Sat TV Trends: 16th Nov 2019

A huge day up at Cheltenham this Saturday with the BetVictor Gold Cup the feature race – the ITV cameras are at Prestbury Park to take in four of the races, plus are also covering two at Lingfield.

As always we've got all the key trends & stats to help you whittle down the runners.

Cheltenham Horse Racing Trends (RacingTV/ITV)

12.05 - Ballymore Novices´ Hurdle (Registered As The Hyde Novices´ Hurdle) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m5f ITV

15/15 – Priced 10/1 or shorter
15/15 – Had raced in the last 5 weeks
13/15 – Finished 1^st or 2^nd last time out
12/15 – Had won a NH Flat race earlier in their career
12/15 – Went onto run at the Cheltenham Festival that season (2 winners)
12/15 – Won by an Irish-bred horse
11/15 – Had raced at Uttoxeter (4), Chepstow (5) or Cheltenham (2) last time out
10/15 – Aged 5 years-old
9/15 – Won just once before (under rules)
9/15 – Had won over 2 ½m (or further) over hurdles before
8/15 – Won last time out
5/15 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
3/15 – Winning favourites
2/15 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/15 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/15 – Went onto win a race at the Cheltenham Festival that season

12.40 -

JCB Triumph Hurdle Trial (Registered as The Prestbury Juvenile Hurdle Race) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m87y RacingTV

14/14 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
13/14 – Won between 0-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Never raced at Cheltenham before
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter
11/14 – Won last time out
10/14 – Raced in the last 4 weeks
10/14 – Went onto race in that seasons Triumph Hurdle (Cheltenham Festival)
9/14 – Carried 11-2 or more in weight
9/14 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
7/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Went onto finish 1^st or 2^nd in the Triumph Hurdle
4/14 – German bred
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
3/14 – Raced at Chepstow last time out
3/14 – Trained by Philip Hobbs
2/14 – Trained by Alan King
2/14 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/14 – Went onto win the Triumph Hurdle (Defi Du Seuill 2017, Katchit 2006)
Owner JP McManus has won 2 of the last 3 runnings

1.15 - mallardjewellers.com Novices´ Chase Cl2 3m80y RacingTV

14/14 – Had won a race over at least 2m4f (fences) before
12/14 – Aged 7 or younger
11/14 – Returned 4/1 or shorter in the betting
11/14 – Favourites placed 1^st or 2^nd
11/14 – Had raced at Cheltenham before
10/14 – Won between 0-1 times over fences before
10/14 – Raced no more than twice over fences
10/14 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
9/14 – Raced at Cheltenham (3), Aintree (3) or Wetherby (2) last time out
8/14 – Aged 6 years-old
7/14 – Went onto run in the RSA Chase at the Cheltenham Festival that season (no winners)
7/14 – Won last time out
7/14 – Irish bred
5/14 – Winning favourites
4/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/14 – Trained by David Pipe
2/14 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan

1.50 - BetVictor Smartcards Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 3m3f110y ITV

16/17 – Had won a 3m+ race over fences before
15/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
14/17 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Aged 8 or younger
12/17 – Carried 10-13 or less in weight
11/17  – Had won between 3 and 5 times over fences before
10/17 – Irish bred
10/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
8/17 – Officially rated between 135 and 146
8/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
8/17 – Had won over fences at Cheltenham before
7/17 – Finished in the top 3 last time out
7/17  – Ran at either Cheltenham (4) or Sandown (2) last time out
6/17 – French bred
3/17 – Won last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites (1 co)
2/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
2/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/17 – Trained by Colin Tizzard
2/17 – Trained by Fergal O’Brien (2 of last 6 years)
Rock The Kasbah (9/1) won the race in 2018
Perfect Candidate (7/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 10 runnings is 10/1

