Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 10th Feb 2018

We’ve plenty more Cheltenham Festival clues on offer this weekend with cracking cards at both Newbury and Warwick. The Denman Chase, Betfair Hurdle and Betfair Exchange Chase (Game Spirit) are the feature races at Newbury, while the ITV cameras also head to Warwick.

As always we've got all the ITV LIVE races covered for you key trends and top tips.

 

NEWBURY Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

1.50 - Betfair Cash Out Handicap Hurdle Cl2 3m52y ITV4

12/13 – Had won no more than 3 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Had run within the last 9 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 2 ½ miles (hurdles) before
9/13 – Aged 7 or younger
9/13 – Carried 10-13 or more
9/13 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/13 – Unplaced last time out
8/13 – Carried 11-1 or more
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Aged 7 years-old
6/13 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
5/13 – Had run over hurdles at Newbury before (no winners)
3/13 – French bred
3/13 – Won last time out
3/13 – Winning favourites
2/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Trained by Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Raced at Haydock last time out

2.25 - Betfair Denman Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 3m ITV4

12/14 – Had won at least 4 times over fences (UK) before
12/14 – Had won over at least 3m (fences) before
12/14 – Ran within the last 6 weeks
11/14 – Rated 150+
10/14 – Placed favourites
10/14 – Aged 8 or younger
10/14 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/14 – Winners that went onto race in that season’s Gold Cup (3 winners)
8/14 – Raced at either Cheltenham (4) or Kempton (4) last time out
8/14 – Had won over fences at Newbury before
6/14 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/14 – Won last time out
5/14 – Winning distance – ¾ length or less
5/14 – Winning favourites
5/14 – French bred
5/14 – Irish bred
3/14 – Returned a double-figure price
3/14 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
3/14 – Winners that went onto win the Gold Cup (Coneygree, Denman & Kauto Star)
2/14 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/14 – Won by the Pipe stable
6 of the last 11 winners were aged 7 years-old
The average SP in the last 11 runnings is 10/3

Note: 2009 running was staged at Kempton

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3.00 – Betfair Exchange Chase (Registered as The Game Spirit Chase) (Grade 2) Cl1 2m92y ITV4

13/13 – Priced 5/1 or shorter in the betting
12/13 – Placed favourites
12/13 – Aged 8 or younger
11/13 – Winners went onto run in that season’s Champion Chase (2 winners)
11/13 – Raced within the last 8 weeks
10/13 – Winning distance – 5 lengths or more
10/13 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
10/13 – Had won at least 4 times over fences before
7/13 – Won last time out
7/13 – Winning favourites
6/13 – French bred
6/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
6/13 – Had raced at Newbury (fences) before (4 winners)
4/13 – Ridden by Ruby Walsh
4/13 – Ran at Sandown last time out
3/13 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
2/13 – Ridden by Barry Geraghty
2/13 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Champion Chase
2/13 – Winners that went onto win that season’s Arkle Chase

3.35 – Betfair Hurdle (Handicap) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m110y ITV4

15/15 – Carried 11-7 or less in weight
14/15 – Aged 7 or younger
13/15 – Placed in the top 3 last time out
13/15 – Rated 130 or higher
12/15 – Won between 2-4 times over hurdles in the UK/IRE before
12/15 – Had raced within the last 8 weeks
12/15 – Winning distance – 3 lengths or less
12/15 – Came from the first 7 in the betting
12/15 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
12/15 – Aged either 5 or 6 years-old
10/15 – Carried 10-9 or less in weight
10/15 – Placed favourites
8/15 – Returned a double-figure price in the betting
7/15 – Irish bred
7/15 – Won last time out
7/15 – Came from the top 5 in the betting
6/15 – Aged 5 years-old (including 6 of last 9)
5/15 – Winning favourites
3/15 – Raced at Cheltenham last time out
3/15 – Trained by Nicky Henderson (has won the race 5 times in all)
3/15 – Trained by Gary Moore
2/15  - Raced at Leopardstown last time out
2/15 – Owned by JP McManus
1/15 – Went onto win the County Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival that season (Spirit Leader 2003)
20 of the last 21 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 15 runnings is 14.5/1

WARWICK Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RUK)

2.05 - olbg.com Mares´ Hurdle (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

Just 4 previous running
4/4 – Aged 6 or 7 years old
4/4 – Didn’t win last time out
4/4 – Favourites placed 1st or 2nd
4/4 – Won at least 4 times over hurdles before
4/4 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
4/4 – Carried between 11-0 and 11-5
3/4 – Had run in the last 6 weeks
3/4 – Rated between 141 and 149
3/4 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
2/4 – Winning favourites
2/4 – Irish bred
2/4 – Had run at Warwick before
The average winning SP in the last 4 runnings is 3/1
Trainer Willie Mullins has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

2.40 – Betway Kingmaker Novices´ Chase (Grade 2) Cl1 2m ITV4

8 previous runnings
8/8 – Aged 7 or younger
7/8 – Raced in the last 8 weeks
7/8 – Won over 2m fences before
6/8 – Had won no more than twice (fences) in the UK
6/8 – Rated between 137-147
6/8 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
4/8 – Aged 5 or 7 years-old
4/8 – Won last time out
3/8 – Unplaced favs
3/8 – Winning favourites
The last 4 winners have been 6 year-olds

Note: 2009 renewal was at Sandown

 

3.15 – All Cheltenham Live On RacingUK Warwick Castle Handicap Chase Cl2 (5yo+) 2m4f ITV4

8/8 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
8/8 – Irish (3) or French (5) bred
7/8 – Aged 9 or younger
7/8 – Favourites that finished in the top three
7/8 – Won between 1-3 times over fences before
6/8 – Didn’t win last time out
6/8 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
6/8 – Unplaced in their last race
6/8 – Had won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
5/8 – Carried 11-0 or more
3/8 – Winning favourites (1 joint)
Templehills (9/1) won the race in 2017
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 5/1

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