Sat TV Trends: 11th May 2024

This Saturday the ITV horse racing cameras are busy again - they are taking in eight races across three tracks.

At Haydock, the Swinton Hurdle is the feature, while it's also Derby/Oaks Trial Day at Lingfield. Then at Ascot, we've three more live ITV races, with the Victoria Cup one of the highlights.

Here at Geegeez, we've got all the key trends for you to help whittle down the runners and hopefully point you in the direction of a few winners

Haydock Horse Racing Trends (ITV/RacingTV)

3.15 - Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Registered As The Swinton Hurdle Race) (Grade 3) Cl1 2m ITV4

20/20 – Aged 5, 6 or 7 years-old
20/20 – Had won over at least 2m miles (hurdles before)
19/20 – Carried 11-5 or less
19/20 – Ran within the last 8 weeks
17/20 – Didn’t win last time out
17/20 – Had won between 2-3 times over hurdles before
13/20 – Carried 10-9 or less
12/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/20 – Irish bred
11/20 – Favourites that finished in the top 4
11/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
8/20 – Ran at Aintree last time out
8/20 – Returned a double-figure price
6/20 – Winning favourites
5/20 – Had run at the track before (hurdles)
4/20 – Trained by Evan Williams (4 of the last 10 runnings)
3/20 – Ran at Ayr last time out
2/20 – Ridden by Adam Wedge (2 of the last 5)
2/20 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/20 – Irish-trained winners

Ascot Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)

1.30 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% Handicap (Class 3) (4yo+ 0-95) 1m4f

11/11 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
11/11 – Had won over at least 1m2f before
10/11 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/11 – Won 2 or 3 times before
9/11 – Rated between 86 and 91
9/11 – Carried 9-4 or less
9/11 – Aged 4 years-old
9/11 – Didn’t win last time out
9/11 – Favourites placed in the top 3
5/11 – Drawn in stalls 4-8 (inc)
5/11 – Won on reappearance run (5 of last 6)
5/11 – Had raced at Ascot before
4/11 – Horses from stall 11 placed (1 winner)
4/11 – Winning favourites (3 of last 6)
2/11 – Trained by Roger Varian
2/11 – Ridden by Charles Bishop (2 of the last 5)

2.05 – Peroni Nastro Azzurro 0.0% EBF Fillies´ Handicap Cl2 1m ITV4

16/17 – Failed to win last time out
15/17 – Had won 2-3 times on the flat before
15/17 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
15/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Had won over a mile before
12/17 – Aged 4 years-old
12/17 – Carried 9-0 or more
11/17 – Priced 8/1 or shorter in the betting
10/17 – Had raced within the last 6 weeks
9/17 – Favourites that finished 4th or better
9/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
9/17 – Rated between 82-87
4/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
2/17 – Winning favourites (none in the last 10)
Farhh To Shy won the race in 2023

2.40 – Lavazza & Ascot 10 Year Anniversary Victoria Cup (Heritage Handicap) Cl2 7f ITV4

17/20 – Had run within the last 6 weeks
17/20 – Aged 5 or younger
16/20 – Winning distance – 2 lengths or less
16/20– Had won no more than 3 times
16/20 – Had won over 7f before
13/20 – Carried 8-10 or less
13/20 – Unplaced favourites
12/20 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/20 – Had run at Ascot before (6 winners)
9/20 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/20 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
4/20 – Winning favourites (1 joint) – only 1 in the last 14 years
9 of the last 10 winners came from a double-figure draw
Note: The 2005 running was staged at Lingfield

Lingfield Horse Racing Trends (ITV/SkySports Racing)

1.50 William Hill Epic Value Handicap Cl2 (4yo+ 0-105) 1m 3 1/2f ITV4

No past runnings
Trainer Simon Crisford has a 23% strike-rate with his runners at the track
Trainer Roger Varian has a 19% strike-rate with his runners at the track
Trainer Jamie Osborne is just 2 from 25 with his runners at the track
Jockey Rossa Ryan is just 1 from 16 riding at the track

2.25 – William Hill Oaks Trial Fillies’ Stakes (Listed Race) (Fillies) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

18/20 – Had won no more than once before
17/20 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
17/20 – Had no more than 3 career runs
17/20 – Placed in the top 4 last time out
13/20 – Went onto run in the Epsom Oaks (no winners, two seconds)
12/20 – Came from stall 5 or higher
10/20 – Had only won over a mile or shorter in the past
10/20 – Returned 5/2 or shorter in the betting
10/20 – Having first run of the season
10/20 – Won last time out
7/20 – Raced at either Newbury (3) or Newmarket (4) last time out
7/20 – Winning favourites
6/20 – Had won over 1m2f before
5/20 – Winning distance exactly 6 lengths
5/20 – Winners from stall 5
4/20 – Trained by John Gosden
3/20 – Trained by Ralph Beckett
2/20 – Trained by William Haggas
2/20 – Irish-trained winners

3.00 – William Hill Lingfield Derby Trial Stakes (Listed Race) (Colts & Geldings) Cl1 1m3f106y ITV4

21/21 – Had won no more than 3 times
17/21 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
16/21 – Went onto run in the Epsom Derby (1 winner, Anthony Van Dyck, 2019)
16/21 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
16/21 – Finished 4th or better last time out
15/21 – Favourites placed
14/21 – Had run within the last 4 weeks
9/21 – Drawn in stall 1 or 2
8/21 – Won last time out
6/21 – Trained by Aidan O’Brien
6/21 – Winning favourites
5/21 – Ran at Newbury last time out
4/21 – Ridden by Ryan Moore
High Rise (1998) and Anthony Van Dyck (2019) were the last winners to go onto win the Epsom Derby

3.35 – William Hill Chartwell Fillies´ Stakes (Group 3) (Fillies & Mares) Cl1 7f1y ITV4

17/17 – Aged 5 or younger
14/17 – Won between 1-4 times before
14/17 – Aged 4 or 5 years-old
13/17 – Had won over 7f before
13/17 – Drawn between stalls 3-8 (inc)
11/17 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
10/17 – Placed favourites
9/17– Irish-bred
8/17 – Won last time out
8/17 – Drawn in stall 3 (5) or 7 (3)
6/17 – Non UK-trained winners
6/17 – Ran at Newmarket last time out
3/17 – Returned 16/1 in the betting
4/17 – Winning favourites
6 of the last 14 winners returned double-figures in the betting
Trainer William Haggas has won 2 of the last 4 runnings

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