2.25 – BetVictor Gold Cup Chase (Handicap) Grade 3 (CLASS 1) (4yo+) 2m4f110y ITV

17/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
16/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f over fences before
16/17 – Won by a UK-based trainer
13/17 – Returned 12/1 or shorter in the betting
12/17 – Had won at Cheltenham before
12/17 – Aged 6 or 7 years-old
12/17 – Had won just 2 or 3 times over fences before
11/17 – Trained by Pipe (3), Jonjo O’Neill (3), Nicholls (2) or Twiston-Davies (3)
11/17 – Carried 10-13 or less (But 4 of the last 7 carried 10-13 or more)
11/17 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/17 – Won by a horse in the first 3 in the betting
9/17 – Aged 7 years-old
8/17 – Won this on their seasonal reappearance
8/17 – Placed favourites
5/17 – Won their last race
4/17 – Trained by the Pipe stable
4/17 – Ran at Cheltenham last time out
3/17 – Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
3/17 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
3/17 – Ran at Carlisle last time out
2/17 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
1/17 – Irish-trained winners
The last winner aged in double-figures was in 1975
Paul Nicholls has saddled 10 placed horses (two winners, Al Ferof & Caid Du Berlais) from his last 37 runners
Baron Alco (8/1) won the race in 2018
The average winning SP in the last 17 years is 10/1

3.00 – Spinal Injuries Association Big Bucks Handicap Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 3m1f67y ITV

15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
14/17 – Carried 10-11 or less in weight
14/17 – Had between 2 and 5 previous hurdles wins
13/17 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/17 – Officially rated 126 to 137
12/17 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
12/17 – Placed favourites
12/17  – Ran at either Cheltenham (6), Aintree (3) or Chepstow (3) last time out
11/17 – Irish bred
11/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
11/17 – Ran within the last 4 weeks
9/17 – Had run at Cheltenham before
8/17 – Won their last race
7/17 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
7/17 – Returned 11/4 or shorter in the betting
4/17 – Won by the Pipe stable
1/17 – Won by an Irish-trained stable
The average winning SP in the last 10 years is 9/1
4 of the last 11 winners have had a claiming jockey riding
Anteros won the race in 2016 & was second in 2017
First Assignment won the race in 2018

3.30 - BetVictor Intermediate Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m5f26y ITV

13/14 – Won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/14 – Aged 5 or 6 years-old
11/14 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
9/14 – Raced in the last 7 weeks
8/14 – Returned a double-figure price
7/14 – Favourites unplaced
7/14 – Carried 10-13 or less
7/14 – Had run at Cheltenham before
7/14 – Irish bred winners
6/14 – Went onto finish in the top 4 in a race at the Cheltenham Festival
5/14 – Won last time out
4/14 – French bred winners
2/14 – Ridden by Sam Twiston-Davies
2/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/14 - Winning favourites
Speedo Boy (4/1 jfav) won the race in 2018
2 of the last 6 winners went onto be placed in the Martin Pipe Conditionals race at the Cheltenham Festival that season
2 of the last 10 winners went onto be placed in the Ladbrokes World Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ATR/ITV)

2.45 – Betway Churchill Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 1m2f ITV

11/13 – Returned 15/2 or shorter in the betting
11/13 – Rated between 102 and 112
10/13 – Ran in the last 6 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
9/13 – Won between 1-4 times before
9/13 – Favourites placed in the top two
8/13 – Aged 3 or 4 years-old
8/13 – Placed last time out
8/13 – Drawn in stall 5 or higher
4/13 – Winning favourites
3/13 – Trained by Saeed Bin Suroor
Master The World (10/1) won the race in 2017 and 2018

3.15 – Betway Golden Rose Stakes (Listed Race) (All-Weather Fast Track Qualifier) Cl1 (3yo+) 6f ITV

12/12 – Previous winner over 6f or 7f
11/12 – Didn’t win last time out
11/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/12 – Had raced in the last 6 weeks
10/12 – Aged 4 or older
9/12 – Won 5 or more times before
8/12 – Drawn in stall 6 or higher
8/12 – Unplaced last time out
8/12 – Unplaced favourites
4/12 – Ran at Doncaster last time out
3/12 – Winning favourites
Gifted Master (9/2) won the race in 2017
Encrypted won the race in 2018

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