Royal Ascot 2018: Day 4 Preview, Tips

Royal Ascot Trends – DAY FIVE (Sat 24th June 2017)

As we move into the final day at ROYAL ASCOT there is plenty more to get excited about, but the Group One Diamond Jubilee Stakes is the day's feature contest. As always we've got all the races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

2.30 - Chesham Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 7f

Chesham Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – September (11/8 fav)
2016 – Churchill (8/11 fav)
2015 – Suits You (14/1)
2014 – Richard Pankhurst (10/1)
2013 – Berkshire (16/1)
2012 – Tha’ir (9/2)
2011 – Maybe (5/2 fav)
2010 – Zaidan (7/1)
2009 – Big Audio (22/1)
2008 – Free Agent (7/2 jfav)
2007 – Maze (11/2)
2006 – Champlain (7/2)
2005 – Championship Point (4/1)
2004 – Whazzat (7/1)
2003 – Pearl Of Love (11/10 fav)

Chesham Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had no more than 2 previous career runs
14/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Ran over 6f last time out (8 won)
13/15 – Had just 1 previous career run
12/15 – Were foaled in March or earlier
10/15 – Won their previous race
10/15 – Returned 7/1 or shorter in the betting
5/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Irish trained-winners (Aiden O’Brien)
2/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
2/15 – Trained by Richard Hannon
Ryan Moore has ridden the winners in 2011, 2016 and 2017
11 of the last 12 winners came between stalls 1-8
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 1 (3) or 7 (3)
9 of the last 12 winners returned 10/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 7/1
Trainer Paul Cole has won the race 4 times before

3.05 - Hardwicke Stakes (Group 2) (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 1m4f

Hardwicke Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Idaho (9/2)
2016 – Dartmouth (10/1)
2015 – Snow Sky (12/1)
2014 – Telescope (7/4 fav)
2013 – Thomas Chippendale (8/1)
2012 – Sea Moon (3/1 fav)
2011 – Await the Dawn (4/6 fav)
2010 – Harbinger (8/11 fav)
2009 – Bronze Cannon (8/1)
2008 – Macarthur (11/8 fav)
2007 – Maraahel (10/3)
2006 – Maraahel (9/2)
2005 – Bandari (10/1)
2004 – Doyen (6/5 fav)
2003 – Indian Creek (14/1)

Hardwicke Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
15/15 – Had won a Group 2 or 3 previously
13/15 – Placed last time out
13/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
11/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (6)
10/15 – Had run at Ascot before
10/15 – Aged 4 years-old (inc last 8 winners)
9/15 – Placed favourites
9/15 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
6/15 – Ran at Epsom last time out (Coronation Cup)
6/15 – Won their previous race
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
10 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners returned 9/2 or shorter
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 2-5 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

 

3.40 - Windsor Castle Stakes (Listed Race) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 5f

Windsor Castle Recent Winners

2017 – Sound And Silence (16/1)
2016 – Ardad (20/1)
2015 – Washington DC (5/1)
2014 – Hootenanny (7/2 fav)
2013 – Extortionist (16/1)
2012 – Hototo (14/1)
2011 – Frederick Engels (9/4 fav)
2010 – Marine Commando (9/2)
2009 – Strike The Tiger (33/1)
2008 – Flashmans Papers (100/1)
2007 – Drawnfromthepast (9/1)
2006 – Elhamri (20/1)
2005 – Titus Alone (11/4)
2004 – Chateau Istana (12/1)
2003 – Holborn (5/2 fav)
2002 – Revenue (14/1)

Windsor Castle Trends

16/16 – Had at least 1 previous outing
15/16 – Won by a foal born April or earlier
15/16 – Had 2 or 3 previous runs
13/16 – Had won over 5f before
11/16 – Placed last time out
11/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
8/16 – Won their previous race
9/16 – Returned a double-figure price (inc a 100/1 winner)
8/16 – Unplaced favourites
6/16 – Won by a Feb foal
3/16 – Winning favourites
2/16 – Trained by Wesley Ward
Just one horse placed from stall 1 in the last 10 runnings
7 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/1

 

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4.20 - Diamond Jubilee Stakes (Group 1) (CLASS 1) (3yo+) 6f

