookies and in the middle of asking for my tenner on a Doug Smith 10/1 shot I lost faith and blurted out “No, change that to ten on the favourite!” Guess who won?!
    I came away without a penny. The rich old lady who had brought me there in her chauffeur driven RollsRoyce had put a miserable half-crown e/w on every winner

  11. Avatar
    Brian says:

    Hi Matt
    I backed 9 winners from the 30 races at Royal Ascot and was 19 points up. it was the result of a lot of hard work analysing trends then a bit of luck in picking the right ones from the resultant shortlists. I wonder if the draw bias is more to do with the minds of the jockeys and where the front-runners are rather than the ground conditions.

  12. Avatar
    shaun says:

    I can gladly say I won more money last week than I ever have in horse racing. I had 2 bets all week, the first was Junior which I had 200 each way at 4’s thinking this was surely a bet to nothing as I couldnt see him outside of the placings however I got this very wrong. My second bet was 400 win 200 place on Deacon Blues at average odds of around 8/1 this one bet returned me £4200!

  13. Avatar
    SEAN says:

    hi,

    I had 5 ante-post bets,
    STAR WITNESS finished 2nd,
    FAME & GLORY WON @ 6/1 – and should win another 2 or 3 Gold Cups, I am not sure why they are running this horse in the ARC instead of the MELB CUP.

    HOOF IT LOST, and DEACON BLUES @ 10/1 WON – my compliments to TOM SEGAL.
    DELEGATOR was withdrawn so I lost my stake.

    I also backed WINTERS NIGHT who finished 3rd, DAYIA who finished 4th, and SAGRAMOR @ 8/1 which WON.

    So I was quite happy with the way things went!!

    fyi – I think BROWN PANTHER has a great chance in the ST LEGER and have backed it at 10/1 – the danger looks like the GOSDEN horse which is too short at 3/1 for an a/post bet imo.

  14. Avatar
    shaun says:

    with regards to the tennis I cant se past another Nadal Federer final. I hear what your saying about Djokovic as he went on that amzing winning streak, however this winning streak was put to an end by none other than Roger Federer and if he ends up meeting Federer at Wimbledon on arguably Federers favourite surface I can only see one winner

  15. Avatar
    SEAN says:

    “STAR WITNESS finished 2nd” – I foolishly ignored Garys tip on PROHIBIT which he put up at 16/1, I think it was a/post, which beat the Australian horse by 1/2 length.

    DELEGATOR must have a great chance in the JULY CUP, but ONLY if it gets its ground.

  16. Avatar
    Chris says:

    That was a rough 5 days matt just getting worse as the week went on. I need a 100-1 shot to recoup. I’ll be licking my wounds for some time to come.
    Cheers Chris

  17. Avatar
    John Gibbons says:

    Hi Matt
    Only back small stakes – £5/£10 per race but did manage to win everyday.
    But not backing in every race.
    Only down side I had been backing James Fanshawe’s horses every day but
    left them alone on Saturday
    Time to move on
    Regards
    John

  18. Avatar
    Dave Hughes says:

    Mat,sorry to hear about your losses at Ascot.I also found it very hard mainly due to our great british weather.I have to report though that i am able to take a bow as i made a profit of £137 to £10 stakes betting on all the races as you did.How did i do this,well i followed the trends and pulled in a few big odds winners.I also took advantage of some of the bookies generous offers and i think that is very important in making a profit,best odds being one but there were offers like third odds a place and 5 and sometimes 6 places and even quarter odds on all races.Paddy power offered to refund in free bets your average stake bet over the 5 days of ascot up to £50 i took advantage of that.So there is a lesson on the big events,shop around and take advantage of those offers.My advice for wimbledon for a guaranteed profit,lay Murray in the outright market,bound not to win.

  19. Avatar
    STUART RATTRAY says:

    HI MATT SORRY ABOUT YOUR MISFORTUNE LAST WEEK ,BUT I THINK YOU CAN COPE,ON THE FIRST DAY I HIT THE POST WITH THE HELP OF NICK PULLEN 20/1 2ND,10/1 2ND,6/1 2ND + 11/2 WINNER ON EW LUCKY 15,LAST DAY A TIP FOR SOCIETY ROCK FROM STABLE SAVED THE DAY ,WISH IHAD MORE ON DIDNT KNOW HOW GOOD SOURCE WAS,REST OF WEEK HELD MY OWN BET LUCKY STUARTY

  20. Avatar
    paul petit says:

    You are being too hard on yourself. Those two winners were super picks.
    You should take this meet and group it with previous meet to see how you would have averaged out in the long run. With so many horses in each race, it was like 20/1 against you in practically each race. Believe me, those two winners save your meeting. Too bad you didn’t get to play them.

