Royal Ascot Trends – DAY FOUR (Fri 22nd June 2018)

As we move into day four at  ROYAL ASCOT there is plenty more to get excited about, but the two Group One's - The Coronation Stakes and the Commonwealth Cup - are the day's feature contest. As always we've got all the races covered with key trends and stats - use these to narrow down the field and find the best past profiles of recent winners.

 

2.30 - Albany Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (2yo) 6f

Albany Stakes Past Winners

2017 – Different League (20/1)
2016 – Brave Anna (16/1)
2015 – Illuminate (4/1 fav)
2014 – Cursory Glance (14/1)
2013 – Kiyoshi (8/1)
2012 – Newfangled (7/4 fav)
2011 – Samitar (16/1)
2010 – Memory (15/2)
2009 – Habaayib (16/1)
2008 – Cuis Ghaire (8/11 fav)
2007 – Nijoom Dubai (50/1)
2006 - Sander Camillo (4/1 fav)
2005 – La Chunga (10/1)
2004 – Jewel In The Sand (10/1)
2003 – Silca’s Gift (5/1)


Albany Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs
15/15 – Never raced at Ascot before
14/15 – Won by either a Feb or Mar foal
14/15 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
11/15 – Placed favourites
11/15 – Won their previous race
9/15 – Returned a double-figure price
7/15 – Won by trainers Channon (2), Hannon (3) or Noseda (2)
3/15 – Ran at Sandown last time
4/15 – Previous winner over 6f
4/15 – Winning favourites
The last 12 winners came from double-figure stalls
9 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 11-14 (inc)
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 12/1

 

3.05 - King Edward VII Stakes (Group 2) (Colts & Geldings) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m4f

King Edward VII Stakes Recent Winners

2017 – Permian (6/1)
2016 – Across The Stars (7/1)
2015 – Balios (3/1)
2014 – Eagle Top (12/1)
2013 – Hillstar (15/2)
2012 – Thomas Chippendale (9/2)
2011 – Nathaniel (11/4 fav)
2010 – Monterosso (7/2)
2009 – Father Time (9/1)
2008 – Campanologist (9/1)
2007 – Boscobel (7/1)
2006 – Papal Bull (5/4 fav)
2005 – Plea Bargain (9/2)
2004 – Five Dynasties (11/4 fav)
2003 – High Accolade (5/2 fav)

King Edward VII Stakes Key Trends

15/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
14/15 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the
12/15 – Had never raced at Ascot before
11/15 – Placed favourites
10/15 – Finished in the top three last time out
9/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
8/15 - Had won at least 2 previous races during their career
5/15 – Had already won a Listed or better class race
4/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Trained by John Gosden
3/15 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori
3/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
3/15 – Trained by Mark Johnston
No winner from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 4-8 (inc)
11 of the last 12 winners returned 9/1 or shorter
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/2

 

3.40 – The Commonwealth Cup (Group 1) (Class 1) (3yo) 6f

Only 3 previous runnings
Caravaggio won the 2017 running for trainer Aidan O’Brien
Quiet Reflection won the 2016 running for trainer Karl Burke
Muhaarar won the 2015 running for trainer Charles Hills

 

4.20 - Coronation Stakes (British Champions Series) (Group 1) (Fillies) (CLASS 1) (3yo) 1m

Coronation Stakes Past Winners

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2017 – Winter (4/9 fav)
2016 – Qemah (6/1)
2015 – Ervedya (3/1)
2014 – Rizeena (11/2)
2013 – Sky Lantern (9/2 jfav)
2012 – Fallen For You (12/1)
2011 – Immortal Verse (8/1)
2010 – Lillie Langtry (7/2 fav)
2009 – Ghanaati (2/1 fav)
2008 – Lush Lashes (5/1)
2007 – Indian Ink (8/1)
2006 – Nannina (6/1 jfav)
2005 – Maids Causeway (9/2)
2004 – Attraction (6/4 fav)
2003 – Russian Rhythm (4/7 fav)
2002 – Sophisticat (11/2)

