Royal Ascot Trends – DAY FOUR (Fri 23rd June 2017)

As we move into day four at  ROYAL ASCOT there is plenty more to get excited about, but the two Group One's - The Coronation Stakes and the Commonwealth Cup - are the day's feature contest. As always we've got all the races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

 

2.30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)

 

Albany Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
14/14 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
14/14 – Never raced at Ascot before
13/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Won their previous race
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
3/14 – Ran at Sandown last time
4/14 – Previous winner over 6f
4/14 – Winning favourites
The last 11 winners came from double-figure stalls
8 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 11-14 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11.5/1

3.05 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

14/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
13/14 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
11/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Finished in the top three last time out
10/14 – Placed favourites
8/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
7/14 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
4/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
3/14 – Trained by John Gosden
3/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/13 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
10 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 4-8 (inc)
10 of the last 11 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

3.40 – The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

2 previous runnings
Quiet Reflection won the 2016 running for trainer Karl Burke
Muhaarar won the 2015 running for trainer Charles Hills
Trainer Saeed Bin Suroor has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Aidan O’Brien has a 15% record with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Richard Hannon is just 5 from 106 (5%) with his 3 year-olds at the track
Trainer Clive Cox is just 1 from 31 (3%) with his 3 year-olds at the track

 

4.20 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

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Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

15/15 – Had won over at least 7f before
14/15 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/15 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
11/15 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
10/15 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
7/15 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
7/15 – Were unplaced last time out
6/15 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
3/15 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
2/15 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
10 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 11 runnings
9 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just 1 horse placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 11 runnings
5 of the last 11 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (2)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 5/1

5.00 - Queen´s Vase (Listed) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 2m

Queen´s Vase Recent Winners

2016 – Sword Fighter (33/1)
2015 – Aloft (5/2 fav)
2014 – Hartnell (7/2)
2013 – Leading Light (5/4 fav)
2012 – Estimate (3/1 fav)
2011 – Namibian (7/2 fav)
2010 – Mikhail Glinka (2/1 fav)
2009 – Holberg (7/1)
2008 – Patkai (6/4 fav)
2007 – Mahler (7/1)
2006 – Soapy Danger (4/1)
2005 – Melrose Avenue (4/1)
2004 – Duke Of Venice (9/2)
2003 – Shanty Star (7/2 fav)

Queen´s Vase Key Trends

12/14 – Had never raced at Ascot before
10/14 – Had at least 2 previous career wins
10/14 – Placed last time out
9/14 – Placed favourites
9/14 – Had run over at least 1m4f before
6/14 – Ran at either Lingfield or Haydock last time out
6/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 - Trained by Mark Johnston
5/14 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
3/14 - Ridden by Ryan Moore
2/14 - Trained by Sir Michael Stoute (won it 4 times in all)
2/14 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
No winner from stall 1 in the last 11 years
The horse from stall 7 has been placed in 5 of the last 11 runnings (3 wins)
10 of the last 11 winners came from a single-figure stall
5 of the last 11 winners came from stalls 7 or 8
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 11/2

5.35 - Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

14/14 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/14 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/14 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
11/14 – Placed last time out
11/14 – Carried 9-0 or more
10/14 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/14 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
8/14 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/14 – Had run at Ascot before
6/14 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/14 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc last 6 runnings)
5/14 – Unplaced favourites
5/14 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/14 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/14 – Winning favourites
10 of the last 11 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 11 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 14 years is 10/1

 

 

 

 

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