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – The Tin Man (9/2)
2016 – Twilight Son (7/2)
2015 – Undrafted (14/1)
2014 – Slade Power (7/2 fav)
2013 – Lethal Force (11/1)
2012 – Black Caviar (1/6 fav)
2011 – Society Rock (25/1)
2010 – Starspanglebanner (13/2 jfav)
2009 – Art Connoisseur (20/1)
2008 – Kingsgate Native (33/1)
2007 – Soldier’s Tale (9/1)
2006 – Les Arcs (33/1)
2005 – Cape Of Good Hope (8/1)
2004 - Fayr Jag (12/1)
2003 – Choisir (13/2)

Diamond Jubilee Stakes Key Trends

14/15 – Previous distance (6f) winners
12/15 – Failed to win their last race
12/15 – Aged 5 or younger
12/15 – Previous Group Race winners
11/15 – Had run at Ascot before
9/15 – Won by a UK-based yard
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Ran in the King’s Stand Stakes earlier at the meeting
3/15 – Winning favourite (joint)
5 of the last 13 winners were Irish-bred
7 of the last 13 winners came from a double-figure draw
No winner from stall 1 in the last 13 runnings
6 of the last 13 winners returned a double-figure price
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1

 

5.00 - Wokingham Stakes (Heritage Handicap) (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-110) 6f

Wokingham Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Out Do (25/1)
2016 – Outback Traveller (10/1)
2015 – Interception (10/1)
2014 – Baccarat (9/1)
2013 – York Glory (14/1)
2012 – Dandy Boy (33/1)
2011 – Deacon Blues (15/2)
2010 – Laddies Poker Two (9/2 fav)
2009 – High Standing (8/1)
2008 – Big Timer I (20/1)
2007 – Dark Missile (22/1)
2006 – Baltic King (10/1)
2005 – Iffraaj (9/4 fav)
2004 – Lafi (6/1 fav)
2003 – Ratio (14/1) / Fayr Jag (10/1)  (dead-heat)

Wokingham Stakes Key Trends

18/18 – Had won before over 6f or 7f
18/18 – Had no more than 4 runs that season¬¬
17/18 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
17/18 – Finished sixth or better last time out
16/18 – Had won a race over 6f before
15/18 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
12/18 – Had at least 2 runs already that season
11/18 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
9/18 – Had run at Ascot before (6 had won here)
8/18 – Ran at either Ascot, Goodwood or Newmarket last time
5/18 – Won their previous race
4/18 – Won by the favourite
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 13/1
10 of the last 12 winners carried 9-3 or less in weight
8 of the last 12 winners returned 14/1 or shorter
8 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure draw
7 of the last 8 winners came from a double-figure stall
6 of the last 7 runnings - the top 2 finishers all came from double-figure stalls
Horse from stall 15 has been placed in 3 of the last 7 runnings
Since 1980 there have been only 7 winning favourites
Since 1980 there have been 30 winners returning a double-figure price

 

5.35 - Queen Alexandra Stakes (Conditions Race) (CLASS 2) (4yo+) 2m5f159y

Queen Alexandra Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Oriental Fox (10/1)
2016 – Commissioned (12/1)
2015 – Oriental Fox (4/1)
2014 – Pique Sous (11/4)
2013 – Chiberta King (8/1)
2012 – Simenon (11/4 fav)
2011 – Swingkeel (11/2)
2010 – Bergo (10/1)
2009 – Caracciola (6/1)
2008 – Honolulu (7/4 fav)
2007 – Enjoy The Moment (6/1)
2006 – Baddam (11/2)
2005 – Cruzspiel (10/1)
2004 – Corrib Eclipse (25/1)
2003 – Cover Up (4/5 fav)

Queen Alexandra Stakes Key Trends

13/15 – Finished unplaced last time out
9/15 – Aged 4, 5 or 6 years old
9/15 – Had won over at least 2m on the flat before
8/15 – Had run at Ascot before
4/15 – Won by a NH yard
4/15 – Irish-trained winners
3/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Trained by Willie Mullins
8 of the last 12 winners returned 6/1 or shorter
11 of the last 12 winners ALL came from stalls 9-16 (inc)
10 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 7/1

 

 

 

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