    You know the drill, get back up on the horse (or horses) in this case.

  21. Avatar
    Peter Colledge says:

    Many thanks, Matt, for your honesty and probity. I’m with Martin above. And, frankly, I am quite annoyed at some of the bloggers…hindsight is a wonderful gift, enhanced when posting success AFTER the racing. If some of the above had given their choices BEFORE the day’s racing, I would be much more impressed. I don’t normally like Willie Carson, but I did like his riposte to Clare after Rewilding had beaten the hot favourite. She said, what do you say to those who put their house on the favourite? He said, get a tent.

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Peter,

      Thanks as always for your comments. I think in fairness to those who have shared their successes (and failures) here, they were responding to my invitation, and are to be congratulated for making a very tough meeting pay. Unless of course you’re referring to other blogs (which I believe actually do exist! 😉 ).

      As for Willie, yes I caught that. I thought it was cheeky but amusing. I actually am probably in a minority of one in quite enjoying his contribution, and his relationship with both Clare and Rishi on BBC. They don’t always agree, and they don’t always tow the party line. That surely is what a presenting team should be all about. Would that it could be so with Channel 4’s largely abominable mob of has been’s and never were’s.

      Best,
      Matt

      • Avatar
        Pauld says:

        Couldn’t agree more about Channel 4’s racing team. What a shower! They really must turn some people off racing, which is a shame. Whereas BBC’s lot are more like human beings.

  22. Avatar
    Rog says:

    Hi Matt, I was away in Malta last week so didn’t bother with the racing, probably a good job by the sound of things.
    I’m going along with Dave Hughes though for wimbledon, Andy Murray is the best lay of the year after the Queens Derby Horse. I wish him all the best, but he’s not up with the likes of Nadal just yet methinks.
    Rog.

  23. Avatar
    Karl says:

    Matt, Listen to your mate Gavin, The skeleton man, (Mr James Fanshaw) should be followed even if he runs the stable cat. 3 runners in 2 races. (25/1 and 15/2 winners).
    I have stats for all races going back over 20 years. Most are well known some are not, Like all punting it needs to be fine tuned on a regular basis. I am quite happy to back 2,3, even 4 horses in a race if I am reasonably confident of covering the winner.
    The story of my week
    Day 1 Queen Anne. NO BET
    King Stand..Sole Power win, Prohibit e/w ( Loser and Winner 14/1)
    St James Palace..Wooton Bassett e/w (Loser)
    Coventry……Power win, Gatepost win (winner 9/2 and loser)
    Ascot Stakes ….Veiled win (winner 11/2)
    Windsor Castle…..Lexington Spirit e/w (loser)
    Day 2. Jersey Stakes Havane Smoker win (Loser)
    Windsor Forest… I’m a dreamer win (loser)
    Prince of Wales… No Bet
    Royal Hunt Cup.. Bronze Prince , Dance and Dance, Gunner Lindley, Juleanas, all e/w (winner 16/1, 2nd 12/1, 2 Losers) No I didn’t do the forecast.
    Queen Mary Gypsy Robin win (loser)
    Sandringham. Humdrum, Winters Night,Rhythm of Light. (2 Losers, Won 8/1)
    Day 3 Norfolk…Silverheels, win Burwaaz e/w (2 Losers)
    Ribblesdale No Bet
    Ascot Gold Cup ..Tastahil, Opinion Pole both e/w (Loser /2nd 16/1)
    Britannia…Sagramor,e/w, Tropical Beat e/w (winner 8/1, Loser)
    Tercentenary, Tazahum win Laajooj e/w (2 Losers)
    King George V Sud Pacifique e/w (Loser)
    Day 4 Albany.. No Bet
    King Edward VII No Bet
    Coronation Stakes ..Nova Hawk Win, Claiomh Solais e/w (2 Losers)
    Wolferton… Beachfire e/w (won 14/1)
    Queens Vase.. Regent Street Win (Loser)
    Buckingham Palace…Smarty Socks, Noble Citizen both e/w (2 Losers)
    Day 5 Chesham… No Bet
    Hardwicke ….Passion For Gold e/w (Loser)
    Golden Jubilee…Society Rock, Definightly Both e/w (Won 25/1, Loser)
    Wokingham…..Deacon Blues, Macs Power, both win Lui Rey e/w (Won 15/2, 2 Losers)
    Duke of Edinburgh…Sharaveen win, Life and Soul, Ile De Re bothe/w (3 Losers)
    Queen Alexandra Dayia win , Chink of Light e/w ( 2 Losers)

