Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 16th Nov 2019

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the BetVictor Gold Cup the feature racethe ITV cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races, plus are also covering two at Lingfield.

As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners.

 

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

 

12.05 - Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
12/15 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/15 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 years-old
9/15 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/15 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season

12.40 -

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RacingTV

14/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
9/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Went onto finish 1st or 2nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/14 – German bred
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
Owner JP McManus has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

1.15 - mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RacingTV

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14/14 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
10/14 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (3) or Wetherby (2) last time out
8/14 – Aged 6 years-old
7/14 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Trained by David Pipe
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan

1.50 - BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV

16/17 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
15/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
11/17  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/17  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/17 – French bred
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 6 years)
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
16/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
16/17 – Won by a UK-based trainer
13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before
12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/17 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 7 carried 10-13 or more)
11/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/17 – Aged 7 years-old
8/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/17 – Placed favourites
5/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/17 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 37 runners
Baron Alco (8/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1

3.00 – Spinal Injuries Association Big Bucks Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
14/17 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
13/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/17 – Officially rated 126 to 137
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
4 of the last 11 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018

3.30 - BetVictor Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

13/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Favourites unplaced
7/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/14 – Irish bred winners
6/14 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – French bred winners
2/14 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 - Winning favourites
Speedo Boy (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
2 of the last 6 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

11/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Rated between 102 and 112
10/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/13 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018

 

3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

12/12 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged 4 or older
9/12 – Won 5 or more times before
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race in 2017
Encrypted won the race in 2018

 

Follow Andy Newton Here - @NewtsDailyLays

 

 

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