Coronation Stakes Recent Trends

16/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
15/16 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
13/16 – Had between 1 and 2 previous runs that season
12/16 – Had won a Group 1 or 2 previously
11/16 – Had won over at least a 1 mile before
8/16 – Had run at Ascot before (3 winners)
8/16 – Ran in that season’s English 1,000 Guineas
7/16 – Were unplaced last time out
7/16 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
4/16 – Ran in that season’s Irish 1,000 Guineas
3/16 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
11 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter
No winners from stall 1 in the last 12 runnings
10 of the last 12 winners came from stalls 5 or higher
Just two horses placed from stall 2 (2nd ) in the last 12 runnings
6 of the last 12 winners were non UK-trained – French (3), Irish (3)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 5/1

 

5.00 - Sandringham Handicap (Listed Race) 1m


Sandringham Handicap Recent Winners

2017 – Con Te Partiro (20/1)
2016 – Persuasive (11/4 fav)
2015 – Osaila (13/2)
2014 – Muteela (9/2 fav)
2013 – Annecdote (11/1)
2012 – Duntle (4/1 fav)
2011 – Rhythm Of Light (8/1)
2010 – Timepiece (5/1)
2009 – Moneycantbuymelove (9/2 fav)
2008 – Festivale (10/1)
2007 – Barshiba (16/1)
2006 – Red Evie (5/1 co-fav)
2005 – Beautyandthebeast (9/2)
2004 – Celtic Heroine (11/1)
2003 – Hold To Ransom (11/1)
2002 – Tashawak (12/1)

 

Sandringham Handicap Trends

14/16 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
14/16 – Had between 2 and 4 previous runs that season
13/16 – Had never run at Ascot before
12/16 – Had won over at least 7f before
11/16 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/16 – Carried 8-11 or more
10/16 – Placed in their previous race
7/16 – Had exactly 3 runs already that season
7/16 – Won their last race
7/16 – Returned a double-figure price
5/16 – Winning favourites (1 co)
3/16 – Ridden by Jamie Spencer
3/16 – Ridden by Frankie Dettori (7 winners in all)
The average winning SP in the last 16 years is 17/2

 

5.35 - Duke of Edinburgh Handicap (CLASS 2) (3yo+ 0-105) 1m4f

Duke of Edinburgh Past Winners

2017 – Rare Rhythm (20/1)
2016 – Kinema (8/1)
2015 – Arab Dawn (6/1 jfav)
2014 – Arab Spring (11/4 fav)
2013 – Opinion (8/1)
2012 – Camborne (11/2 fav)
2011 – Fox Hunt (12/1)
2010 – Cill Rialaig (16/1)
2009 – Drill Sergeant (14/1)
2008 – Sugar Ray (8/1)
2007 – Pevensey (8/1)
2006 – Young Mick (28/1)
2005 – Notable Guest (4/1)
2004 – Wunderwood (15/2)
2003 – Waverley (14/1)

Duke of Edinburgh Key Trends

15/15 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
14/15 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
14/15 – Had at least 2 previous career wins to their name
12/15 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/15 – Placed last time out
10/15 – Had at least 2 previous runs that season
9/15 – Trained by Hughie Morrison (3), Mark Johnston (2) or Sir Michael Stoute (4)
8/15 – Had won over 1m4f before
7/15 – Had run at Ascot before
7/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
6/15 – Ran at either York or Epsom last time (inc 6 of last 7 runnings)
5/15 – Unplaced favourites
5/15 – Ran at Newmarket last time
4/15 – Trained by Sir Michael Stoute
2/15 – Winning favourites
11 of the last 12 winners came from a double-figure stall
7 of the last 12 winners returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
The average winning SP in the last 15 years is 11/1

 

 

 

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