    43 backed Winners at 14/1,9/2,11/2,8/1,16/1,8/1,14/1,25/1,15/2, and e/w placed 12/1,16/1

    Roll on Goodwood.
    Karl.

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Nice work Karl – looks like you took the best of what Gavin and I had to say, added in some magic of your own, and had a fantastic week!

      Matt

      p.s. Yes, James Fanshawe. I could kick myself.

  24. Avatar
    Steve says:

    As has been said above – you should listen to your mate Gavin!

    I followed Gavin’s trends all week, along with a few ideas of my own, and came out with a healthy profit in the end. The trainers and jockey trends he highlighted worked wonders on the last day (giving us 5 winners out of the 6 races) and Gavin gave us Swingkeel in the last in the guide to make it a clean sweep. I also managed 5 out of 6 winners on the Friday. I made a small profit on the Tuesday but had to make do with break even and a small loss on Wednesday and Thursday, but overall it was a very profitable week, thanks mainly to Gavin and his Festival Trends guide.

    Steve

  25. Avatar
    tom says:

    HI Matt, I suscribed to gavins trends analysis and like yourself done my nuts. I decided to follow it all the way through which was a bad idea. I am just wondering if he will stick to the guarantee and provide trends guides now for the rest of the year. It is still useful information. i cannot blame anyone but myself for bettting 30 races in a row often with 2 picks a race. Urghh

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Hi Tom

      Your email contrasts bizarrely from the one from Steve, who subscribed to the same service. I think Gavin was pretty close to even and maybe slightly in front over the meeting, so that’s a bit odd.

      In any case, yes of course he’ll be honouring his offer.

      Best,
      Matt

      p.s. to clarify, I did my nuts by following my own advice, and would have fared vastly better if I had followed Gavin. (But please don’t tell him I said that!!) 😉

    • Avatar
      Gavin says:

      Just for the record. From the 30 races we tipped 8 winners as our ‘likeliest trends’ selections (The Racing Post trends guru managed 2)……

      Canford Cliffs 11/8 (+2.37)
      Frankel 3/10 (+1.30)
      Rhythm Of Light 8/1 (+4.50)
      Bapak Chinta 6/1 (+7.00)
      Dimension NR (+1.00)
      Nathaniel 11/4 (+3.75)
      Immortal Verse 8/1 (+4.50)
      No Hubris NR (+.50)
      Maybe 5/2 (+3.50)
      Swingkeel 11/2 (+6.50)

      to show a +4.92 profit at SP!!

      Taking betfair SP this profit was much bigger and both Immortal Verse and Swinkeel were available at much bigger odds in the morning (12/1 and 14/1). We also had a 10/1 3rd, 16/1 second, 16/1 third and a 50/1 third amongst our placed runners.

      Between the top rated and likeliest trends winners we had 11 of the 30 winners.
      I also gave out a free bonus guide which clearly identified James Fanshawe runners as being strongly fancied.

      All in all I thought it went very well considering it’s the hardest meeting of the year bar none and trying to pick the winner of 30 incredibly competitive races is just impossible.

      Gavin.
      Festival trends

  26. Avatar
    tom says:

    Cheers Matt. Absolutely no disrespect as i said its good information I just did not use it properly but I will be greatful to recieve more trends and have another bash.

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      No problem Tom. You took responsibility, which is something I like and respect in any punter. You’ll get plenty of winners off Gavin during the rest of the year, too.

      Best,
      Matt

  27. Avatar
    aidan says:

    hi matt, like your good self i aim a few quid at the placepot, mostly i admit at the bigger meetings where the carrot is bigger. not going to bore or boast, just like to say thanks for your snippets of info each day. nice 1.

