Royal Ascot 2018: Day 4 Preview, Tips

Royal Ascot Trends – DAY FIVE (Sat 22nd June 2019)

As we move into the final day at ROYAL ASCOT there is plenty more to get excited about, but the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes is the day's feature contest. As always we've got all the races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

2019 Royal Ascot Horse Racing Trends

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Arthur Kitt (13/2)
2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
15/16 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
14/16 – Ran over 6f last time out (9 won)
14/16 – Had just 1 previous career run
13/16 – Were foaled in March or earlier
11/16 – Won their previous race
11/16 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/16 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
12 of the last 13 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
10 of the last 13 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

 

3.05 - Jersey Stakes (Group 3) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 7f

Recent Jersey Stakes Winners

2018 – Expert Eye (8/1)
2017 – Le Brivido (2/1 fav)
2016 – Ribchester (7/1)
2015 – Dutch Connection (14/1)
2014 – Mustajeeb (9/2 jfav)
2013 – Gale Force Ten (9/2 fav)
2012 – Ishvana (20/1)
2011 – Strong Suit (11/1)
2010 – Rainfall (8/1)
2009 – Ouqba (12/1)
2008 – Aqlaam (13/2)
2007 – Tariq (15/2)
2006 – Jeremy (9/2)
2005 – Proclamation (7/1)
2004 – Kheleyf (6/1)
2003 – Membership (20/1)
2002 - Just James (20/1)

 

Jersey Stakes Trends

16/17 – Had at least 1 run already that season
13/17 – Had 4 or more career runs
11/17 – Had won over 7f before
10/17 – Had won a Listed or better class race before
9/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
8/17 – Unplaced favourites
8/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
7/17 – Had run at Ascot before
7/17 – Horses from stall 8 placed
6/17 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
4/17 – Won their previous race
3/17 – Winning favourites
2/17 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3 wins in total)
2/17 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (5 wins in total)
The Irish have won 3 of the last 7 runnings
The horse from stall 11 has finished 2nd in 5 of the last 11 runnings

3.40 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

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Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Crystal Ocean (4/7 fav)
2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
16/16 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
14/16 – Placed last time out
14/16 – Had won over 1m4f before
12/16 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (7)
11/16 – Had run at Ascot before
11/16 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 9 winners)
10/16 – Placed favourites
10/16 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/16 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
7/16 – Won their previous race
6/16 – Winning favourites
4/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
11 of the last 13 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
9 of the last 13 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
7 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)

 

4.20 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2018 – Merchant Navy (4/1)
2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

15/16 – Previous distance (6f) winners
12/16 – Failed to win their last race
13/16 – Aged 5 or younger
13/16 – Previous Group Race winners
11/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/16 – Returned a double-figure price
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
5/16 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/16 – Winning favourite (joint)
2/16 – Trained by James Fanshawe
5 of the last 14 winners were Irish-bred
8 of the last 14 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 14 runnings
6 of the last 14 winners returned a double-figure price.

 

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2018 - Bacchus (33/1)
2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

19/19 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
19/19 – Had no more than 4 runs that season­­
18/19 – Finished sixth or better last time out
17/19 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/19 – Had won a race over 6f before
16/19 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/19 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
12/19 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
10/19 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
9/19 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/19 – Won their previous race
4/19 – Won by the favourite
10 of the last 13 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 13 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
9 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
8 of the last 9 winners came from a double-figure stall
6 of the last 8 runnings - the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 8 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 31 winners returning a double-figure price

 

5.35 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2018 - Pallasator (11/2)
2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

14/16 – Finished unplaced last time out
10/16 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
9/16 – Had run at Ascot before
9/16 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
5/16 – Won by a NH yard
5/16 – Irish-trained winners
3/16 – Winning favourites
3/16 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/16 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/16 – Trained by Willie Mullins
2/16 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/16 – Trained by Gordon Elliott
9 of the last 13 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
11 of the last 13 winners came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
10 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure stall

 

 

 

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