Saturday TV Trends

Sat TV Trends: 12th Jan 2019

More LIVE ITV racing action this Saturday as the cameras head to Warwick for the Classic Chase, plus they are also at Kempton Park with the Lanzarote Hurdle their main event.

As normal we are on-hand with all the key stats for the LIVE ITV races – hopefully they might help point you in the direction of a few winners.

 

Kempton Horse Racing Betting Trends (RUK/ITV)

2.05 – 32Red Casino Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 2m4f110y ITV4

5 previous runnings
5/5 – Placed 2nd or 3rd last time out
4/5 – Didn’t win last time out
4/5 – Won over at least 2m4f (fences) before
4/5 – Had won at least 4 times over fences
4/5 – Winning favourites
4/5 – Returned 15/8 or shorter in the betting
3/5 – Had won over fences at the track
The average winning SP in the last 5 runnings is 11/4
Waiting Patiently won the race 12 months ago
Trainer Nicky Henderson won the race in 2017 & 2016
Trainer Alan King won the race in 2015
Trainer Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014
Nicky Henderson has a 30% record with his chasers at the track
Paul Nicholls has a 28% record with his chasers at the track
Alan King is just 3 from 39 (8%) with her chasers at the track

 

2.40 – Unibet Lanzarote Hurdle (Handicap) (Listed Race) Cl1 2m5f ITV4

17/17 – Had won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
15/17 – Aged 7 or younger
15/17 – Had raced within the last 7 weeks
14/17 – Returned 10/1 or shorter in the betting
13/17 – Had won exactly 2 times over hurdles before
12/17 – Had never won a hurdles race over 2m4f or longer before
12/17 – Winning distance 3 lengths or less
12/17 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
12/17 – Winners that went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (no winners)
11/17 – Irish (6) or French (5) bred
10/17 – Carried 10-11 or less
10/17 – Aged 6 years-old
9/17 – Placed favourites
7/17 – Won last time out
6/17 – Had run at Kempton before (5 won)
5/17 -  Winning favourites
3/17 – Trained by Nick Williams
3/17 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/17 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
Trainer Gary Moore won the race in 1996, 1998 & 2007
Since 1980 (37 runnings) 32 winners have been aged 7 or younger
The winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 6/1

 

3.15 – Unibet Handicap Chase Cl2 3m ITV4

Just six previous runnings
6/6 – Didn’t win last time out
5/6 – Had run at the track before
5/6 – Unplaced last time out
4/6 – Had won over 3m (fences) before
4/6 - Won between 2-4 times (fences) before
5/6 – Aged 8 or 9 years-old
5/6 – Carried 11-0 or more
5/6 – Returned 6/1 or shorter in the betting
4/6 – Had raced in the last 3 weeks
4/6 – Placed favourites
2/6 – Ridden by Richard Johnson
2/5 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 6 is 5/1
Philip Hobbs won the race in 2014 & 2016

 

3.45 – Unibet Handicap Hurdle Cl3 2m ITV4

10/10 – Had won over at least 2m hurdles before
10/10 – Won between 1-3 times over hurdles before
10/10 – Aged 6 or older
8/10 – Favourites that finished in the top 2
8/10 – Aged 6 years-old
8/10 – Raced in the last 5 weeks
7/10 – Returned 9/2 or shorter in the betting
5/10 – Finished 4th or better last time out
5/10 – Irish bred
3/10 – Winning favourites
2/10 – Returned a double-figure price
2/10 – Trained by Nicky Henderson
1/10 – Won last time out
The average winning SP in the last 9 runnings is 9/2

 

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Warwick Horse Racing Trends (RUK/ITV)

1.50 – McCoy Contractors 2019 Construction News Award Finalist Hampton Novices´ Chase (Listed Race) Cl1 3m ITV4

11/11 – Returned 5/1 or shorter in the betting
11/11 – Had won between 0-2 times over fences
11/11 – Finished in the top 4 last time out
10/11 – Had raced in the last 7 weeks
9/11 – Had won between 1-2 times over fences
9/11 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
9/11 – Favourites that finished in the top 3
8/11 – Aged 7 years-old
7/11 – Returned 9/4 or shorter in the betting
7/11 – Had won over 3m (or further) chase
7/11 – Won last time out
6/11 – Irish bred
2/11 – Trained by Alan King
2/11 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
2/11 – Ridden by Daryl Jacob
2/11 – Winning favourites
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 11/4

 

 

2.25 – Ballymore Leamington Novices´ Hurdle Grade 2 Cl1 2m5f ITV4

12/12 – Returned 8/1 or shorter in the betting
12/12 – Had won over at least 2m4f (hurdles) before
12/12 – Had won between 1-2 times over hurdles before
12/12 – Finished 1st or 2nd last time out
11/12 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
11/12 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
10/12 – Went onto run at that season’s Cheltenham Festival
8/12 – Winning distance – 3 ½ lengths or less
8/12 – Irish bred
8/12 – Won last time out
6/12 – Winning favourites
6/12 – Placed favourites
6/12 – Aged 5 years-old
2/12 – Went onto win at that season’s Cheltenham Festival (No Refuge, 2005 RSA Novices’ Hurdle, The New One, 2013 Neptune)
The average winning SP in the last 8 years is 3/1

 

 

3.00 – McCoy Constructors Civil Engineering Classic Handicap Chase (Grade 3) Cl1 (5yo+) 3m5f ITV4

13/13 – Raced within the last 6 weeks
12/13 – Had won a chase race over at least 3m
12/13 – Raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Carried 11-2 or less in weight
10/13 – Winners that came from outside the top 3 in the betting market
9/13 – Officially rated between 129-140
9/13 – Aged between 7-9 years-old
8/13 – Won between 2-5 times over fences before
8/13 –  Won by a horse aged 9 or older
8/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
8/13 – Won by an Irish bred horse
8/13 – Had raced at Warwick (hurdles, chase, NH Flat) previously
7/13 – Favourites placed
7/13 – Placed in the top 3 in their last race
7/13 – Returned a double-figure price
6/13 – Had run at either Cheltenham (3) or Newbury (3) in their last race
5/13 – Winners that went onto run in that season’s Grand National (One For Arthur won both races in 2017)
3/13 – Trained by Paul Nicholls
3/13 – Won their last race
2/13 – Trained by Alan King
The average winning SP in the last 13 runnings is 10.5/1

 

 

3.35 – Pertemps Network Handicap Hurdle (Series Qualifier) Cl2 3m1f ITV4

13/13 – Winning distance – 4 lengths or less
12/13 – Had won between 1-4 times over hurdles before
11/13 – Carried 11-0 or less
11/13 – Had raced within the last 5 weeks
10/13 – Had won over at least 3m (hurdles) before
10/13 – Went onto finish unplaced in the Pertemps Hurdle at the Cheltenham Festival
10/13 – Had never raced over hurdles at Warwick before
10/13 – Officially rated between 126-142
10/13 – Returned 9/1 or shorter in the betting
7/13 – Came from the top 3 in the betting
6/13 – Placed favourites
5/13 – Won last time out
2/13 – Ran at Bangor last time out
2/13 – Won by trainer Nigel Twiston-Davies
2/13 – Trained by Jonjo O’Neill
2/13 – Ridden by Paddy Brennan
2/13 – Winning favourites
7 of the last 8 winners were aged 8 or younger
The average winning SP in the last 8 runnings is 8/1

 

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