  28. Avatar
    tony says:

    matt dont beat yourself up. i’ve been trying to find a decent racing tipster for years, you are by far the best and most sincere i’ve ever come across.
    i’ve had winners from you i would never dream of backing thanks so much.
    regarding ascot some you win some you loose. we live to fight another day.
    long may you continue.
    thanks.
    tony

  29. Avatar
    steve says:

    I backed seven winners at up to 16/1 but as I backed in every race I had a few losers too. I agree with you Matt, RA is for fun primarily with only a few serious betting opportunities. The bet that gave me most satisfaction was backing Brigantin for a place at around 6/1 on betfair. I also thought that Mannasus and Deacon Blue and Bapak Chintra were good value despite the size of the fields. The ground changes and the draw were nightmares. I agree with every word you wrote on those subjects. Even the jockeys didn’t have a clue as they switched from side to side as if they knew what the draw bias was only to be proved wrong time after time. The great thing about RA is that losses are, as they say, only lent. Since the form lines are now clearly established and Irish, French and UK form can be tied together it should be possible to make a profit over the next few months. For an intelligent backer even the vagaries of the draw can be analysed and make us some money subsequently as finishing position will never tell the whole story. Another lesson is the same as ‘heads and tails’ just because there have been ten heads in a row doesn’t alter the odds for each throw one jot. Just because some stables weren’t having winners didn’t mean it was more likely that they would….which is exactly what punters seemed to think after they backed one horse after another from those stables. Knowing that Fanshawe and Meehan had set their stall out for RA winners meant they were always more likely to triumph at some stage. Stats and analysis point out stables that target RA as does close form study to establish training patterns for horses as well as identifying prep races. Trainers that can target a horse at a specific race are always likely to do better in handicaps than trainers who take in one race after another with no specific target in mind, I think the other big lesson is that when studying large fields at RA, form in big fields is always more useful than similar form in small fields. Horse A beating horse B by half a length in a field of 28 at levels is usually more valuable and better form than horse C beating horse B by 3 lengths in a field of six giving 3lbs.

  30. Avatar
    roy says:

    Had a little on Monfils on betfair at 410. first round over 3-0 biggest price i have ever backed,
    lets hope we have some fun with this.

  31. Avatar
    Alan Slinn says:

    Hi matt I used the racing post predictor and came up with about six winners cant remember exactly as I dont keep a record however my bet fair account showed a three point profit and had winners four days out of five

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    Ian S says:

    Hi Matt,

    I actually think that Ascot is the best meeting punting wise during the whole flat season. I’ve been getting winners there for the past few years now and have only been gambling full time for about 4 years. Winners I had were: Canford Cliffs 11/8, Fame & Glory 2/1, Bapak Chinta 7/1, Veiled 11/2, Sagramour 9/1, Julienas 16/1, Nathaniel 11/4. I also had a string of placed horses. Hard luck stories included So You Think leavng me down for my big “banker” treble, Star Witness failing by half a length to get a double I had up with Veiled which payed 40/1, and I got 5 horses up in the placepot on three separate days, including the Friday when it was worth a juciy 2,500 quid.. but overall a good meeting 😉

    Ian

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    david says:

    Hi Matt

    Was pretty good for me last week; Tuesday, excellent. Weds, one winner in last. Thurs, one winner in first (but both shockers overall!). Friday, very nice. Saturday was the only day I could really get my teeth into it and, thanks to Gavins trends, your thoughts and some fine tuning of my own managed to get the placepot up 3 times. Unfortunately, I VERY rarely do the Jackpot an Saturday was no exception. My perm of 1-1-3-4-2-1 meant I missed out on £160,000 for a miserly £24!! I put in Fanshawe’s 25-1 winner and would probably have been the only person that did!! 🙁

    Hope your luck changes…
    David

    • Avatar
      Matt Bisogno says:

      Nice picking David – and sorry to hear you missed the big payoff. Ouch.

      My luck will change, just maybe not yet! At least Monfils bungled his way into the second round…!

      Matt

  34. Avatar
    Ray says:

    I took an absolute hammering, I noted the blog comments on Fanshawe horses and duly checked each day for runners, I was away on Saturday and looked up runners on my phone, noted the Fanshawe runners but failed to back them. Ive been dwelling on that for the last few days as I couldnt tip shit out of a bucket (as we say in Ireland) at the moment. Fanshawe’s lost double will haunt me until I can somehow get the ship steadied.

    Ray

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